[0.25€ Spin] Flop raise IP with TPTK on high board

Yes, if hes 3bet shoving on the flop you have to call. But on the flop you should raise a little bigger and Im happy to take down the pot right there. 9 on the turn is an interesting card, it does not change much, but it could be hitting his range from his preflop actions with something like J9 or Q9 that decided to float on the flop. On the river you beat QJ which he could have but Im folding either way, I think he has too many 9s here and the river allin is a value bet

Thanks for the tips on the sizing, it definitely makes sense now that I think of it - He's not folding lower Axs (we get value) and every other hand he could bet with is either a lower pair or a draw, which we should charge. And yes, happy to take it down there.

As presented, I think I agree with you on the river fold, he has many more 9s than As in his range.

Thanks for the input

9x sounds not to likely I think on the river. Only A9 he could play like this and with 2 pair+ he would stack of on the flop I think. I think he could have some weaker hands and most 2 pair combos are counter fitted as well and I would call here. A fish can easy over play top pair that you beat here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Okay, seeming how there are disagreeing opinions about the 9s, I have taken some equity calculations:

When he calls the flop raise, I give him the following range:

I haven't included high pocket pairs and strong Aces because I think those raise pre (AT is debatable, but I think he raises AK-AJ for sure). I haven't included two-pair+ hands (KT, QJ) because I think they raise on the flop. I am probably giving him a tighter range than he has, because I can see him calling weak suited Qs with a backdoor flush draw.

Against this range, we're more than 80% favorite (more like 85), so awesome.

When he calls the turn, I give him the following range:

As you can see, not many 9s, and we are about 72% favorite. Even removing the weak aces, we are 69% percent favorite, and that is counting that he doesn't raise A9 and Q9.

Now, on the river, if I reduce his range to the hands I would maybe shove with:

We are slightly behind (49%). So, if he is bluffing even a little, or overvaluing his Axs, it's a call whether he has a 9 or not.

Do you agree with this assessment? I'd really like to know, as spots like these can cost tons of money.

I think we can definitely put some more hands in flop raise chart like, KT which is trapping and I dont think would be raising flop, T9, J9, some Qx as we are giving him 4.25 to 1 odds to call.
And I think he would not call turn with K9, KJ as he would fold those, KQ is a maaaybe if hes loose enough since the board is very wet.
Now that I think about it, on the turn he would raise any 2 pairs , since he doenst want to see no Ten, King or any other card which pairs the board and is not in his hand and most of his bluffs are either shoving or folding, not calling. So it really narrows down to Ax which is not 2 pair or QT
EDIT : and definitely KT as well, forgot about it ♦

I agree that he folds K9 OTT, and with adding some more Qx OTF, and yes probably with KT trapping too. I think we are still ahead OTF.

Not sure about the raise OTT though, in general most players at this level are pretty passive OTT with 2 pairs and tend to raise/shove OTR (maybe biased, sample of only about 200 spins).

About the bluffs, I agree that he shoves them, but perhaps OTR and not OTT, not as a raise. I don't se how he gets to the river with any bluffs, and bluffing in that board is kind of nuts except maybe semibluffing with clubs (which I'm blocking with A♣:). So yeah I agree with you that Ax is his most likely hand here, which surprisingly was my original thought process in-game.

Thank you both for the interesting discussion! :f_drink::f_drink:

Dont forget that the pot after your turn bet is 16bbs and he only has 20 left behind and with any two pairs Im sure he would shove it with this board texture or maybe im just giving villain too much credit ♦

My experience is different than that. I'd definitely shove with 2pair OTT, but I have seen some pretty passive play. If he had like 1/2 pot left if he called OTT then yeah, I'd agree with you, but at this SPR I think he could play 2pair passive.