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[Closed] Final table, call blind steal shove?

11 Posts
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rhinoneil
Joined: 16.04.2008

This is final table of $35K guarantedd mtt.
I am 3rd in chips, in SB facing an open shove from BU.
Is this a call?

$5k/$10k No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($373k)
UTG+1 ($74k)
MP1 ($46k)
MP2 ($156k)
CO ($51k)
BTN ($73k)
1rhinoneil ($131k)
BB ($59k)

Pre-Flop: ($23k, 8 players) 1rhinoneil is SB J♣ A♠
5 folds, BTN raises to $72k, 1rhinoneil ?


10 replies
Hlynkinn
Joined: 14.06.2008

I'm going broke there..
You have nice pot odds and AJo should be doing good enough against his range.


elekadammate
Joined: 15.02.2009

calling AT+ 66+ i think it's profitable


to call cost you 68K to win 95K but you need to put him on range and AJ is way ahead of that so easy call

here you only got 13bb and you should play to make top 3 where the money is and not just try to get up the money ladder


Albeback
Joined: 02.03.2009

easy call


rhinoneil
Joined: 16.04.2008

Thanks guys, I made the call and obviously was way ahead but got rivered:

$5k/$10k No Limit Holdem
iPoker
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($373k)
UTG+1 ($74k)
MP1 ($46k)
MP2 ($156k)
CO ($51k)
BTN ($73k)
1rhinoneil ($131k)
BB ($59k)

Pre-Flop: ($23k, 8 players) 1rhinoneil is SB J♣ A♠
5 folds, BTN raises to $72k, 1rhinoneil calls $67k, 1 fold

Flop: 2♥ 7♣ J♠ ($163k, 2 players)

Turn: 6♠ ($163k, 2 players)

River: 9♥ ($163k, 2 players)

Final Pot: $163k
BTN shows
8♣ 10:spade:
1rhinoneil shows
J♣ A♠

BTN wins $163k (net +$90k)

1rhinoneil lost $77k


budzior
Joined: 26.02.2009

Snap call.


larseda
Joined: 06.08.2006

most palyer push maybe 30-50% from button

-> easy call


I thought it might be nice to see how much equity you need to call according to the ICM since there is an unusual feature, the huge stack with 373k chips, almost 40% of the chips in play. Here are the results from my program ICM Explorer for a few prize structures.

PokerStars 180:
Fold: 126000 chips, 0.1221
Win: 214000 chips, 0.1624
Lose: 58000 chips, 0.0819
Tie: 136000 chips, 0.1271

Equity needed: 49.91%
Chip odds: 43.59%
Risk premium: 6.32%

PokerStars 90:
Fold: 126000 chips, 0.1245
Win: 214000 chips, 0.1612
Lose: 58000 chips, 0.0872
Tie: 136000 chips, 0.1292

Equity needed: 50.51%
Chip odds: 43.59%
Risk premium: 6.92%

Full Tilt 90:
Fold: 126000 chips, 0.1363
Win: 214000 chips, 0.1772
Lose: 58000 chips, 0.0935
Tie: 136000 chips, 0.1415

Equity needed: 51.12%
Chip odds: 43.59%
Risk premium: 7.53%

PokerStars 45:
Fold: 126000 chips, 0.1434
Win: 214000 chips, 0.1865
Lose: 58000 chips, 0.0947
Tie: 136000 chips, 0.149

Equity needed: 53.07%
Chip odds: 43.59%
Risk premium: 9.48%

Full Tilt 45:
Fold: 126000 chips, 0.1457
Win: 214000 chips, 0.2034
Lose: 58000 chips, 0.0854
Tie: 136000 chips, 0.1531

Equity needed: 51.12%
Chip odds: 43.59%
Risk premium: 7.53%

These all ignore the possibility that the BB would call if you fold, or would overcall if you call. Both possibilities make calling worse than folding, so you may need a few percent more than the above figures to make calling right. Nevertheless, the figures indicate that you don't need a hand much better than the BTN's range to call.


rhinoneil
Joined: 16.04.2008

Hi pzhon.
So are you saying call is good or not?
BB is all in if he calls also.


I agree that it is a good call. I am saying that under many prize structures, you have to be a little risk-averse, but you only need to be a little ahead of the BTN's range to call. AJo should be way ahead of the BTN's range.