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Primetime stream is at Saturday! Come and learn why moneyline Kansas City Chiefs is a really bad bet, no matter which team you support or how you approach the game. 
Ladies and gentlemen, it's super bowl sunday! In case you missed the stream yesterday, here are my picks for the game:
MVP Mahomes instead
of ML Chiefs
If you root for the Chiefs, you should bet on Mahomes getting MVP instead of moneyline. If Chiefs win, it's over 95% of times that Mahomes gets the MVP. The only realistic scenario of that not happening is if defense scores a lot. And even then Mahomes would need to have a bad game. Not happening.
MVP is QB (1.50)
For Eagles the MVP candidates are RB Barkley and QB Hurts. In betting markets, Barkley is somehow bigger favorite to win MVP, which is weird. NFL is QB weighted organization, and if RB and QB are having a good game, QB always wins the MVP. In my opinion it's 60/40 towards Hurts to win MVP if Eagles win. So the odds for QB to win MVP is is about 77%. Odds of 1.50 means that if it happens over 67% of times it's profitable.
Hunt rush att 12+ (1.99)
Hunt over 43,5y (1.89)
Hunt TD (2.40)
Chiefs RB Hunt has had increased load during the playoffs. In last game he was clear #1 RB, and as it worked there's no evidence that the situation would change. 12 rushing attemps for RB is not that much. As I expect him to carry the ball at least that many times, it's quite logical to bet on his rushing yards, where the line is a bit low. For TD one interesting thing is that if the ball gets placed near the goal line (defensive penalty at the endzone), Eagles uses Tush Push almost always (that is where QB is pushed to the goal by other offensive players). But Chiefs are not risking Mahomes with it, they try to ram the ball to the endzone with Hunt. And as RB, he could break and run the goal otherwise too. High odds if definitely worth playing.
Hurts TD (1.91)
Barkley TD (1.50)
Hurts TD was explained in Tush Push, and he likes to run the ball in the redzone (20y from the goal). RB Barkley is the key for Eagles to win the game, he will carry the ball a lot.
Duration of "brave"
under 3,5sec (1.78)
Duration of the national anthem is tricky this year, as the artist is jaazz musician Jon Batiste. And in jazz, they don't like logic or rules. It could be short, long or whatever. But Batiste is not that kind of a singer who likes to play with his voice, he likes to play piano. Duration of the last word in the national anthem "brave" was 1sec long in his last national anthem performance in the NBA finals. To make it 4sec long, that would be weird.
Punts under 6,5 (1.77)
Both offenses are really good in moving the ball. Especially when the field is long. Once they get to the midfield, both teams like to go for it at 4th downs, and then a bit closer to kick field goals. 7 or more punts in a game of two good offenses? Naah.
Jones sacks under 0,5 (1.70)
Chris Jones is a beast. But he made only 5 sacks during the season. Some of those games were against really poor teams. Now he is facing the best offensive line in the league, and mobile QB. According to numbers, it's unlikely that Jones will make a sack.
I have total of 320e in bets for Super Bowl. Poker is up around ~50e this weekend. Goal is to make 250e profit during this week, let's go!
Have fun watching the game tonight! And good luck with your bets! :f_drink::f_drink:
Did you place single bets? Or do you place combo bets?
I placed a few bets based on your tips from the Saturday stream, just for a few bucks though.
Including this one: (€5 bet and 11.50 combined odds):
Total Rushing Yards by Player - Including Overtime: Hunt, Kareem - Over 43.5
Touchdown Scorer - Including Overtime: Hunt, Kareem - Yes
Touchdown Scorer - Including Overtime: Hurts, Jalen - Yes
Touchdown Scorer - Including Overtime: Barkley, Saquon - Yes
Absurd game. For some reason, Chiefs decided to abandon running game. And the few runs they did, the other RB was the carrier. Hindsight it's easy to say that it was a horrible decision.
This was the worst Super Bowl I have ever seen, I am pissed off that most bets were misses and that I stayed up and watched this shit.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Absurd game. For some reason, Chiefs decided to abandon running game. And the few runs they did, the other RB was the carrier. Hindsight it's easy to say that it was a horrible decision.This was the worst Super Bowl I have ever seen, I am pissed off that most bets were misses and that I stayed up and watched this shit.
Yep, what a disappointment... 
Lost few bucks in Super Bowl bets, but got a promotion that has EV of pretty much the same as the losses. So I will book that as break even.
Morning session in poker was a nasty one. EV wise well profitable, but lost all bigger pots to AA vs rundowns when most of the stacks go in preflop. In the end it was break even too, but there were some good chances to make it big.
GG algorithm for badbeat flipament is seriously broken. I was on a 3way turn on J542, money went in and I had JJ, one player 55 and third 563x. Straight wins, 55 was drawing dead. But that 55 player got chips for badbeat flipament, I didn't. No idea why, we all had 100bb stacks.
Here is a classic example how not to tell a story:
Spoiler
I open, aggro button 3bets and I call. On the flop he bets 1/3 pot, I call. Turn goes check-check, on the river I check and he bets big fast. I call. He probably marks me as a calling station. ♦
Well, on the flop he can have a lot, from nuts to air. But once he checks back the turn, he should never have QT. He could check a set, but I would expect him (aggro) to bet it as there is a flush draw on the flop. On the river, his value range is T7, which I was worried a bit. Some kind of T97x kind of hand would make sense a bit. As I have QT/T7 in my range he shouldn't make a quick and big bet on the river imo. He could think that my river check removes straights from my range, so there is a small chance that he is valuebetting sets. But often people would think for a while if I could have a straight or not.
So overall, his bet is telling a story of QT mostly, but after turn check his story doesn't add up. And we know he is an aggro, so the odds for him bluffing are way above the required to make the call.
And yes, he should definitely barrell turn and river. If he checks the turn, he should check the river and go to showdown.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
GG algorithm for badbeat flipament is seriously broken. I was on a 3way turn on J542, money went in and I had JJ, one player 55 and third 563x. Straight wins, 55 was drawing dead. But that 55 player got chips for badbeat flipament, I didn't. No idea why, we all had 100bb stacks.
Yes, these so called "bad beats" where you earn chips for the all-in flipout are actually "bad plays" or "coolers".
I just don't get it why losing bottom set to a straight is a bad beat, but losing top set to a straight isn't? Or is it because he lost twice, set vs set and set vs straight?
Well, you are right (it doesn't make sense), losing with top set to a straight is as much of a "bad" beat as losing with bottom set to a straight.
Thing is that only one player can win a GG Cheers or a GG Bad beat in a hand, so not two players can win "bad beat" chips in this hand that you mention.
Than maybe the algorithem looks at this 55xx guy and weighs his cooler+suckout more heavy to a bad beat.
Also the pot has to be 300BB+ to even trigger the "bad beat" or "GG Cheers", with an execption to hitting a straight flush or better, where you always seem to get "GG Cheers" chips for the hand. Also, the amount of chips that you get for the flipout is always based on the potsize and stake that you play.
edit: Congrats on winning $50 in the Raffle! :f_thumbsup::f_cool:
Rough day. In the end lost $100, 10buyins. That's pretty much all the bigger pots (300bb+). Couple times got it in with nuts versus a draw, and customers just hit all the rivers. And few here I get SPR under 1 on the flop with AA pre-raise, only to see that opponent got creative with crappy 3bet and hit on the flop. Just an average run on those pots would make the day profitable.
I got $50 on blogger raffle, which helps a little. And on the other site I got few bucks profit too. But it's so damn frustrating to grind stack up from small pots, only to get to the point where I get it in with big equity for a huge pot. And someone decided to shove stack with crappy draw. Or call the flop with gutshot, hit a backdoor draw on the turn call almost his whole stack, and spike it.
Or the guy who limps Aces, calls my raise. Flop is A73ss, check-check. Turn is 9, he checks (he has the nuts), I pot with A9, he calls. River is 9, he checks, I bet and he shoves. And I am like WTF?!, and can't believe he would play AA that way. But of course he did.
Some weird poop is going on at R&C. Encountered today multiple players from Russia and China, who had similar nitty stats of 18/11/3. But none of them 3bet Aces, they just called them pre. And the spots were not those kind of spots where you could or should flat them. It was consistent non-3bet with AAxx hands. Instead that 3% 3bet range was made up of weird hands like AK83ss, JT98r and so on. Normally I wouldn't pay too much attention, but I haven't seen that before and it was multiple players. Is there some kind of PLO10 stable that teaches bad tactics? Or are they just a bunch of friend who thought they have cracked PLO? What ever it is, it's not that great strategy. They might learn fast that even if just calling with AA works sometimes (most of the times they just miss value), 3betting crap never works in the long run.
I mean, if you have edge at GG's PLO10 tables, you can do pretty much anything right... i should look into PLO but maybe on smaller sites, trying to tablestart and get fish HU.. this might actually work at PLO2 already.. but what is the main difference between NLHE and PLO? like what do you keep in mind in PLO while playing that you dont in NLHE? or it is pretty much the same game but you can't push in PL ?
Yep, I'm also encountering these nitty players on GGPoker PLO10.
I can imagine some spots where you flat with AAxx, like when you're in the blinds with naked AA and are basically setmining...
And the doomswitch seems to be real at GGPoker (kidding a bit ofc), when you start losing against backdoor bullshit hands when all-in on the flop with 80%+equity, yeah, better close the software and try again tomorrow. You can't outgrind your mindset...
I tried PLO10 R&C this week, and I am quite sure the only reason I would play there is if I want to play at mornings and midday. I was up a little, but I think I just got hits a lot and when it evened out I was more closer to actual EV. Most of the profits come from leaderboard and "rakeback", although PVI screws the rakeback to 10%. On other "normal" sites the action is at evenings, at GG the happy hour is as morning. But as most of the pool are VPIP ~20, it's so hard to get good value. Yeah, sometimes you get loose calls but quite often when you have the nuts people just fold. And as so many players slowplay so much, it's really hard to put people on ranges. Like you bet flop, they call and you think their range is capped. Or they check-call flop, check-call turn and you think that NOW they are capped. And they donk blank river and you scratch your head. I also toned down 3betting as average RFI is quite low, there will be 4bet way more often than normally. But anyway, compared to $/h I get a lot more playing PLO5 at anywhere else. During my off days or weekends I might play R&C, but only if I have the possibility to play happy hours too.