last 16 of a 80 entry MTT, i have a 120k stack when blinds are 2k 4k
i am dealt KcQc in late position, with folds round to me. i raise to 12k.
called by villain on the button.
the villain has played all 5 of the last 5 hands and has shown 99, AJ, KK, QQ, AK in a dealer dealt casino game. No joke.
Flop comes AcKd3c
i bet 25k
villain raises to 55k.
i tank. i rule out set of kings as i have 1 it seems unlikely. i cant put him on a set of 3s as he has not been playing low pairs aggressively nor floating them. He only just had AK and for no logical reason i find that unlikely to be his holding. i think he is maybe relying on the strength of what he has shown last 5 hands to bluff me off the pot. perhaps he is on a decent Ace ... AQ, or maybe an A10, that he wouldnt have 3 bet preflop. A3 would not be in his opening range even on the button.
i would be behind to the A of course, but would have outs, any club for a nut flush, runner runner for a straight, a K or a J, and i am beating a bluff already.
then there is fold equity. what is he putting me on? i have a tight image.
i think if i shove, a pair of aces goes away. 2 pairs, thouh i have ruled this out rightly or wrongly goes away, and im happy to see if he has a J high club flush draw.
the worst case is that he has AA and a set, and even then i have a 1 in 3 chance at showdown.
i figure a decent ace and hes bettjng to see where he is.
So i shove. winning this pot puts me in a strong position as tournie chip leader.
snap calls with pocket Aces and a set the worst case scenario. i think against any other 2 cards my jam gets through
no clubs or other outs hit for me.
so bad play, or aggressive and unlucky?
It would be nice to post a converted hand history next time with weaktight for example, because than is your hand easier to read. Also, I recommend reading our https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=267242 as well.
Based that you have hit 2nd pair and the nut flush against someone that played a lot of hands I wouldn’t mind stacking off here. It’s too bad he has a monster this time.
Cheers,
SDK1987
Originally posted by SDK1987
It would be nice to post a converted hand history next time with weaktight for example, because than is your hand easier to read. Also, I recommend reading our https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=267242 as well.Based that you have hit 2nd pair and the nut flush against someone that played a lot of hands I wouldn’t mind stacking off here. It’s too bad he has a monster this time.
Cheers,
SDK1987
"Dealer dealt casino game", I think it was live 
Agree on the rest!
thanks guys.
bookai, i mention dealer dealt because there is a distinction to be drawn between that, player dealt casino games, and home games, all of which are live. eyebrows would have been raised at the villain's hand history!
Think its just bad luck and you reasoned it out well, when you say "He only just had AK and for no logical reason i find that unlikely to be his holding. " I'm sure that you know that it as likely to be have AK, as previous hands do not effect chance of being delt it, but he would most likely have 3 bet it.