A8o, can I call river here?

I imagine this should be a call.

Opening for 2,5bb from btn is a waste of value imo at nl2 (they tend to call very wide)

What is very wide? My steal succes from the button is 50%. So all in all I dont win money by stealing with 2.5bb open. So you opt more for 3x open, getting more folds on the flop by their wide range or for 2x open to get insta profit preflop?

People shouldn't be defending as wide as 50% vs a 2.5x so i say keep it at 2.5x let them make the mistakes and play in position vs those ranges. Don't forget 50% is Vs both SB and BB. If you checked your seal success BTN vs BB or BTN vs SB its likely up around 70%+.

I would have no issue playing in position vs wider ranges as most value at these stakes is postflop anyway. And a 2.5x allows you to defend vs wide 3bet ranges better. So all in all i think 2.5x at micros on the BTN is perfect and i would 3x every other position.

Thanks for answering in my topics.

How do I get the steal succes on the btn for the general population on small blind or big blind in pokertracker 4?

Sorry i don't use PT i use HEM , cant you check it in a popup ? i' m not the best person to ask about huds myself tbh. I would think 50% steal success vs both SB and BB combined is pretty good though.

Maybe someone will explain further

I found it already. 86 hands so we can't really rely on his stats i guess. So we have to use general population tendency.

Why does most everyone focus on stealing 1.5 bb when there's 200 bb (added stacks of SB and BB) to win postflop? You don't mind getting called, not even with 97o.

The real question is the original one (because it is about the 18 bb in the pot offering 2.5:1). Do we call the river bet? It is close. My gut feeling says fold.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Why does most everyone focus on stealing 1.5 bb when there's 200 bb (added stacks of SB and BB) to win postflop? .

Because poker is a game of stealing blinds and every decision is important .Preflop sizing will change our 3bet defending ranges and the postflop spr. Might as'well look at all aspects of a hand when reviewing it.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Why does most everyone focus on stealing 1.5 bb when there's 200 bb (added stacks of SB and BB) to win postflop? You don't mind getting called, not even with 97o.

The real question is the original one (because it is about the 18 bb in the pot offering 2.5:1). Do we call the river bet? It is close. My gut feeling says fold.

I respect your comments Yohan.

I like to getting back at my original question. Can you reason more about why do you think it is a fold and what reads I can develop to make this close fold/call?

Is he capable of bluffing or is he always value betting , if hes value betting doubt he value bets worse hands. Thats really what your looking for is what his river bets mean and does he choose certain sizes with certain strength hands . Does he always pot big hands for value for example or does larger bets mean bluffy.

Good luck proving what's correct pre guys ♦
Snowie 3.5Xes on same rake sttructures vs itself top players go anywhere from 2bb-3bb
so just do whatever suits you, adjust to tables and build your plan around your ranges+sizings

River I'd tend to call vs BB fold vs SB
try to do it yourselves but I'm pretty sure you'll have a real hard time coming up with hands that can bluff that don't have showdown value when he calls you in the SB
(And people don't turn stuff into a bluff much at NL2)

Originally posted by BingoWings
Is he capable of bluffing or is he always value betting , if hes value betting doubt he value bets worse hands. Thats really what your looking for is what his river bets mean and does he choose certain sizes with certain strength hands . Does he always pot big hands for value for example or does larger bets mean bluffy.

Nice questions. I dont think we should go to much in detail about pre-flop. I'm interested in my river decision(s). Cause I make the most and more expensive mistakes in that kinda area.

Originally posted by LemOn36
River I'd tend to call vs BB fold vs SB
try to do it yourselves but I'm pretty sure you'll have a real hard time coming up with hands that can bluff that don't have showdown value when he calls you in the SB
(And people don't turn stuff into a bluff much at NL2)

Let's try. People dont bluff that much. I think this is true. Also people fail to valuebet thinly i think.

If he doesnt 3-bet from the sb and there is no aggressive bb which is most of the time the case, he caps his range to weak Ax, Kx, and Qx. I suggest that most villains will 3-bet QQ+, AK. People are tight and some regulars have a 3bet bluff range but most of the tighter opponents are tight preflop.

So he has some weak stuff on the flop. I got the Ace so there are less aces in the deck. The villain elects to bet the turn. I checked cause i hoped i would get at least one random spazzy bluff.

So I suggest his river range is some Qx, some Ax with a diamond but only the A♦ will valuebet this river and sometimes the K♦ valuebets. And some kinda poket pair that has sometimes a diamond in it. But now I am faced by a river decision. The general population doesnt bluff but also the general population is incapable of valuebetting with T♦, J♦, so if he bets he has most of the time K:diamond+. If we go back to preflop, we would expect to have getting a 3-bet by AK:diamond. And since I block and the board is bloking his better Kx(Qx is blocked). I think he might be more on the bluffy side than on the value side.

But since this is against the population tendencie. Getting such odds and we need to take an offensive approach. So guess his range. I can't come up with logical bluff combos that had showdown value on the river. So I guess I have to fold here.

Originally posted by BingoWings

Originally posted by YohanN7
Why does most everyone focus on stealing 1.5 bb when there's 200 bb (added stacks of SB and BB) to win postflop? .

Because poker is a game of stealing blinds and every decision is important ...

No, it is foremost not, though current trends want to make you believe that. Because preflop is the part of the game somewhat amenable to mathematical analysis if one cheats a bit. If it were Limit Holde'm, there would be a grain of truth to it. But the deeper the stacks, the less important stealing blinds becomes. Stealing blinds is a very small part of this game. That said, preflop strategy is important, but discussion on hands ought not deteriorate to relatively speaking unimportant preflop decisions.

Look at it like this:

Preflop we open with AA: to 4bb against a fish because we have found his treshold for calling if we open at 4 to 5 bb. The fish is on bb and we are on bu.

The flop comes in our favor. The size of the pot is 8.5bb, The size of the pot on the turn is 8.5bb + 6 bb + 6bb = 20.5bb. The size on the river is 20.5bb + 15bb + 15bb = 50.5. The river is in our favor and we bet full pot because we want to stack him and there is no money left. So at showdown we win 50.5 + 50.5 + 50.5 = 151.5bb(we stack him for 75bb. So now I don't want to do your work but I have a question. With the same ratio of the pot, what do you win when you open raise to 2bb on the btn against this fish at the bb?

This is why static ranges and static bet sizes for blinds stealing purposes aren't as juicy and worth working on as most believe. By the same token, if the blinds are really bad, you really don't mind if they call your "button blind steal". It might be more profitable if they call rather that fold regardless of what you have. You don't desperately want the 1.5 bb. You wan their stacks.

that stuff real simple guys
you mark people
and when you have a green/fish dude in the blinds you raise to 3bb instead of your usual 2-2.5bb with everything
after a while you start doing that automatically