AA vs nit 3 barrel

Hi Anthbois932,
You open with 4BB -- is this your standard opening?
If it is not your standard, it isn't necessarily wise to open wider with big hands -- then they know what you have.
(not that too many pay that close attention at NL 2)
Perhaps others will disagree, but I think raising the flop might help, but we're heads up on the turn anyway, and I don't mind being passive with overpairs -- why not let them bet into you.

The board is paired, so we needn't worry about Q9, but 99 and 22 are definite possibilities, QQ is more likely, but QQ should have raised pre.

I think you played it fine.
If he led out all three streets w/ 66 and got luck, well so it goes...

well, that's a sick one. i'm struggling to find some combos you beat, but the sample is small, so you never know. assuming that villain isn't playing too randomly, you're most likely dead behind facing this river action.
i think it's possible to call and win against some completely random hand that makes no sense whatsoever like AQ spades or 55, or some hands that make more sense like JT clubs, but we should probably be folding this one.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Hi Anthbois932,
You open with 4BB -- is this your standard opening?
If it is not your standard, it isn't necessarily wise to open wider with big hands -- then they know what you have.
(not that too many pay that close attention at NL 2)
Perhaps others will disagree, but I think raising the flop might help, but we're heads up on the turn anyway, and I don't mind being passive with overpairs -- why not let them bet into you.

The board is paired, so we needn't worry about Q9, but 99 and 22 are definite possibilities, QQ is more likely, but QQ should have raised pre.

I think you played it fine.
If he led out all three streets w/ 66 and got luck, well so it goes...

Hey Vorpal,

Thanks for your reply.

Yes, 4BB is my std opening in early positions/SB. No sizing tell possible here.
I usually absolutely hate being passive (unless vs maniacs), but in the live of the action, it was the only way I found to keep villain's range as wide as possible whilst not impaling myself vs full houses.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
oooh, that's a sick one. i'm struggling to find some combos you beat, but the sample is small, so you never know.
i think it's possible to call and win against some completely random hand that makes no sense whatsoever like AQ spades or 55, but we should probably be folding this one.

Isn't it? ♦
Guy's an absolute nit, I can't see him 3 barrelling anything else than a pocket pair or a full house. AQ? I have AA so why not, but that's so rare.

I've put villain's range river as 99+ and AQ, my equity river against that range is about 79%.
If I remove TT JJ (assuming villain does not 3 barrel those because of the Q, my equity drops to 65%.
If I remove AQ (nits rarely aggro OOP 3way like that without anything, which AQ is on the flop), my equity drops to 50%.

Damn, put that way, it really does look like without too much info on villain, this is a clear call, what do you think?

you're doing it wrong. what about the hands that beat you?
we have 8 combos of QQ,99,22,A2s and you have about 1/3 pot odds on the river, so you need to find 4 combos that you beat. i'm really struggling to see villain showing up with top pair with this line, to be honest.

we can tweak the parameters - maybe weigh it as less than 8 combos, because sometimes he slowplays, QQ might 3bet preflop, etc. but the problem of finding hands that you beat remains... the most likely hands i see you beating are some random spew. JJ TT would fall into that category, but i actually don't expect to see that ever. other random pocket pairs are more likely, since villain might have intended to turn them into a bluff from the beginning.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
you're doing it wrong. what about the hands that beat you?
we have 8 combos of QQ,99,22,A2s and you have about 1/3 pot odds on the river, so you need to find 4 combos that you beat. i'm really struggling to see villain showing up with top pair with this line, to be honest.

we can tweak the parameters - maybe weigh it as less than 8 combos, because sometimes he slowplays, QQ might 3bet preflop, etc. but the problem of finding hands that you beat remains... the most likely hands i see you beating are some random spew. JJ TT would fall into that category, but i actually don't expect to see that ever. other random pocket pairs are more likely, since villain might have intended to turn them into a bluff from the beginning.

Would KK play this way?
I mean without raising pre-flop.
Both AA and KK would raise pre I think.

I have included hands that beat me, yes, such as 99 QQ. I don't put A2s or 22 in his range, not because it makes the maths look better, but because that's geuinely how I percieve his range. I get the sample isnt huge, but the guy literally played 3 hands (including this one). Also, not sure he even bets flop with 22? Would you?

The range I'm considering is his 3 barrel range, because that's the line he took.

Regardless, you say 4 combos that I beat? KK alone has 6 and I beat all of them.
I also don't lose money against AA (1 combo)

That's now 7 combos I don't lose against.

99 and QQ is 6 combos.

50/50. (as AA is a tie). You said I need 1/3 odds to call, which I largely have.

I am not sure I understand what you mean by "I am doing this wrong". Could you please let me know?

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Originally posted by Tomaloc
you're doing it wrong. what about the hands that beat you?
we have 8 combos of QQ,99,22,A2s and you have about 1/3 pot odds on the river, so you need to find 4 combos that you beat. i'm really struggling to see villain showing up with top pair with this line, to be honest.

we can tweak the parameters - maybe weigh it as less than 8 combos, because sometimes he slowplays, QQ might 3bet preflop, etc. but the problem of finding hands that you beat remains... the most likely hands i see you beating are some random spew. JJ TT would fall into that category, but i actually don't expect to see that ever. other random pocket pairs are more likely, since villain might have intended to turn them into a bluff from the beginning.

Would KK play this way?
I mean without raising pre-flop.
Both AA and KK would raise pre I think.

That's a fair question, however villain has a 3-bet of 0 so far. This is in no way a definite reason that villain would not 3bet KK but I personally believe he could call pre at least some times, yes.

If he calls 50% of the times, I still have 3 combos I beat vs 6 that beat me, so call is break even.

If this is where I have gone wrong, then I stand corrected, and I thank you both for showing me my mistake

I play four tables on Pokerstars with just ten seconds to act. No way in a million years could I merged all the possible hand combinations villain may have and then average the equity of all his range with just seconds to act. And at 2NL is it really justified? This is 2nl not 200nl. The best gauge to go by is the fact the player is a nit and donk bets flop, 25% pot bets turn, and jams river. The 25% turn bet is a 'please call me bet' judging by the river shove. If it was a 'where do I stand feeler bet' he would block bet the river at best with his 89 suited hand. Not jam. So I am sure he had a full house 99922 and donked all streets to keep you in the pot to build it up instead of check raising and risk scaring you off. You opened 4bb and if you only do this with AA KK and the nit picked up on it, and decided to milk you on the flop and turn and hoped you would call the jam. That is how it appears to me. But I could be wrong.

this line and this player type are so random that it's hard to assess their range effectively.
it doesn't make a lot of sense for them to bet many hands on the flop, but what are they bluffing with, or what do you beat? Qx is also unlikely to donk flop, and he's really tight, so...

if he can show up with enough KK (not 3betting pre? only aces?) then yeah, easy call, but i don't expect to see many "merges" here.
it feels like "nuts or air", and i'd guess it's mostly nuts.

Originally posted by arthurbentley
I play four tables on Pokerstars with just ten seconds to act. No way in a million years could I merged all the possible hand combinations villain may have and then average the equity of all his range with just seconds to act. And at 2NL is it really justified? This is 2nl not 200nl. The best gauge to go by is the fact the player is a nit and donk bets flop, 25% pot bets turn, and jams river. The 25% turn bet is a 'please call me bet' judging by the river shove. If it was a 'where do I stand feeler bet' he would block bet the river at best. Not jam. So I am sure he had a full house and donked all streets to keep you in the pot to build it up instead of check raising and risk scaring you off.

Since you're more of the "feeling" type, allow me to share my feelings during this hand as it unfolded (ha, unfolded):

Flop - He donks? There's no way he would do this with 99???
Turn- Small bet? Is he afraid of the Q? He's got TT/JJ? I hope he doesn't have QQ.
River- Shit. Really, 99? QQ? Clearly he's not bluffing, but I beat anything that's not a FH. I call.

For info, my main "psy" problem in poker at the minute is both overfolding (giving wayyy too much credit to villains) and overcalling (getting married to my hand), so I must admit these spots are not the easiest for me, as you can see I go from "he's got the absolute nuts" to "I beat him easy" to "no idea".

This brainstorming of hand ranges and equity and calculations is indeed not justified in NL2 while playing (and I certainly did not do that live), but in very straightforward situations like this one, I think it could be valuable to have a proper understanding of what kind of equity my hand has vs a range, to avoid obvious leaks such as over calling/over folding in spots like this, which I've just described are my 2 main problems as far as I know at the minute.

You make a very strong argument, though it is not technical at all (i'm not looking for a deep analysis of combos, blockers, optimal bluffing% and all that crap for NL2 either, and I've said that exact thing myself numerous times in other NL2 threads) but you're literally talking 100% feeling in this hand, which I don't like much because I know later on, poker won't be much about how I feel in a hand and much more about ranges and all that fancy stuff.

I'm really glad I posted this hand. Lots of valuable feedback. Thanks to all. I'm still not convinced I should have folded, and I'm quite sure I won't fold next time in this spot, but I'm happy to have gotten valuable feedback, it helps me move in the right direction.

Thanks again

Oh, and OF COURSE ♦ He had 99, but you knew that already.

Edit: @Tomaloc, your point is very strong too. its nuts or air. Nits don't 3barrel air. end of story. I guess I overcalled here

Originally posted by Anthbois932

Originally posted by arthurbentley
I play four tables on Pokerstars with just ten seconds to act. No way in a million years could I merged all the possible hand combinations villain may have and then average the equity of all his range with just seconds to act. And at 2NL is it really justified? This is 2nl not 200nl. The best gauge to go by is the fact the player is a nit and donk bets flop, 25% pot bets turn, and jams river. The 25% turn bet is a 'please call me bet' judging by the river shove. If it was a 'where do I stand feeler bet' he would block bet the river at best. Not jam. So I am sure he had a full house and donked all streets to keep you in the pot to build it up instead of check raising and risk scaring you off.

Since you're more of the "feeling" type, allow me to share my feelings during this hand as it unfolded (ha, unfolded):

Flop - He donks? There's no way he would do this with 99???
Turn- Small bet? Is he afraid of the Q? He's got TT/JJ? I hope he doesn't have QQ.
River- Shit. Really, 99? QQ? Clearly he's not bluffing, but I beat anything that's not a FH. I call.

For info, my main "psy" problem in poker at the minute is both overfolding (giving wayyy too much credit to villains) and overcalling (getting married to my hand), so I must admit these spots are not the easiest for me, as you can see I go from "he's got the absolute nuts" to "I beat him easy" to "no idea".

This brainstorming of hand ranges and equity and calculations is indeed not justified in NL2 while playing (and I certainly did not do that live), but in very straightforward situations like this one, I think it could be valuable to have a proper understanding of what kind of equity my hand has vs a range, to avoid obvious leaks such as over calling/over folding in spots like this, which I've just described are my 2 main problems as far as I know at the minute.

You make a very strong argument, though it is not technical at all (i'm not looking for a deep analysis of combos, blockers, optimal bluffing% and all that crap for NL2 either, and I've said that exact thing myself numerous times in other NL2 threads) but you're literally talking 100% feeling in this hand, which I don't like much because I know later on, poker won't be much about how I feel in a hand and much more about ranges and all that fancy stuff.

I'm really glad I posted this hand. Lots of valuable feedback. Thanks to all. I'm still not convinced I should have folded, and I'm quite sure I won't fold next time in this spot, but I'm happy to have gotten valuable feedback, it helps me move in the right direction.

Thanks again

Oh, and OF COURSE ♦ He had 99, but you knew that already.

Edit: @Tomaloc, your point is very strong too. its nuts or air. Nits don't 3barrel air. end of story. I guess I overcalled here

Feeling is another word to say INTUITION. Intuition is developed through experience. These scenarios repeat over time. One trick I learned from nits, is that THEY donk flopped sets rather than check raise. A check raise from a nit usually means the nuts. That's why some thinking nits donk to build a pot without giving the game away. I learned that after it was done to me several times. I also employ the same tactic with flopped sets when an Ace or King flops which hits the villains range.

And no I did not know the villain had 99 preflop. I was 90% certain he had a full house by how he played it.

To beat 200nl you must play 200nl. You can't use 200nl game theory to beat 2nl. Players at 2nl don't play a balanced game. A passive player who shows aggression isn't bluffing 90% of the time. He has it.

Originally posted by arthurbentley
To beat 200nl you must play 200nl. You can't use 200nl game theory to beat 2nl. Players at 2nl don't play a balanced game. A passive player who shows aggression isn't bluffing 90% of the time. He has it.

Back when I played hold'em all the time I found this to be true up to 10 NL
At 25 NL I got slaughtered.
I presume it gets even tougher higher up

He is such a nit I am surprised he was not raising you 3x on flop, like the books say... lol. I could fold the river to him, but not on turn. Your flop bet is unnecessary 50%, 28-33% is enough. Also there is much controversial discussion on what the RFI sizing should be. I prefer 2.2, many say there is no use for that. At least on NL2 this might be true, but 4 BB in a shorthanded game is just too aggressive nowadays. But 2.5, 2.2 makes a complete different runout because of sizing. The nit will have to raise either pre, which I doubt, but on flop 100%, since the pot would be to small for value. Which leads to an easy fold on flop when he shoves your reraise, or the turn (he will bet 2/3) and it costed you less. Once again, they say you can not use NL200 play on NL2? Not true, but you certainly can not bluff for sure so many times, as most of the people don't even have a clue what rangeplay would mean. Also consider that raising less preflop will generally make you a better postflop player in the long run, as you will face more situations to analyse. Once again, this is my opinion. But in NL2, postflop game is really weak and easy to read, so I would just give it a try. It works fine on NL10 for sure.

Originally posted by Smushed
He is such a nit I am surprised he was not raising you 3x on flop, like the books say... lol. I could fold the river to him, but not on turn. Your flop bet is unnecessary 50%, 28-33% is enough. Also there is much controversial discussion on what the RFI sizing should be. I prefer 2.2, many say there is no use for that. At least on NL2 this might be true, but 4 BB in a shorthanded game is just too aggressive nowadays. But 2.5, 2.2 makes a complete different runout because of sizing. The nit will have to raise either pre, which I doubt, but on flop 100%, since the pot would be to small for value. Which leads to an easy fold on flop when he shoves your reraise, or the turn (he will bet 2/3) and it costed you less. Once again, they say you can not use NL200 play on NL2? Not true, but you certainly can not bluff for sure so many times, as most of the people don't even have a clue what rangeplay would mean. Also consider that raising less preflop will generally make you a better postflop player in the long run, as you will face more situations to analyse. Once again, this is my opinion. But in NL2, postflop game is really weak and easy to read, so I would just give it a try. It works fine on NL10 for sure.

Man, I have no idea if you're talking about my hand or another hand, for your post is so confusing.
-you're criticizing my bet sizing flop, but it was not mine.
-Villain could not have raised flop, he bet and I called.
-4BB pre is actually much better than 2.5BB in NL2. Unless eff. stacks are like 20BB. People call way too much and way too wide, so the correct exploitative play is to open bigger and tighter. I sometimes PFR 5/6++BB if OOP and few limpers.

Nobody is perfect, I make as many mistakes as the next guy, but I also think the best way to improve at NL2 is certainly not to apply strategies from NL200. Like in every other game ever. You don't play pro strats on a noob game. You exploit the hell out of the noobs.

The biggest mistake I made for years when trying to make profit out of poker was to look at all these multimillions pros and learn what they do, and then go on NL2 and pull off the massive overbet shove river with bottom pair, the 5bet all in pre with 55, the massive hero call turn with Ahigh and all that stuff. I lost hunderds, if not thousands. And It tilted me because I could not stop blaming other players for being so terrible and impaling myself with my fancy play syndrome, going in higher limits to get my money back and losing even more. That is proper fishy play. I must have made many regs happy back in these days.

But the truth in winning in NL2 is simple and easy: Play in position, have the initiative, have card advantage. Never bluff (unless you're experimented in NL2), value big, often and FAT and fold when needed (e.g. turn raise is very often the nuts, river raises are ALWAYS the nuts.) absolutely nothing else is needed to make 20BB/100+++++ in NL2. No need to study how often you should 4bet bluff with exactly AQo from the SB. No need to think about what is the optimal GTO bet sizing on the turn with whatever range. No need to even think about ranges if you're not good at it. "him idiot, me bet 3 times, he call, me win 1 buy in 80% of the time" (funnily enough that's exactly what happened here, but I was the idiot hahaha).

Anyway. I played this hand like an idiot. I should have folded river because villain is a huge nit and has me crushed way too often. I could also have raised flop and fold to 3bet shove. I'll also definitely remember that thinking nits will donk to build pots. That's my learning for this hand.

Originally posted by Anthbois932

Originally posted by Smushed
He is such a nit I am surprised he was not raising you 3x on flop, like the books say... lol. I could fold the river to him, but not on turn. Your flop bet is unnecessary 50%, 28-33% is enough. Also there is much controversial discussion on what the RFI sizing should be. I prefer 2.2, many say there is no use for that. At least on NL2 this might be true, but 4 BB in a shorthanded game is just too aggressive nowadays. But 2.5, 2.2 makes a complete different runout because of sizing. The nit will have to raise either pre, which I doubt, but on flop 100%, since the pot would be to small for value. Which leads to an easy fold on flop when he shoves your reraise, or the turn (he will bet 2/3) and it costed you less. Once again, they say you can not use NL200 play on NL2? Not true, but you certainly can not bluff for sure so many times, as most of the people don't even have a clue what rangeplay would mean. Also consider that raising less preflop will generally make you a better postflop player in the long run, as you will face more situations to analyse. Once again, this is my opinion. But in NL2, postflop game is really weak and easy to read, so I would just give it a try. It works fine on NL10 for sure.

Man, I have no idea if you're talking about my hand or another hand, for your post is so confusing.
-you're criticizing my bet sizing flop, but it was not mine.
-Villain could not have raised flop, he bet and I called.
-4BB pre is actually much better than 2.5BB in NL2. Unless eff. stacks are like 20BB. People call way too much and way too wide, so the correct exploitative play is to open bigger and tighter. I sometimes PFR 5/6++BB if OOP and few limpers.

Nobody is perfect, I make as many mistakes as the next guy, but I also think the best way to improve at NL2 is certainly not to apply strategies from NL200. Like in every other game ever. You don't play pro strats on a noob game. You exploit the hell out of the noobs.

The biggest mistake I made for years when trying to make profit out of poker was to look at all these multimillions pros and learn what they do, and then go on NL2 and pull off the massive overbet shove river with bottom pair, the 5bet all in pre with 55, the massive hero call turn with Ahigh and all that stuff. I lost hunderds, if not thousands. And It tilted me because I could not stop blaming other players for being so terrible and impaling myself with my fancy play syndrome, going in higher limits to get my money back and losing even more. That is proper fishy play. I must have made many regs happy back in these days.

But the truth in winning in NL2 is simple and easy: Play in position, have the initiative, have card advantage. Never bluff (unless you're experimented in NL2), value big, often and FAT and fold when needed (e.g. turn raise is very often the nuts, river raises are ALWAYS the nuts.) absolutely nothing else is needed to make 20BB/100+++++ in NL2. No need to study how often you should 4bet bluff with exactly AQo from the SB. No need to think about what is the optimal GTO bet sizing on the turn with whatever range. No need to even think about ranges if you're not good at it. "him idiot, me bet 3 times, he call, me win 1 buy in 80% of the time" (funnily enough that's exactly what happened here, but I was the idiot hahaha).

Anyway. I played this hand like an idiot. I should have folded river because villain is a huge nit and has me crushed way too often. I could also have raised flop and fold to 3bet shove. I'll also definitely remember that thinking nits will donk to build pots. That's my learning for this hand.

Sorry, I did not mean to criticize, thus this is a thread for discussion. If you can not take another viewpoint then just stop posting here, and keep going the way you do. As I wrote it is my opinion. I misread the flop, thought villian took lead on turn only. Either way, if he would have checked, still you should have bet 1/3 IP. And if he bets, you just NEVER call, why wouldn't you raise? Because 99 will beat you only? People say he might have 22. Really? Calling with 22 in SB as a 10 VPIP nit is not an option imo, A2 isn't also. 10% overall is like 66+, meaning is SB 99 would be the lowest of all in his range and like 22+ only in button. And if he shoves flop or donks again on turn you fold. So the problem was not with your river play definitely, since you should NEVER be there against this player on the river, only with QQ and on the winning side then, going broke on turn.

Also as i wrote, there are different opinions on RFI sizing. I am not on the 4BB side, that is all.

Originally posted by Anthbois932
4BB pre is actually much better than 2.5BB in NL2. Unless eff. stacks are like 20BB. People call way too much and way too wide, so the correct exploitative play is to open bigger and tighter

Source?

Duuude. You can't fold here....

Edit:

Hmmm I mean those are very nitty stats... but still he's repping 99 or Ad2d exactly. So no, I wouldn't fold.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
this line and this player type are so random that it's hard to assess their range effectively.
it doesn't make a lot of sense for them to bet many hands on the flop, but what are they bluffing with, or what do you beat? Qx is also unlikely to donk flop, and he's really tight, so...

if he can show up with enough KK (not 3betting pre? only aces?) then yeah, easy call, but i don't expect to see many "merges" here.
it feels like "nuts or air", and i'd guess it's mostly nuts.

Lol. To kind of quote you, you're doing it wrong...

I think the math is the following:

1 combo 22, 1 combo a2s and 1 combo 99 for 3 combos of value...

Considering he's not always playing these hands like this, that gets reduced to 1.5 combos (guess) add some lucky turned fh and you might get to 3 combos.

Now he starts flop with around 250 combos, so in order for us to get a call he needs to randomly triple barrel around 1.5/250 times...

I mean, I'm doing this super fast, but the math really isn't in favor for folding here...

I know he's tight but math >>> 29 hand sample

Oh also, even if he mainly has it, we should still call, you know pot odds

And if you plan on being a nit, go play chess, sometimes in poker you're wrong, deal with it, but don't duck up your game plan