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Overpair + OESD get raised flop

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QnS1086
Joined: 05.09.2008
Elite Grinder

BTN: 107 BB (VPIP: 65.22, PFR: 19.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 139)
SB: 128.6 BB (VPIP: 28.44, PFR: 21.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, Hands: 211)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.20, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.79, Hands: 1,458)
UTG: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 33.85, PFR: 17.31, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 390)
Hero (MP): 163.8 BB
CO: 247.2 BB (VPIP: 21.98, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 91)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♣ 4♦ K♥ 5♥

fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.4 BB, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (11.2 BB, 3 players) 2♦ 8♥ 3♣
SB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, fold, SB raises to 34.6 BB, Hero calls 26.6 BB

Turn: (80.4 BB, 2 players) T♦
SB bets 76.4 BB, fold

Villain foreign reg on PS fr/es/pt => he should be decent.

Sets are unlikely, maybe half combinaisons of 88xx (he would just call with some of them)
His range is mostly made of wraps.


Tableau : 2♦8♥3♣
       Equity   Gagne  Egalité
MP2    58.91%  47.45%   11.46% { KcKh5h4d }
MP3    41.09%  29.63%   11.46% { A45*/ds , A45*/ss, 456*/ds, 456*/ss, 88**/ds }

Turn it seems I forget my balls...Worst case scenario:


Tableau : 2♦8♥3♣ T♦
       Equity   Gagne  Egalité
MP2    49.05%  44.10%    4.95% { KcKh5h4d }
MP3    50.95%  46.00%    4.95% { Ad45*/ds , Ad45*/ss, 456d*/ds, 456d*/ss, 88**/ds }

Ranges put in Equilab may not be accurate (I don't know how to put the top 15% of 88xxds for instance, and there are surely too many combos of wraps)


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

I think you should just shove the flop or fold. You don't achieve much by calling as on the turn you have SPR around 1 and it's hard to fold to any turn card. The questions is how wide his raising range is, and how would he play 88 normally. If he is kind of reg who attacks boards I would just get it in. The only hand you are really behind is a set and against that you have still decent equity with 10 outs. The key is in his raise cbet stat. If it's close to 20 or more, easy get it in. If it's less than 10 (decent sample size) it gets closer.


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