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Bad bluff catch board vs aggro opponent

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braunkan
Joined: 01.11.2021

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 4 players

UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $3.75 (188 bb)
BB: $2.21 (111 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with A Q
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12) 3 7 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.07, BB raises to $0.21, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.54) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.29, Hero calls $0.29

River: ($1.12) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.85, SB (Hero) folds

Villain Stats: 21/18 AF:5 (329 hands)

On the river I couldn't think of any bluffs villain has that I am beating. Does a player with 5 AF have bluffs on this river? I am getting 30% to call. If I give villain some bluffs such as AJo,ATo,KJo,KTo with the ace and king of hearts respectively then I have 33% equity against his range. Though I think this would still be a -EV call after rake. But if villain ever has a complete air bluff here like KJo then calling becomes profitable.


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4 replies
mjez1
Joined: 29.06.2015

I would play kind of the same as you.. I like your thought process.
I don't think the villain has bluffs there. From my experience, TPTK is not enough against his aggressive play.

I'm looking forward to reading thoughts from more experienced players.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Problem is if villain was semi bluffing on flop and turn it came on the river. So it's tough to think about hands you beat now. I think folding would be best or you expect villain can over play top pair here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by mjez1
I'm looking forward to reading thoughts from more experienced players.

Note that I'm not overly experienced at Hold'em

The raise OTF is a strong signal — will flush draws do this? Monster draws maybe, but the ones possible are unlikely
When I call a flop raise OOP with TPTK, I'll continue OTT only if either my equity improves, or the turn is a total brick.
The turn is certainly no help for Hero, so a fold OTT is also a decent play.

If player is a known aggro, maybe continuing is OK, but I like a fold on the turn


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

how often does your c-bet get raised in the first place ? i would expect the number to be pretty low, but pools improve over time.

so w/o reads, i would tend to overfold heavily vs aggression on those stakes.

you have done a very good job of nailing the range villain could come up with OTR, it should mostly contain gutshots w hearts (or one heartblocker). i would still prefer a fold here, due to the upsizing OTR. it seems, that villain has given himself a good price to draw OTT.

so i would note that and try to verify that read in the future.


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