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Middle set, can I 3bet here?

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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
SB: 166.4 BB (VPIP: 26.78, PFR: 21.86, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 192)
Hero (BB): 138 BB
UTG: 99.8 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
MP: 54.6 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♠ 9♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 3♣ 5♠
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (6.4 BB, 2 players) J♣
Hero bets 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

River: (14.4 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets 9 BB, BTN raises to 28 BB, Hero ???

Spoiler

BTN shows Q♣ T♥ (Straight, King High)
(Pre 45%, Flop 3%, Turn 18%)
Hero mucks 9♠ 9♣ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 55%, Flop 97%, Turn 82%)
BTN wins 67.4 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

Pre: Standard call

Flop: Would go for a check/call as it is a pretty dry board.

Turn: Board gets a little more wet, so I go for a 2/3 pot bet, expecting a lot of folds.

River: I bet a little under 2/3 pot again, I know that villain is not too aggresive this far, but he decides to raise, his range looks like this: 100%Value, 0%Bluff... So he could have KJ, QT and I don't know what else makes sense given his passive flop and turn line. Still I think I underrepped my hand a lot so I really didn't know if I could shove this hand profitably for value...

As played I chose the low-variance route and I called.


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7 replies
BingoWings
Joined: 14.04.2017

I think 3betting is a mistake villain can definitely raise worse for value like KJ ,but any hands you beat cant call a 3bet .

I don't just think calling is the low variance decision i think it's 100% the correct play here
if you 3bet the river and get it in you see QT pretty much always.

KK JJ bet the flop but say for some reason he slow played a flopped set or KK JJ he cant now call a river 3bet with those hands. Villains playing 16/8 so hes far from a whale that's going to be paying off with 2 pair in these spots.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Sick move from villain but without watching spoiler, I'd call off and make a note. If villain here has QT we know he/she can be passive.

When watching spoiler: Make a note. The thing is, I believe you have enough equity for calling and sometimes you need to accept your loss here, can't win every pot.


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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

Thanks both! I am happy I realized it in time, because I was really thinking about 3-betting as my hand was so underrepped, but then again I only beat KJ that might call.

I made a note indeed, very passive player, good target for 2 barreling top pairs for value!


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

No.


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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

Scary


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

I'd go for a turn check here and just mix it up between cc and cr - probably cr mostly at NL5
He either hit a jack or a draw and very likely should bet now himself
Or he has just give ups that he can delay cbet now to rep the jack
or weak showdown value like Ahi, 66 etc. we're getting one street out of anyways

But I think you pretty much figured that out yourself with saying you get a lot of folds here


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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

Thanks Lemon! Didn't think about the turn c/r, as I was afraid that he would just c-back again giving another free card.


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