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bluff catching with a set

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RemiRem
Joined: 27.12.2009

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (SB): 185.8 BB
BB: 113.8 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG: 171.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 55.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 233.4 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 62.50, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 8)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♠ 9♣

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 2♣ 8♦ 6♦
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets 4.8 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, fold, CO calls 8.2 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 17 BB, CO calls 17 BB

River: (70 BB, 2 players) 9♥
Hero checks, CO bets 30.8 BB, Hero ?

villain is 62/62, but only 8 hands. To be honest, I did not looked at the stats in this hand. Anyway his raise preflop probably indicates pairs, suited connectors, broadway connectors, witch includes 10 in a lot of hands i guess. Can we justify a call here on river? He could play like this if he had TT.


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4 replies
MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

You need to be good 23% of the time here. I think you got it but I'm curious what others will say.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I 3bet this pre.
Check-raise OTF makes some sense because you're OOP and there are cards you dont want to see. But go bigger.
Check-call is a good line as well if you want to lead the turn.
As played Im probably checking the turn if I dont want to call the river.
River is a tough spot. He's looking at the same board as you are, so an overpair or a lower set is checking behind here I think. On the other hand you checked on a scare card, which might induce a bluff.
Im probably folding, but you're getting a good price, so its close.


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RemiRem
Joined: 27.12.2009

I did fold there, but was thinking about this hand now. Probably value bet/ fold is ok for this river, i would not get bluffed out and might get calls from overpair, two pairs.


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

You are deep. I would just call the flop. if you were 100BB and you are confident he has some draws (from the way he plays the hand and stupid bet sizing this looks like a draw which wants to see cheap turn) you can raise the flop and Jam safe turns for protection. Being that deep you have to fold 99 in case he re-raises the flop.

That deep, i would just call the flop and reevaluate the turn. If he bets again this turn - i am calling again and mb calling the river as well as the flush draw missed and we beat all two pairs/lower sets/stupid top pairs and overpairs.

As played your turn bet is small. You are giving great odds. 22-25 BB would be better imo.


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