Wow!!

Hero calls.

Hero folds.
You need 46,1% equity without taking rake into account and you dont know player.
He would need to shove something like 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ for you to be break even.

I think i may fold at nl25. I can see this being the 70's play of, limp, hope you get raised, jam with AA KK QQ and hop you get paid. IF it is a reg I CALL

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Hero folds.
You need 46,1% equity without taking rake into account and you dont know player.
He would need to shove something like 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ for you to be break even.

What is your calling range if you fold AK? Is it QQ+?

You have over 70% against that range that you give.

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    28.81%  27.82%   0.99% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
MP3    71.19%  70.20%   0.99% { QQ+ }

If you add AKs and AKo you still are a big favourite.

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    37.82%  33.96%   3.86% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
MP3    62.18%  58.32%   3.86% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I'm not sure why you want to be such a big favourite. I also think he doesn't have to be that wide to break even. If he has AQs and JJ, we still have over 50% equity.

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    45.41%  37.90%   7.51% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
MP3    54.59%  47.07%   7.51% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Now against that range if you don't want to go broke with AKs and AKo you get over 63% equity:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    36.29%  34.53%   1.76% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
MP3    63.71%  61.95%   1.76% { QQ+ }

I understand you want to beat the rake, but you don't have to be that tight.

I have sometimes similar spots with AK, when UTG fold ans SB 4bet all in for nearly 150bb preflop I prefer fold with AK here.

From curiosity I just checked hands regs had after they shove all-in facing 3bet from 10kk hands database. After calculating and giving weights(based on occurance of given hand on showdown) AKo has 46,56% equity if we take hands where both players are at least 100bb deep. However if we narrow it to situation when both players are 110bb deep or more then equity of AKo drops to 45,68%.

Now lets say we 3bet to 11bb and are facing 4bet shove.
100bb deep we need 44,5% equity to call, 46,84% if we take GG NL10 rake into consideration.
150bb deep we need 46,3% equity to call, 47,93% if we take GG NL10 rake into consideration.

In conclusion - 150bb deep its snap fold, on 100bb Its breakeveninsh call if we add rakeback. Maybe EV- if someone has low tolerance to variance.

However fish stack off a lot more lightly on same sample and AKo has 49,26% equity so its snap call. On deeper stacks sample is a lot smaller but it looks like stacks depth doesnt influence much fish decision - vs 4bet shoves 120bb+ AKo has over 51% equity, though it may be too small sample(92 hands) in this case.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Hero folds.
You need 46,1% equity without taking rake into account and you dont know player.
He would need to shove something like 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ for you to be break even.

What is your calling range if you fold AK? Is it QQ+?
.

Problem with AK is simply fact that you are rarely ahead and even absurd bluff like 63s has a lot of equity. Also from my research its clear that both regs and fishes are pocket pair heavy(~50%) in 4bet shoving range which is a lot better for QQ or even JJ as those crush lower pockets while AKo has 43-47% equity.

Actually to be honest, this is a freak event, you probably won't find any hand where UTG limps, SB raises, BB 3bets, then UTG folds(it's an alarm bell if the fish 4bets), SB jams vs BB.

Wow, what do I do here? Well, I don't know.

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