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UTG KA top set vs river shove

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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

I have no information about the villain other than he is not playing with a full stack.

partypoker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.3 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
SB: 89 BB (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 23)
Hero (UTG): 163 BB
MP: 133.8 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
CO: 117.4 BB (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 26)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ A♥

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) K♠ 2♣ 7♥
SB bets 4.1 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.1 BB

Turn: (15.7 BB, 2 players) T♦
SB bets 8.7 BB, Hero calls 8.7 BB

River: (33.1 BB, 2 players) K♦
SB bets 73.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 73.7 BB

SB shows 2♠ 2♦ (Full House, Twos full of Kings)
(Pre 50%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K♥ A♥ (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 50%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 171.5 BB

What range can I put the villain on? Since he is a short stack I would assume that his range has enough weaker kings (KQ, KJ) and mid-pair bluffs 88-JJ to make this a profitable call. The bet sizing also seemed pretty bluff-y.

Or should I always fold this in a vacuum, really not sure what to think.


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3 replies
xiaohetao
Joined: 29.05.2018

I would have a very hard time to fold this hand otr. But in my experience, it is unlikely that weak players would be bluffing when they make this kind of bet.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

That bet on the river is almost never a bluff. Playing the entire hand out of position and betting like that is a strong indicator that you're up against a pretty strong hand. KT, 22, 77 are hands he'd play this way. I believe TT he wouldn't lead the flop and 88-JJ don't match the way he played the river imo.
Neverthless, you're hand is to strong to fold at anypoint of the road.
Normally I'd put a raise on the flop/turn to be sure what I'm facing.

Against a range of 22, 77, TT, AK, KT+ you're 58% favorite. Once you're getting roughly 41% pot odds on the river, your call is good.
If you believe he'd 3bet pre-flop AK, you're 40% favorite. Removing the TT leaves you flipping.


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

I can't fault you for this one,
he's not fullstacked, took a donk looking line, small sample, and he managed to rep a random king so well here I'll probably sigh call it off also and fold weaker Kx


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