AKo 3bet pot cbet or not ?

I like that you bet on the flop because we have the stronger range, although I think betting more may be ideal, What are we trying to accomplish with our bet? We arn't quite betting for value because we have over-cards with a gut-shot also when we bet 1/3 pot on the flop villain can call us with a wider range of hands and not just his Qx.

He has a weak pair 25% of the time,
Ace high 10% of the time,
PP below top pair 12.5% of the time,
no made hand and middle pair a small portion of the time,

I think with a larger bet we may get those hands to fold and he will continue with his Qx. Whereas when we bet smaller hes calling with more and we are OOP with no made hand.

OTT, we bet small again this bet should be much higher or just a check, what are we trying to accomplish?

Are we betting for value?
Are we trying to buy our way to a showdown?

Villain has a premium made hand about 45% of the time on the turn, another diamond comes on the turn and the board is getting wet, I think he would raise with most of his premiums for protection. I think if you bet 2/3 pot on flop and a bigger size on the turn you are putting immense pressure on even solid top pair hands while still having Equity to make a straight or possibly the best hand on the river.

Originally posted by Casey55

OTT, we bet small again this bet should be much higher or just a check, what are we trying to accomplish?

Are we betting for value?
Are we trying to buy our way to a showdown?

I would bet my strong made hands the same way to set up a river shove.But i don't think my bet sizing's are the best in a lot of situations and do need working on.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA

Originally posted by Casey55

OTT, we bet small again this bet should be much higher or just a check, what are we trying to accomplish?

Are we betting for value?
Are we trying to buy our way to a showdown?

I would bet my strong made hands the same way to set up a river shove.But i don't think my bet sizing's are the best in a lot of situations and do need working on.

if we look at the stats this board hits his range pretty good . Forgive me for slight inaccuracies I am trying to improve with flopzilla and ranges sorry If I confuse anyone and the numbers don't match up to previous post.

, QQ-88,AKs,AQs,AQo,AJs,ATs,KQs,KJs,QJs,JTs.

this is what I give him , I think he raises AA,KK and AKo preflop and maybe calls IP with AKs sometimes
he has :

Flopzilla stats villain's range has on flop

a set=12% of the time
top pair =27.5% of the time,
middle pair + weak pair= 33% of the time
JJ=11% of the time
Ace-high + no made hand=15% of the time

and thats about it .

Our range looks very strong like QQ+ and AK Pre-flop., Our range should be ahead OTF, looking at Villains Range it hits this board pretty good, so what are we trying to accomplish? are we looking for fold equity , or trying to build a pot for value ?

Your flop play seems fine but OTT I don't see Hero having an over-pair or set of Q's when we choose to bet 1/3PSB on this turn with 2 diamonds and straight draws on the board. I think we should be just betting this hand from flop on-wards for fold equity, if we hit our hand along the way we can re-evaluate but betting 1/3 flop, 1/3 turn isn't going to get much to fold and I don't think we want to get to river with Ace-high and try to bluff given our line of play against a range that has a good made hand a large portion of the time. Villain has decently strong made hand about 50% of the time which includes top pairs, sets and JJ. I would have liked to see how the hand progressed if you had bet anything above half pot OTT.

On a final note I think calling his raise may have been an option, the pot is $4.19 and its $0.70 to call. your getting pot odds of

roughly 6:1

you have 4 outs for a straight
and an Ace or a King may give you the best hand

10x2=20% = 4:1

Pot odds are higher than our odds to hit our hand.

If villain has AQ and we hit an A on the river that is bad but if an A comes and he holds AJ,KQ,QJ, we are ahead.Not sure, what do you think about a call?

I think b/f as a blocker around 1/3p again on the A or K is probably better than check calling the problem with trying to bluff catch on an A or K.Is that villain likely isn't turning any of those hands in to a bluff if we check but rather taking the showdown value.Where as villain can call with some of those hands as a bluff catch themselves and for 1/3p they likely look you up relatively wide.I don't think they call a shove with worse to often and i don't think at these stakes they come over the top with worse all that often either.Because of the positions we probably shouldn't have to many 3 barrel bluffs on this board.But Vs say co or btn where they have more Tx it would likely be far better.But ye i'm really not sure about this spot myself as i cant really see an option that stands out to me that's clearly better than another option.

Hello Reds,

Pf it's ok to call vs decent UTG. As played, your 4bet was a little too big imo.
Flop it's ok to bet small, but I won't bet again the turn without improving. As played I'd check/fold the turn.
Cheers.

Originally posted by Torcato
Hello Reds,

Pf it's ok to call vs decent UTG. As played, your 4bet was a little too big imo.
Flop it's ok to bet small, but I won't bet again the turn without improving. As played I'd check/fold the turn.
Cheers.

Thanks very much, you mean 3bet though ? that's usually my go to size 4x oop and 3x ip , would you adjust this to say 2.5x ip and 3.5x oop ?

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
I think b/f as a blocker around 1/3p again on the A or K is probably better than check calling the problem with trying to bluff catch on an A or K.Is that villain likely isn't turning any of those hands in to a bluff if we check but rather taking the showdown value.Where as villain can call with some of those hands as a bluff catch themselves and for 1/3p they likely look you up relatively wide.I don't think they call a shove with worse to often and i don't think at these stakes they come over the top with worse all that often either.Because of the positions we probably shouldn't have to many 3 barrel bluffs on this board.But Vs say co or btn where they have more Tx it would likely be far better.But ye i'm really not sure about this spot myself as i cant really see an option that stands out to me that's clearly better than another option.

Yes this is an interesting hand for-sure. I was wasn't referring to check-calling turn but rather just thinking about the line of calling villains min-raise on the turn after hero's 1/3PSB on the turn. I am confused,are you speculating the river play with what you said here?

Anyways, We have about 29% Equity versus his range on the turn ( from ranges I give players) we need to call $0.70 to win a pot of $4.19, so we need 3:1 and we are getting roughly double that (given villains not slow-playing AA or KK) On the river if a Jack comes we have the nuts,

If an Ace comes we are losing to all combos of AQ(#6 combos) , KJs (#3combos), QQ(#3combos) and TT(3combos).

We are beating AJs( #2combos), KQs(#2combos),,QJs(#3combos),,JJ(#6combos) and splitting with AKs(#1combo)

On the river if an ace comes we are losing to 15 combos and beating 13 combos,

On the river if a King comes: We are losing to QQ(#3combos),TT(#3combos),KQs(#2combos),AJs(#3combos),

We are beating All AQ(#9combos),KJs(#2combos),QJs(#3combos),and JJ(#6combos) AKs is a split

We are losing to 11 combos and beating 20 combos if K comes on river.

Interesting spot , if an ace comes on the river, we check and villain goes all in ...

pot on river=$4.89

Hero checks,Villain shoves $2.58

Pot odds will be 2.89 to 1 meaning we need to be good 1 out of about 3 times

we have enough Equity (46.5%)and are beating enough combos to call assuming he will do this with his whole range OTR which is QQ-TT,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo.

If a king comes we have 64% Equity and if a Jack comes we have the nuts assuming he didnt hit a flush.

Could we lead shove the river and it would be profitable if an A,K or J comes on the river ?

Ok reds I see what your saying your talking about betting 1/3 pot on he river if he just called and river comes an A or K right? Hmm ya idk honestly I think a bigger flop and turn bet was needed because with our bets sizing in this hand we arnt really getting worse hands to call us since we basically have a semi bluff with 12 outs(some are unclean ) and we arnt really getting better hands to fold,We are essentially bluffing but without betting large enough to force anything better to fold. I understand you would do this if you actually had AA or KK but when we look at our actual holdings the bet sizing seems odd Imo, like villain could be technically raising you on the turn with JJ ,AK himself , even AJ or KJ some of the time because your bet sizing can be perceived as marginal hand that wants to get to showdown,

Originally posted by RedsYNWA

Originally posted by Torcato
Hello Reds,

Pf it's ok to call vs decent UTG. As played, your 4bet was a little too big imo.
Flop it's ok to bet small, but I won't bet again the turn without improving. As played I'd check/fold the turn.
Cheers.

Thanks very much, you mean 3bet though ? that's usually my go to size 4x oop and 3x ip , would you adjust this to say 2.5x ip and 3.5x oop ?

Yes, i'd adjust to 3.5x oop and between 2.5 and 3x ip.

Originally posted by Casey55
Ok reds I see what your saying your talking about betting 1/3 pot on he river if he just called and river comes an A or K right? Hmm ya idk honestly I think a bigger flop and turn bet was needed because with our bets sizing in this hand we arnt really getting worse hands to call us since we basically have a semi bluff with 12 outs(some are unclean ) and we arnt really getting better hands to fold,We are essentially bluffing but without betting large enough to force anything better to fold. I understand you would do this if you actually had AA or KK but when we look at our actual holdings the bet sizing seems odd Imo, like villain could be technically raising you on the turn with JJ , or AK himself some of the time and pushing you off your hand who knows even AJ or KJ he could be doing this with since we are betting small and can be perceived as trying to buy our way to see a showdown with marginal hand or something

The problem with betting larger with my semi blufss/bluffs is it's a really easy sizing tell to pick up on.And it gives me a bad price on my bluffs and more fold equity on my made hands which isn't really a good thing.

Originally posted by Torcato

Originally posted by RedsYNWA

Originally posted by Torcato
Hello Reds,

Pf it's ok to call vs decent UTG. As played, your 4bet was a little too big imo.
Flop it's ok to bet small, but I won't bet again the turn without improving. As played I'd check/fold the turn.
Cheers.

Thanks very much, you mean 3bet though ? that's usually my go to size 4x oop and 3x ip , would you adjust this to say 2.5x ip and 3.5x oop ?

Yes, i'd adjust to 3.5x oop and between 2.5 and 3x ip.

Thanks very much ill give it a try.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA

Originally posted by Casey55
Ok reds I see what your saying your talking about betting 1/3 pot on he river if he just called and river comes an A or K right? Hmm ya idk honestly I think a bigger flop and turn bet was needed because with our bets sizing in this hand we arnt really getting worse hands to call us since we basically have a semi bluff with 12 outs(some are unclean ) and we arnt really getting better hands to fold,We are essentially bluffing but without betting large enough to force anything better to fold. I understand you would do this if you actually had AA or KK but when we look at our actual holdings the bet sizing seems odd Imo, like villain could be technically raising you on the turn with JJ , or AK himself some of the time and pushing you off your hand who knows even AJ or KJ he could be doing this with since we are betting small and can be perceived as trying to buy our way to see a showdown with marginal hand or something

The problem with betting larger with my semi blufss/bluffs is it's a really easy sizing tell to pick up on.And it gives me a bad price on my bluffs and more fold equity on my made hands which isn't really a good thing.

is it really easy sizing tell to pick-up on ? with premium made hands we are looking to get a-lot of money in the pot as-well. I'm not sure I fully understand what you mean when you say, it gives you a bad price on your bluffs and more fold equity on your made hands can you elaborate plz. The flop is somewhat connected here aswell. I think you may be looking at the hand too broadly instead of what we hold versus what we are trying to accomplish with our betsizing. In your Original Post you said

"Trouble is villain has a decent amount of Q with AQ and KQs also TT and QQ so i'm really only looking to fold JJ 88 99 on the flop i guess.And perhaps some other pairs and suited connectors if there in villains range here.And the turn is it a check fold once called ? as JJ is possibly the only hand that floats and 88 99 fold the flop.If villain has say TJs i doubt that folds vs 1/3p on the turn either"

why are we only looking to fold villains 99,88 and suited connectors if their in villains range here? will he certainly fold those hands to a 1/3PSB in position? why do you think villain only floats the flop with JJ and that he folds weaker, the bet was fairly weak some villains may call flop bet with 99,88 or any pair if they think you can do this with A-high.

You speculate villain probably won't fold JTs to your turn bet sizing which seems fair, If villain won't call us with weaker hands and he won't fold stronger hands than what is the point of our bet ?

We are in a situation where we are building a pot OOP with 20% Equity going to a river Assuming all of our Outs are good, which is not the case every time as an Ace gives AQ two pair, KJs a straight etc.

I generally like Caseys assessments here...

When we come onto the flop we have two option. Check, or bet.

If we bet, we will want our perceived range to look like the nuts: Something like AA that is trying to rinse value off Qx or draws.

We don’t achieve that with this little bet. We look like we have something like AK or JJ. We look pretty weak.

If we make a big Cbet repping the nuts we get a much clearer response from the villain. He will fold all his underpairs etc. He will call with all his real hands. We can also expect a check back on the turn from a lot of his range as he fears our trap check with the nuts. If he bets, we can assume him very strong and can fold.

When considering a bet size you have to consider what you are repping. It’s not always that bigger means stronger. Sometimes a small bet will rep a stronger hand than a big bet. Quite often a small bet will rep the same hand as a big bet and so if bluffing you want to go small and when going for value you want to bet big.

In general I don’t like this line. I think it’s too expensive a play to make with A high.

If we check the flop we will still rep the nuts as we look like we are planning to trap check. We get the same sort of information and it’s much cheaper. I prefer the passive check here, but it’s close.

My favourite play is just calling preflop. I think this preflop raise is just GTO inspired. I can’t see many reasons to do it. I don’t like it at all.

We’re basically telling the villain exactly what hand we hold and we’re oop. We’re also taking all the hands we own from the villains range, and we’re even denying the player behind us the chance to come along with his A6 or even his KQ! He could squeeze with all sorts.

All kinds of sexy things happen when we disguise our hand with the call preflop. GTO has just got into all of your brains! It’s the Devil I tell ya!!

Originally posted by yadijavadi
I generally like Caseys assessments here...

When we come onto the flop we have two option. Check, or bet.

If we bet, we will want our perceived range to look like the nuts: Something like AA that is trying to rinse value off Qx or draws.

We don’t achieve that with this little bet. We look like we have something like AK or JJ. We look pretty weak.

If we make a big Cbet repping the nuts we get a much clearer response from the villain. He will fold all his underpairs etc. He will call with all his real hands. We can also expect a check back on the turn from a lot of his range as he fears our trap check with the nuts. If he bets, we can assume him very strong and can fold.

When considering a bet size you have to consider what you are repping. It’s not always that bigger means stronger. Sometimes a small bet will rep a stronger hand than a big bet. Quite often a small bet will rep the same hand as a big bet and so if bluffing you want to go small and when going for value you want to bet big.

In general I don’t like this line. I think it’s too expensive a play to make with A high.

If we check the flop we will still rep the nuts as we look like we are planning to trap check. We get the same sort of information and it’s much cheaper. I prefer the passive check here, but it’s close.

My favourite play is just calling preflop. I think this preflop raise is just GTO inspired. I can’t see many reasons to do it. I don’t like it at all.

We’re basically telling the villain exactly what hand we hold and we’re oop. We’re also taking all the hands we own from the villains range, and we’re even denying the player behind us the chance to come along with his A6 or even his KQ! He could squeeze with all sorts.

All kinds of sexy things happen when we disguise our hand with the call preflop. GTO has just got into all of your brains! It’s the Devil I tell ya!!

You make some interesting points, I see why you guys may choose a smaller bet It has more merit than I originally thought, though on the turn I feel like it can be perceived as weak when we do small again on drawy board. I don’t like a call preflop because then we kind of cap our ranges don’t we? I like when villains can think I can have AA,KK when I miss the board. I wonder what would have happened if We had bet 1/3 flop, 1/2 to 2/3PSB turn and just shoved on river lol villain might have layed down top pair top kicker , it kind of depends on the player type but with Heros actual hand AK he still had outs to make the nuts

1 last thing I was thinking about was villains bet on the turn as a pure bluff it needs to work 33% of the time

1.40/4.19=.334. =33%

So then if he can get hero to fold more than about 1/3 of his range he is profitable . Any AK or ace high can be a good chunk of it I think. If I look at his bet that way he could have been doing this with a number of hands to check hero’s hand strength with the raise and prevent an all in from hero on the river with a polarized range . I don’t no too much about the 1/3 pot bets every street in a 3-bet pot but more experienced players probably do , maybe villain knows about this strategy and this was a way to counter it aswell as making an EV bluff on turn ? If hero folds all aK combos and A high I think that is a lot of his range but I’m on my phone and can’t use Equilab Right now