Originally posted by Timmaywin
Originally posted by Stackoffski
Nice! ... some-all-in-or-fold-monies... no really it's insane rake that game, not beatable.
Nah, the games are beatable and the varaince is minimal at these games!
Let me prove so with some graphs of different sessions:
Spoiler
When my daygraph looks like that there is normally 2 reasons:
1) few badbeats after flop or turn all-inns with 75-90%
2) many lost flop and turn coinflips with 50-60%, many of those with hands that should have been folded preflop.
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Originally posted by Khiiniau
When my daygraph looks like that there is normally 2 reasons:
1) few badbeats after flop or turn all-inns with 75-90%
2) many lost flop and turn coinflips with 50-60%, many of those with hands that should have been folded preflop.
Well, those were "All-in or Fold" tables, so that comes with the territory.
OK, in AoF is really high variance. AoFH or AoFO ? I have played only AoFO. Pokercraft graph for all my 7500 hands this year:
People mistakenly often think that there would be no variance if the game is essentially coin flipping. I have played casino table games a lot in certain promotions. Baccarat is coin flip game and blackjack is somewhat similar to AoF variance. In both I have run several hundred bets under EV in relatively short period of games.
In AoF we go all-in way more lightly than in normal poker, so I wouldn't even compare their variances. AoF is closer to casino games variance.
AoF holdem looks really boring to me, as the games is quite easily simulated with solver. Not sure how beatable it is due to rake thought. AoF PLO is very easily simulated with solver, so quite fast it becomes boring too. Just like black jack, you learn perfect strategy easily and then you just play it.
"Nah, the games are beatable and the varaince is minimal at these games!
Let me prove so with some graphs of different sessions:"
I can see the pun 
... Pokercraft does not include the rake as well y'all know that right?
Yeah, pokercraft doesn't include rake. One of those "features" from GG that they pretty much "forgot" to mention.
Breakeven pre-rake at AoF PLO seems to me that there is definitely some core flaws in strategy. Or you play at stakes where opponents are good and no one really has edge. But what I have seen at lower level, opponents are making quite many mistakes which should lead to Hero having an edge.
If I remember right, you should shove all backdoor royal flush draws too.
When the sample size is big and graph is steady, it's not about few setups etc. I also think that your stat on GG hud doesn't matter. If you play at lower stakes, opponents don't care about it. If you play higher stakes where opponents look at it AND understand what it actually means AND how to adjust to it, your edge is never good enough to beat the rake.
AoF is really about understanding situational difference (early positions vs late positions) and what to shove and call on different board structures. It is fairly simple game, as there are very limited preflop situations. I suppose you have already seen this: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/content/All-in-or-Fold-Omaha-strategy_126547/
edit. In the written article, it seems that editor has swapped CO and SB positions. Might not have understoon that in PLO AoF CO acts first. Strategies are right, as long as you change CO <-> SB in the header.
Originally posted by Timmaywin
Beginning to feel like a schizo really, tilting like a monkey, doesn't feel nice at all.I can really use some windfalls soon in life man, I'm really tired of losing, I can tell you that, it is crushing my motivation to live...
I know the feeling, but please try to put things in perspective in those kinds of situations and remember that at the end of the day, it's just some stupid card game. We're all here because we share a strong interest in poker, but there is more to life.
I played 0,2 PLO AoF today for fun. Ev line was quite break even, played around 2K hands. But I paid 7bb/100 rake, which is just insane. Nearly $30 in rake. Leaderboard win gives $12. Royal flush comes around every 500K hands (if I remember right), and you won't get care chips for 5bb stacks.
I made few mistakes (probably), but overall et EV line was between +25bb and -25bb. Profit line went $30 down in 400 hands, and up $20 in 300 hands. So the variance is cruel. Overall I think that playing PLO AoF is just now worth it. Not sure if it's beatable without hitting the royal flush or bad beat jackpot. Probably not, and even when you hit those it's still marginally +EV at most. If even that.
There are sometimes casino games or casino-type of mixed games mixed up with poker games in cardroom/casino. You could win with hit and run if you manage to hit i guess..
Looks like I have an error in my video, where I estimated that we get Royal Flush every 500K hands. The actual odds are 1 out of 10970 hands, if we go all-in with every hand. If we see flop about 20% of hands, that would be jackpot on 50K hands on average. Looks like I just made one small decimal error in my calcs for the video ♦
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Looks like I have an error in my video, where I estimated that we get Royal Flush every 500K hands. The actual odds are 1 out of 10970 hands, if we go all-in with every hand. If we see flop about 20% of hands, that would be jackpot on 50K hands on average. Looks like I just made one small decimal error in my calcs for the video ♦
Thanks for clearing that up!