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[Closed] 10K guaranteed AQ isolate

10 Posts
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bah22
Joined: 28.01.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1,600(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($11,298)
Hero ($26,612)
UTG ($11,075)
UTG+1 ($66,064)
UTG+2 ($116,977)
CO ($79,914)
BTN ($34,701)

CO antes $200
BTN antes $200
SB antes $200
Hero antes $200
UTG antes $200
UTG+1 antes $200
UTG+2 antes $200

Dealt to Hero A♣ Q♦

UTG raises to $10,875 (AI), fold, UTG+2 calls $10,875, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $26,412 (AI), UTG+2 calls $15,537

FLOP ($65,899) K♣ 5♦ 7♥

TURN ($65,899) K♣ 5♦ 7♥ Q♥

RIVER ($65,899) K♣ 5♦ 7♥ Q♥ 9♥

Hero shows A♣ Q♦
(Pre 30%, Flop 4.8%, Turn 3.6%)

UTG shows Q♠ A♥
(Pre 30%, Flop 4.8%, Turn 3.6%)

UTG+2 shows K♥ T♣
(Pre 39%, Flop 90.5%, Turn 92.9%)

UTG+2 wins $65,899

We were down to 15 people.
The UTG2 was calling station and my hand was in front of SS push. Is this push +EV?


9 replies
budzior
Joined: 26.02.2009

If he is a fish (and he is) you cant fold this anytime, if not he might be trapping in this situation but i dont think so you can fold here. You cant!


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

easy fold for me.
what hands are u hoping to see that those guys have???
ur either WB or fliping.
dint like it at all. fold


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008

nh you are ahead of utg+2 and SS ranges with those reads


budzior
Joined: 26.02.2009

Originally posted by TheRebuz
easy fold for me.
what hands are u hoping to see that those guys have???
ur either WB or fliping.
dint like it at all. fold

Its never easy fold in this situation. I cant see folding here. UTG is pushing here with wideeeee range, UTG+2 is a fish. Easy push with your very strong hand.


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

maybe is me just me but i dont like to play AQ AJ AT after some1 goes all in and some1 calles behind no mater how bad players they are I dont want to trible up shortstack and sure i dont want to be dominated or suckout from other player
and btw I NEVER RAISE THERE WITH THAT STACK I SHOVE OR FOLD


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008

with these reads the limp caller is giving you better odds with a (probably) weak range and hero is probably ahead of the SS range.
normally AQ should be a fold here but here the odds are too good and ranges too weak to fold imo.


im still folding aq here because of the calling station.
he will never ever ever fold to your small all in.
if your stack would be bigger i`d like the shove because then the station might fold his dead money away.
but here you dont have any fe.
not sure. it depends much on the ranges you give those players.
i think its almost break even play to shove here not better then this.
if you give those players a range like this

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.565% 30.39% 03.17% 868233630 90587777.17 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 32.659% 30.91% 01.74% 883127601 49831842.17 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 33.776% 31.45% 02.32% 898460876 66409609.67 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }

pretty close, its not an easy fold not an easy shove but i think both plays are fine.


bah22 Topic starter
bah22
Joined: 28.01.2008

Originally posted by grummeler
im still folding aq here because of the calling station.
he will never ever ever fold to your small all in.
if your stack would be bigger i`d like the shove because then the station might fold his dead money away.
but here you dont have any fe.
not sure. it depends much on the ranges you give those players.
i think its almost break even play to shove here not better then this.
if you give those players a range like this

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.565% 30.39% 03.17% 868233630 90587777.17 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 32.659% 30.91% 01.74% 883127601 49831842.17 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 33.776% 31.45% 02.32% 898460876 66409609.67 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }

pretty close, its not an easy fold not an easy shove but i think both plays are fine.

Ofc i don't have FE here vs BS but he was so loose and i was sure i was 50/50 or better. I am ahead of SS pushing range almost always and i really wanted to build a big stack here with all "dead money" in the pot. _biggrin:
As you can see(he had KT) you must give wider range to the brain dead BS and to the SS too, cause he is under 10BB and UTG...
All in all against this guy i would do it again cause if you win this hand, you are BS close before final table and you can easily make to the final 3-4 where the most money is anyway!


you asked for +ev
and i still think in ev terms its about break even because there isnt much "dead" mony in the pot because nobody who is in the pot now can fold anymore.
in tournament terms if the ranges are correct its better to shove because you have a better chance to WIN the tournament then.
so i agree with your thinking and the shove is fine.

but still you can also fold here because there will be better spots to get some chips against the calling station. if there is such a weak player on the table there will come so many really +ev spots that you dont really have to take this one.
but no matter its close to no meaning wether to fold or shove here.


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