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Can we fold AK to this all in pre-flop?

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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

We are getting pretty good pot odds 2.5 to 1 so we need to win about 28% of the time here?

CO's stats were 33/17/0 (6 hands)

BTN's stats: 50/50/0 (2 hands)

what range can we give villains shoving range? AA,KK,AK, for a 5-bet shove? or can we give him a range like JJ+,AK?

against a range of JJ+,AK we have 39% equity , we have already invested a bunch into the pot Idk if we can realistically fold unless we think he is only ever doing this with AA,KK . Can we ever come to this conclusion when a random 2nl, 5-bet shove in this spot?

I thought BTN's raise might have been a bit wider than a normal 3-betting range and I thought I could take the pot pre or get heads up against the initial raiser.

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.70 (135 bb)
MP: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $1.66 (83 bb)
BU: $2.21 (111 bb)
SB: $3.00 (150 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A K
1 fold, MP raises to $0.05, CO calls $0.05, BTN 3-bets to $0.18, 1 fold, Hero 4-bets to $0.65, 1 fold, CO 5-bets to $1.66 (all-in), 1 fold, Hero calls $1.01

Flop: ($3.56) 5 8 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($3.56) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($3.56) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3.56 (Rake: $0.15)

Showdown:
CO shows A A (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 94%, Flop: 99%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows A K (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 6%, Flop: 1%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

CO wins $3.18
BB (Hero) wins $0.23


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9 replies
LMcrow
Joined: 15.08.2006

we have to assigning some ranges here. Co flats and then 5bets allin.

If we give Co this range QQ+,AKs we have 33 %
if we give Co a somewhat looser range JJ+,AKs,AKo we have 39 % equity vs that.

Against TT+,AQs+,AKo we have 42 % equity

against KK+,AKs we have 25 %

We are only dead vs nit trap range. Which is likley or not likley. Depends on that player.

Maybe it makes sense to just shove ourself here with a 4bet allin because we cant really fold. Its nl 2 and he can still have some random funny hand.


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

1. Your sizing is way too large. I would go for ~0.5$. You dont need to go huge.
2. Its snap call vs shove. I would fold vs regular assuming his range is super strong, but there we have guy who doesnt even play with full stack - its 95% fish that can do this with 33 or AJo.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Out of position a 3,5x 4bet seems fine, but tough to fold when the short stack shoves. You are priced in, but calling the raise and push on the 5bet is suspicious for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

3,5x 4bet OOP? Ridiculous, but I guess it can work on nl2 if you never have hand that fold to jam there. However in long run you will only burn money this way as you make sure that he can't do mistake - he needs to shove nuts and fold everything else. I guess it wont be effective anymore on nl10 and above.


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LMcrow
Joined: 15.08.2006

Thats why i think instead of going for a big 4 bet just shove it in. That way we can deny equity and take the pot down most of the time without paying rake.
People may overfold hands like JJ TT QQ, and even if they do call we are in good shape. I think on NL 2 its the best play. And AK is just the best hand for that.

Sometimes they have AA or KK but thats not the point.


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

i think a call is fine with the blockers and the ratios, unless you knwo villain is a total nit.


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Kapsawaka
Joined: 24.08.2011

You can all-in / you should call / you absolutely must call all-in.

AKs is basically the nuts, I know it doesn't seem it (and in reality is is not as the edge will be very marginal), but really yes! You should call all-in.

AKo, now a debate (still call that spot), but AKs not even close...


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Kapsawaka
Joined: 24.08.2011

"We are getting pretty good pot odds 2.5 to 1 so we need to win about 28% of the time here?"

72o against most ranges you would have a better chance than 28%

In tourney poker 72o can be a call, for value, if get 33% odds.

====

It's highish variance, but definitely should call.


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