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topset unimproved, flush and straight completes on the river

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Timmaywin
Joined: 23.02.2010

Villain has 85vpip/23pfr over 13 hands.

Would you play this hand differently? When I check the river, he can also bluff easily, so I decide to barrel 3rd time.

In my opinion, it wouldn't have mattered how I played it, I just got unlucky vs. 9% and 7,50% odds from a guy that called with pure SD and calls with trahs on a river where I can easily have higher straight or a flush.

A hand that was before this one vs. the same guy: (that is part of my reasoning)

Spoiler


So he is clearly capable of potbet bluffing the river


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Would not mind to open fold in 7 handed table but with soft table open is fine.

Usually not using pot cbet but if villain is this call happy then why not. Turn easy pot.

River is pretty much worst possible. We have clear check and fold versus anyone imo.

Originally posted by Timmaywin
Would you play this hand differently? When I check the river, he can also bluff easily, so I decide to barrel 3rd time.

So we decided to turn hand into bluff? Villain is not folding flushes and perhaps not straights either. Btw shoving nut straight for value in our shoes would also be too loose. Problem with river shove is that weaker is very unlikely to call and not many better fold. With x-c we could still win versus rare bluff so if we dont want to x-f I would still prefer x-c over bet.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

There is a difference between "opponent could bluff" and "opponent will bluff".

If we check and opponent shoves, we don't know if he is bluffing or not. We don't know if he is bluffing often (and we should call more often) or not. But we should base our decision on rational thinking instead of how we feel. One good way is to think how easy (=how often) it is him to have natural bluffs?

Natural bluff is a bluffing hand that makes a lot of sense for him to have. Like here, 2222 is a hand that probably would bluff the river, but it's quite unnatural for him to have it. AhQcQ7c would be more natural hand to have, and might bluff the river.

As a rule of thumb, the longer it takes for you to figure out natural bluffs, the less likely it is that he is bluffing. Here, for him to have a natural bluffing hand it would require missed clubs draw. J9 OESD misses too, but he wouldn't call river with naked J9. You are blocking clubs and you are not really blocking straight draws and not blocking hearts.

So overall you are blocking his bluffing range and unblocking his value range. Also it's not easy to see a lot of natural bluffs for him. The result of that would indicate, that his calling/shoving range is quite value heavy. Therefore I think it's quite easy check-fold.

If that seems hard when playing, it might be the result of getting attached to a hand. You have a strong hand on the flop and turn, and you might already think you have won it. River shatters that thought, and it can be hard to let go of that feeling. But then that feeling is making the decisions instead of logic strategy.


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Timmaywin
Joined: 23.02.2010

Thanks for the remarks guys.

Originally posted by ghaleon
Would not mind to open fold in 7 handed table but with soft table open is fine.

Because of UTG position and not enough nut potential I guess?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
If that seems hard when playing, it might be the result of getting attached to a hand.

Think this is the case, yes.
Topset is a nice made hand in PLO, but losing with it on the turn or river is also a very standard outcome unfortunatly...


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ZakYoun270
Joined: 10.12.2015

Looks fine up to til river, river I think you should check. Aside from 888 and 333 he doesn't have a lot of calling hands. We have KTT so that blocks a lot of his two pairs he might be interested to call with. And straight and flush are out there so targeting two pair is pretty optimistic anyway. Seems like you should check call or check fold river rather than bet.

Our hand makes a pretty bad call on the river too imo. We have clubs, we have a set, we block two pair. So villain has to have something else. Or to put it other ways, We have everything except straight and hearts, so it makes sense for villain to have straight or hearts. He called pot pot, picking up hearts is definitely possible, straight draw on flop very possible.


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