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NL16 6Max, JJ on BTN, is the shove plus EV?

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

The villain is 24/20/af0.8 45 hands

PokerStars - $0.16 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 100 BB
CO: 100.31 BB
Hero (BTN): 102.31 BB
SB: 16.13 BB
BB: 105.38 BB
UTG: 103.25 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ J♥

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J♠ T♦ T♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 1 BB, UTG calls 1 BB

Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) T♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.06 BB, UTG calls 5.06 BB

River: (19.63 BB, 2 players) 4♥
UTG checks, Hero bets 18 BB, UTG raises to 65 BB, Hero raises to 93.25 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 28.25 BB

OK, so with this river action, I beat +QQ/44 or I lose to Tx. Must I not shove this?

Thoughts?


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7 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

:diamond:  I vote for the shove


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Pre ok, although this days I'm more on the 3bet side.
What's that flop size?
How can someone not think of shoving OTR? You only loose to quads!
When he check/raises there it feels so so good.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by zetozinho
Pre ok, although this days I'm more on the 3bet side.
What's that flop size?
How can someone not think of shoving OTR? You only loose to quads!
When he check/raises there it feels so so good.

Good point, yeah, I needed to bet waaaaay bigger than that on this flop.


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CharlotteD
Joined: 04.02.2013

Shove river. Every qq+ and AJ or any hand with the J he will call. Quads is just a cooler.


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najtreg12
Joined: 25.06.2009

It seems I am the nit of this topic, but I just call...
I think raising that big with AA-QQ on the river is really thin on his side, and therefore I lean more towards Tx.

But no expert :f_biggrin:


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Thank you all.

On river, my first instinct was to call his CR because I really felt like this could be quads. Why? Because this doesn't look like AA to me. But I thought back and turned around as you have and decided that the shove is the reasonable line.

Spoiler

Hero shows J♦ J♥ (Full House, Jacks full of Tens)
(Pre 72%, Flop 95%, Turn 2%)
UTG shows A♠ T♥ (Four of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 28%, Flop 5%, Turn 98%)
UTG wins 196.88 BB
FYI: I would just call his raise at 200BBESS.


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I don't like the flop sizing either check or make a more standard size bet imo i like the turn sizing and i'm just calling the river


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