I have a note on that player "Does not bluff on river". Which means I haven't seen a single river bluff from him, as I haven't changed the note. Still, I make bluff catches, like thinking "he is repping backdoor straight, but he wouldn't call flop without a solid hand. So he is repping really specific hand, I am blocking it and I am quite high on my range here. Have to call.". And he has the exact hand he was repping.
Sometimes it's hard to stick to the plan.
Yesterday's session was a weird one. For the whole session I got bad runouts, bad rivers, bad bluff catches etc. There were two players that man-handled me, while their strategy was really transparent. One was maniac, who opened or 3bet most of the hands. I was oop to him, but the plan was simple. Open hands that I was ready to 4bet and limp-call with hands that I wanted to play SRP with. Really simple plan, but the opponent never adjusts to that. Just smashes pot button pre and post. Just waiting for a hit and then either check-call and let him pot with all his range or raise flop/turn. It worked for preflop and flop wonderfully, but turns and rivers were pretty much the worst ones all the time. And most of the times I bluff catched, he had made some runner runner stuff.
Another opponent was VPIP 90, who mindonked flop always. And called flop raise almost always. I got good amount of money in on flops and turns, but he just smashed rivers like a god.
To add salt to my frustration wounds, versus other opponents the runouts were also quite nasty. I think this was the session where I made most hero folds in my life, by far. And the few times I couldn't, the opponent had the backdoor straight when he called the flop pot raise with air.
So the feeling during the session and after was a bit frustrated. I know that in the long run the strategies work, but when you get punched in mouth over and over again, it's so easy to start to question yourself. In the end I won few bigger pots, and it ended up in nice profit. I am quite happy that even as I got frustrated and said in my mind multiple times "oh you gotta be f***** kidding me!), I didn't react in the tables. I told myself quite few times that "this is the dangerzone for me and the exact spot where my mental game might break down. So keep it tight, keep it right.". And just when I was starting to close the session, this hand happened versus new tag-reg and session ended up in profits:
Hero (MP): 301.4 BB
CO: 196.2 BB (VPIP: 59.38, PFR: 0.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 422)
BTN: 251 BB (VPIP: 85.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 28)
SB: 18.4 BB (VPIP: 60.13, PFR: 15.41, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 600)
BB: 37 BB (VPIP: 68.15, PFR: 21.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.81, Hands: 3,593)
UTG: 31.8 BB (VPIP: 29.48, PFR: 1.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.42, Hands: 4,701)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ J♦ J♣ 4♦
fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, BTN raises to 5.8 BB, SB calls 5.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, CO calls 2.4 BB
Flop: (24.2 BB, 4 players) 2♥ 3♠ J♠
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 18 BB, fold, Hero raises to 78.2 BB, fold, BTN calls 60.2 BB
Turn: (180.6 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero bets 180.6 BB, BTN calls 167 BB
River: (514.6 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Players agreed to run it twice.
River #2: (514.6 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero shows Q♣ J♦ J♣ 4♦ (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
Board #1 (Pre 37%, Flop 67%, Turn 78%)
(Three of a Kind, Jacks)
Board #2 (Pre 37%, Flop 66%, Turn 77%)
BTN shows A♠ A♥ 8♠ Q♠ (One Pair, Aces)
Board #1 (Pre 63%, Flop 33%, Turn 23%)
(One Pair, Aces)
Board #2 (Pre 63%, Flop 34%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 248.8 BB
Hero wins 248.8 BB
I got owned HARD today. First half of the session was just normal, running a bit bad. Then a superaggro sat in. Played 100/100/100, potting everything pre and was happy to shove anything preflop, no matter how deep. Like shoving 8882r 100bb deep. The plan was simple, limp with hands that can hit hard enough to happily stack, and open/3bet hands that I am happy to get it in with. Good plan, except I kept missing the flops. And when I hit them, I got sucked out. Went almost 10 buyins down versus just him. Got the money in multiple times with great equity, but with RIT he won the other run. Here are couple examples of his run:
This is prelfop allin for 650bb pot, third player with J553 was 390bb deep, 550bb sidepot with the aggro. And I thought that I was in a good shape on the flop, with over 80% equity. No luck.
Another preflop allin, here I had a bit over 70% on the flop. Which is a lot lower than I expected as he is drawing only gs and runner runners.
Result of the session, a bit swingy today:
Another rough session. There was another aggro, who wanted to gamble. Too bad he hit his trash like god while I hit like semi-god. At other tables good customers also gave few setups. 15 minutes into session and I was almost 10 buyins down, wondering what happened. But the grind after that was pretty solid, as you can see from the graph.
Here I started to see monsters everywhere.
Opponents (BB) is 88/0/0 before this hand, and he made a min3bet pre. We both check the flop and UTG (short stack) bets the flop. Low SPR, of course we shove it and hope BB makes some kind of a hero call. Instead he made the call with 100% equity. As soon as he raised, I was like "oh yeah, here we go again...." And as the session had been rough, it hit a bit harder. Of course it shouldn't, but it did.
Couple hands later he makes another min3bet, and we go 3 way to flop. He checks, CO checks and I pot the flop (as both opponents are really good customers). And SB goes for pot check-raise. We are 200bb deep here, and for a brief moment I was about to hero fold. We still have 170bb behind, and opponent was passive. But the sample size was still somewhat small, and I thought that my default versus player pool is to get it in as it's 3bet pot. It's amazing how often people shove Aces on any flop, even deep. And to make a fold, I would need more info that opponent doesn't overplay hands.
His hand was really surprising, I expected AAJT, AAQx type of hands. But he somehow wanted to 3bet that hand (was his 2nd 3bet ever, the first one was AA from previous hand). And then c-raise flop with naked TPTK. And the most amazing thing is that I won both runs!
Rought times. Last few days have been quite annoying at the tables. Hits don't hold, runouts are bad, 90%+ equity loses or gets split, can't hit big draws etc. My feeling is that my draws just can't hit, and with my topset or nutstraight turn flushes and river pairs the board way too often. And I have been so many times in a situation where I raise my set on the flop, opponent calls and turn completes his gutshot, money goes in with SPR < 0,5. Still, with quite horrible run the EV adjusted line is profitable. It's just about the long run. But how long will it take until it turns? December was 35 buyins under EV, January looked like it would turn but it was just a prank, it didn't.
Late night session, and for a while it looked like the same struggle just keeps going on. Then I managed to get marginal profit, and was cheering for a winning session! I was already thinking how I can post it to here with few bb winnings. But then people started to do crazy shit (Friday?) and my hands started to hit and hold every now and then. And as you can see, once again most of the session was quite good.
In this hand I was in the bottom of that hole today, just losing to really bad plays over and over again. Funny how easily it affect to mentality:
Opponent is aggro, single raised pot and I flop the nut boat. We are about 180bb deep effective. He donks 2bbwhile taking almost the whole timebank. I raise, he takes the timebank and minraises me back. At this point I started to get a bit worried, as that line was quite weird from him. He doesn't usually get tricky, he plays somewhat straightforward poker with wide ranges and stacking off easily, if there is significant money in the pot. But here the pot is very small, and suddenly I don't feel that good with my boat. Versus aggro at Friday, I don't think folding is ever an option. And at these stakes, folding is never and option against anyone. Even the nitties nit can stack off with 97, and there are twice as many combos for 97 than 77. So the question is, how to get the money in? If he is getting creative with a bluff, I don't think he would barrell if I call that re-raise. And using timebank to end is rarely a bluff. Quite often it means very strong hand. So I make a small raise, making it somewhat impossible for him to fold his 7xxx. Once again he uses his timebank and additional time, and pots it back. I was thinking that "really....?" and that timebank-minbet-clickback show started to look like 77. I took a deep breath and called, while preparing myself for another cooler in big pot. He had KKT7, for 14% equity. Turn was a T for additional sweat but River bricked.
Here is the biggest profit of the day:
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.82, PFR: 13.35, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 1,084)
CO: 379.2 BB (VPIP: 78.79, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BTN: 145.6 BB (VPIP: 41.15, PFR: 0.44, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1,141)
Hero (SB): 103 BB
BB: 99.2 BB (VPIP: 27.01, PFR: 2.35, 3Bet Preflop: 1.53, Hands: 2,556)
UTG: 148.4 BB (VPIP: 33.87, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♣ K♠ Q♣ A♠
fold, MP raises to 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 14.6 BB, fold, MP calls 11.2 BB, CO calls 11.2 BB
3bet and 2 callers, just another day in the office.
Flop: (44.8 BB, 3 players) 4♥ 5♠ 2♥
Hero bets 44.8 BB, MP calls 44.8 BB, CO calls 44.8 BB
Flop is total miss, in SPR 2. MP is a solid tag, who's range is weighted to higher cards. PFR 13% should mean that those low cards are in the range if he has some kind of KK45sd type of hand etc. We block high pairs, so his range is weighted towards higher rundowns. CO is VPIP 80 good customer, who could have anything. I estimated that MP shouldn't crush us often and versus him we should have good FE or he gets it in with a FD. CO is a mystery, but we are ahead of his range. We have FE versus missed hands (that would have some equity still), and his stack off range has hands that we are flipping against or even slightly ahead.
Versus their ranges we have 33% equity on average. If their calling ranges are fd or any pair from the board, versus those we have 24% equity and over 50% FE versu MP and about 30FE versus CO. Check is definitely a good option, although pot isn't horrible. This wasn't a tilt shove, I thought about the spot but overestimated FE on CO part.
To my surprise they both call.
Turn: (179.2 BB, 3 players) 5♣
Hero bets 43.6 BB, MP calls 40.6 BB, CO calls 43.6 BB
As they call they shouldn't have straights, sets or even 2 pairs often. So the question is if either one has the case 5. Of course we shove here. Both snap call, and we have over 50% 3way with that turn. We were running a bit thin on the flop, but finally Fortuna smiled a bit.
River: (307 BB, 3 players) 9♦
MP shows J♠ Q♥ 2♣ A♥ (Two Pair, Fives and Twos)
Main Pot [301 BB]: (Pre 24%, Flop 56%, Turn 33%)
CO shows 9♠ 3♦ Q♦ 4♦ (Two Pair, Nines and Fives)
Main Pot [301 BB]: (Pre 27%, Flop 25%, Turn 14%)
Side Pot#1 [6 BB]: (Pre 35%, Flop 53%, Turn 17%)
Hero shows A♣ K♠ Q♣ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Fives)
Main Pot [301 BB]: (Pre 49%, Flop 18%, Turn 53%)
Side Pot#1 [6 BB]: (Pre 66%, Flop 47%, Turn 83%)
Hero wins 296.8 BB
Heh that KKT7 play was quite something. Basically crappy trips so easy pile in with spr 20!
Nice redemption.
It's not very often a six is an absolute blocker.
It is a really important card in hi/lo though.
I call it "the magic six"
It is quite frequent that two players split the low pot with 5,4,3,2,A — but if one of them holds the six as well, they get three quarters
Hmm. That last post is not mine. It's Vorpal's but somehow instead of quoting he edited my original message. It was a nice post and there were redemption hand. Too bad I don't have the pics anymore and can't remember the exact hand, so that post is lost (unless tech nerds can revive it).
Today was a roller coaster, once again. Up and down, and those downs were brutal. Losing both runs to 10% equity, and this was the cherry:
I have never lost quads vs quads. Have been on the winning side once. Too bad the site doesn't have bad beat jackpot. It's limped pot, I am on BB. I bet the flop, and I bet the turn. He raises, money goes in 80bb deep. BAM!
This was really weird from the opponent:
Single raised pot, and opponent had 3,2bb on the flop. He minbets, I call. Turn goes check-check (he has the nuts, 2,2bb to 10,2bb pot. And slowplays. I check, river is a Jack and he still checks with 2nd nuts. I bet, he calls and I thank him for that slowplay. But why does he get that tricky? I would get it somehow if were any deeper, some players like to super tricky with nuts. But here, 1/5 pot behind... lol.
As the yesterday's post is lost, here is the graph for yesterday and today. EV line is quite solid, the green one was breakevenish for most of these days.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
I have never lost quads vs quads. Have been on the winning side once. Too bad the site doesn't have bad beat jackpot. It's limped pot, I am on BB. I bet the flop, and I bet the turn. He raises, money goes in 80bb deep. BAM!
In GGpoker that hand wouldn't trigger a bad beat jackpot:
Both the winner and the loser must use both hole cards (two hole cards for PLO/PLO-5/ PLO-6) to make the best 5 card hand combination
Pocket pairs are required for the winner or loser to make a four of a kind
Did someone say rungood?
Sick hand. UGT was a reg who likes to overplay hands every now and then. BTN was a maniac, I just won an all-in versus him where he stacked off after his 3bet with pretty much a gutshot on the flop.
We are 280bb deep with BTN, UGT (100bb) opens. BTN (the maniac) min3bets and I thought about folding preflop, as we are deep and with BTN pot controlling is impossible. Folding is the easy play and I don't think anyone would argue with that. But then I thought that the implied odds are huge, so lets see the flop. Just have to understand that with maniac it's often flop decision to play for stacks (or huge pot) or fold. No middle ground. Then the worst happens, UTG 4bets and BTN calls. If folding seemed like an easy way out earlier, now the decision is even harder. There are huge implied odds, but most of the hits on the flop are vulnerable. But we started to play, no backing out anymore.
Flop is nice. Not perfect, but pretty much as good as I can hope for. I check, UTG pots and maniac reraises pot. And his range WIDE. He could do that even with QJT9dd, even how strange that sounds. We block KK/33, and versus 55 we have 10 outs. Some kind of Kxxx + fd would be nasty, but we have decent equity versus that. But the situation shows the problem of small cards. Our 2 pair hands are vulnerable and it doesn't feel that great to pile almost 300bb in. But with 2p+oesd versus super wide range, I get it in. UTG had the Aces, with a gutshot so his hand played itself. BTN has gs+fd. We have a bit under 50% for 300bb main pot and a bit over 60% for 370bb side pot. And the miracle happens, the hand holds!
The spot where I should not be:
MP: 40 BB
Hero (CO): 155 BB
BTN: 83.8 BB (VPIP: 60.29, PFR: 8.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.94, Hands: 628)
SB: 50.8 BB (VPIP: 56.76, PFR: 5.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
BB: 837.4 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 2.83, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 1,526)
UTG: 184.6 BB (VPIP: 60.71, PFR: 23.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.28, Hands: 926)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, MP posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has J♣ 9♠ 8♦ Q♣
UTG calls 1 BB, MP checks, Hero raises to 5.4 BB, fold, SB calls 5 BB, fold, UTG calls 4.4 BB, MP calls 4.4 BB
UTG is known aggro. Average stats are not THAT crazy, but he has two modes: either somewhat normal and then very aggro. Today he was very aggro.
Flop: (22.6 BB, 4 players) 5♣ 7♣ K♣
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets 11.2 BB, fold, UTG calls 11.2 BB, fold
Against these players, half a pot with 2nd nuts is normal.
Turn: (45 BB, 2 players) 4♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 22.4 BB, UTG raises to 112.2 BB, Hero raises to 138.4 BB, UTG calls 26.2 BB
On the turn I cbet again half a pot, and mr. Aggro goes for check-raise and we are 150bb deep in this hand. Two straight flushes get there too. And for a moment, I wasn't sure what to do. And that's the spot where I should not be, and I instantly realized that I didn't have a plan to that raise. I should have had, though. He could have the nutflush, or a Ac blocker. The raise was so quick, that it felt pre thought. If he had made a straight flush, I don't think he would snap-raise me very often. And if I bet the turn versus aggro, bet-folding would be pretty bad play. I took a deep breath and shoved it in, he super-snap called the rest.
And showed 8high flush.
River: (321.8 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Players agreed to run it twice.
River #2: (321.8 BB, 2 players) 5♦
UTG shows 8♠ 3♣ 8♣ 4♥ (Flush, King High)
Board #1 (Pre 35%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
(Flush, King High)
Board #2 (Pre 34%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows J♣ 9♠ 8♦ Q♣ (Flush, King High)
Board #1 (Pre 65%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
(Flush, King High)
Board #2 (Pre 66%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 155.6 BB
Hero wins 155.6 BB
January is few days short of wrapping it up. Overall results are nice (unless I just jinxed it!). Today and yesterday I played 3 sessions, and it showcased once again how strong the negativity bias is. I made a graph long time ago, which represented our feeling when we had as many good things happening to us as we had bad things. And on average, we feel negative things twice as strong as positive ones. So if we have both of them for the same amount, the net is that we feel pretty bad. Normally, on average.
Today was a prime example of that. First session (last night) was a good one, booked 10 buyins profit. Today the second session started strong, and everything felt good. Then came a 15 minutes of doom, suddenly getting the worst of variance and I crashed about 8 buyins down, dropping from good profits to some losses. And I felt bad, having these usual feelings of injustice and how unfair it was etc. But at that same time, the combined winrate from those two sessions was still over the average EV winrate. Logically, I should have felt good. But I didn't. And then comes the contradiction, I know that I played good and the result were better than on average, but still I felt bad. And that feels stupid, and then there is some shame for that. Feelings are funny business, we can't decide them. Just have to learn to live with them and guide them.
Anyway, the third session started well, then came the usual dip but in the end people handed me their stacks. And the overall result was really good. Don't get me wrong, I haven't tilted or had any mental meltdowns, just minor feelings that came during the session. I recognized them, and understood what lies beneath them and everything was good. But it's still funny that after all these years of improving my mental game still a normal variance can have that kind of effects.
The reason why I wanted to share this (and previous posts) is to show that most of us are just normal human beings, with feelings. Sometimes players think that they have to be robot-like cold machines that just grind (human bots?). We can't decide our feelings.
If hollywood had made a movie from my day, this would have been the highlight of that movie:
UTG opens with 50bb stack, MP calls. I 3bet (I think that call is a good option here, but in this table and spot I wanted to 3bet), SB and BB cold calls, shorty UTG 4bets all-in and MP folds. We can't really fold, and I don't think those cold callers would fold if I shove, and there is no point to shove preflop when I can see the flop first. So I call, and expect blinds to call too. SB calls, but passive BB goes all-in and I am wondering what the hell is going on, there are no Aces for everyone. But there is a lot of money in the pot already and 4ways usually everyone has around 25% on average so I think "whatever" and get it in.
I was REALLY surprised to see that no one had AA or KK, and was wondering why did UTG 4bet that crap and why did BB 5bet shove. And the miracle happens, we scoop the whole damn thing!
Some weirdness from today:
I open pre, and for some reason I didn't pay any attention to this table. I timed out on the flop, turn I was sitting out (opponent checked) and at that time I noticed the table. So I bet the river, opponent tanks and raises. It's a small pot, so folding is never an option. But I thought that what else could he have besides a straight flush? I called and hoped an overplayed Q high flush. Didn't expect to see a bottom straight. Running good, as timing out gives me more value. If I had bet the flop, he had just folded.
Opponent is one of the weirdest players I have ever seen in poker. Preflop stats are 84/2/1 with a big sample. Fold to cbet on the flop around 18%. But postflop aggression is high. Flop aggression is over 50%, mainly because he minbets flops a lot. But turn aggression is over 60% as is river's too. So statwise he is seeing the flop with almost all the hands, and gets to turn and river with most of them. And is very aggressive there. Even in multiway pots. And I am not sure if it's his preflop stats (the site has it's own hud too) that makes people fold a lot versus him. He is not a losing players, about breakeven. I have had a terrible timing with him, and he had hit magical turns and rivers soooooo often versus me. At some point I started to think he has some kind of cheat to see future cards. But it's just his style, making huge bluffs even with air, when he feels like it.
In this hand we are 160bb deep, and he limp-3bets me. He had made couple of min3bets earlier, this was a proper pot. I thought about shoving, but there was one player behind me and I didn't want to get it in 3way preflop without an Ace. That third player folded after my call. He pots the flop, and I shoved. The funny thing is that I have propably never seen him 3betting Aces, but I have seen tons of limp-calls with them. So I wasn't that worried about Aces anyway. He thinks for a while and calls for additional 65bb with naked gutshot on fd board. Quite an interesting play from 84/2/1 player.
Turn was a spade so I didn't even had to sweat for the river.
Saw this today from a somewhat solid looking reg. But it's quite common mistake among regs at lower stakes, and propably these flaws in strategy are one reason they are not making solid profits in the long run:
On the flop he (KJJ8) cbets. The problem here is that to me it looks like he doesn't have a plan for turn and river if he gets called. He does have a position, so if I call he has to either check back most turns (capping his range) or cbet with weak and vulnerable hand. Unless J or 9 comes. I check-raise him, cos I know that he is over cbetting. He calls, which is the major mistake here.
Every time someone check-raises, we have to assume that they will bet the turn. And the question should always be "how often we can continue on the turn?". Here he has pretty much J and 9 as outs that he can continue with. On any other turn he should be forced to fold if I bet. But I see these kind of calls from regs too quite often. Or calling pot sized raises with naked flush draw (not even nfd) or OESD. If they would have made simple pot odds calculations, they would realize that those calls are -EV and lowering their winrate (or increasing their loserate).
One reason might be emotional. Bet-folding seems weak, and they might not want to look weak. So it's more of an ego that wants to call and hope for a good turn.
This story has a happy ending. He called the flop, turn was a J, I bet and he shoved. River bricked twice and I won the pot.
Yeah very clear flop check. Even that J is dirty out as he found out. 98 being most likely straight draw especially from those that look to x-r flop.
I think they are just cbetting without thinking too much. And find themselves often is very nasty turn and river situations, when opponent doesn't fold. Most likely they don't even realize that the core issue is their cbet selection.
That's the next step in improving as a player. If you find yourself often in tricky spots, you should see if there is any similarities in how you got to that spot.
LOL, just as I was writing this I got an email from PLO Mastermind advertising how important flop decision is for turn and river. It said "A flop bet is only as good as your turn plan". Which is on spot!
January is in the books. Nice month:
Bankroll challenge (started 1.12.) is still running 30 buyins under EV, but that doesn't really matter when looking this total graph:
First session of February, and one of the very first hands:
Money went in on the flop in a limped pot. :f_mad::f_mad::f_mad:
I was thinking that "ok, this is the tone for February.... And it was. Quite many hands where I get 90% of my stack in on the turn, opponent just calls and hits his 5-15% couple outer. I hope that the whole month wouldn't be like this. I am leaving to cabin at Friday, last time I went to a cabin I got one week of horror run.
