[Closed] FR weak ace

Hello!

Too bad that the advanced Wa/Wb article hasn't been written/released yet :(. Anyways, stats for UTG1 would help a lot here, I don't know why they're like the only ones missing :(.

On flop a raise is the only option, of course it gets very ugly when you get 3-bet. I'm guessing he'll 3-bet there with a set, two pair, Ax or a flush draw (I don't think he'll do it with a gutshot or Tx, I don't expect him to have AA either although it's kind of plausible, I'll keep it out of my calculations).

Ok so we have to call flop, our equity in turn is:

Board: Ac Th 8d 5h
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 31,142% 17,675% 26,933% 55,392% Ad3d
Player 2: 68,858% 55,392% 26,933% 17,675% AA, TT, 55, A2s+, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, 9h8h, A2o+

And therefore EV is:

EV = (possible winnings) * (probability of winning) - (possible losses) * (probability of losing)

EV = 7,5BB * 0,31 - 1BB * 0,69

EV = +1,635BB

which means that the turn is an easy call :).

On the river however it gets very tricky because I'm not sure if he's capable of betting a busted flush draw here. If he is, we're getting 25% equity which is more than enough for a call, if he isn't, we're pretty much dead :(. But if we don't have any reads on him/he is unknown, I would definitely go for a call on the river for information/because of the possibillity his draw missed.

Regards,

Primzi

great,thanks for that,where do you get the equity calcs from?

Hello!

You can calculate your equity using the Pokerstrategy Equilator.

I also advise you to read this article.

Regards,

Primzi