Yes, you could run like shit it is possible, but being that u strees out ur bad luck in a way like opening a thread and then constantly rant, complain updating it for 6 whole pages ... It is just putting in too much time and effort into a completely wrong thing imo. Just try to put ur energy into improving even more (even if it gets impossible sometimes, because of lack of motivation and a forseeable goal). And do read Poker mindset, cuz I have a strong feeling that you didn`t.
Ajde, sa srecom 
I wanted to reply long time ago, but somehow never had the time to do it because of the tight "shedule" lately. Now I got a few minutes to spare.
Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
Seems like you learned how to play in last 3k sngs and you are still in positive over that sample, add RB and it's not that bad
Yeah, I guess I imroved a bit.
Rakeback on Stars? GIVE!
If by RB, you mean that VIP system, that's not very noticable untill I become Platinum/Super Nova. As Silver it's the equivalent of 10-ish % RB as I'm aware, but I managed to get Gold on the 31. August somehow, so it will be like 15% RB.
Originally posted by ihufa
i like how everyone denies the possibility that you're just running insanely cold and are playing fine. which is what the graph tells us.
Meh, I don't care if they don't believe me. I cared at the start though, but when I realised this site is apparently full of ignorant people who can't grasp the idea, then I gave up. Now I'm mainly here for the venting purposes.
Most of people here think that they know what I'm experiencing. If they lose 5 out of 25 AA for the particular day...it's the same, right? I imagined it and I should learn to play perhaps instead of whining...
If someone could be kind enough to direct me to some program that makes DoN graphs, so I can include those, I'd be at least 600 BI Under EV and not 300.
Originally posted by Gregor86
Yes, you could run like shit it is possible, but being that u strees out ur bad luck in a way like opening a thread and then constantly rant, complain updating it for 6 whole pages ... It is just putting in too much time and effort into a completely wrong thing imo. Just try to put ur energy into improving even more (even if it gets impossible sometimes, because of lack of motivation and a forseeable goal). And do read Poker mindset, cuz I have a strong feeling that you didn`t.Ajde, sa srecom
I dont think my rant is useless. Like I said, I do it to relieve the stress, so I can start the next day freshly. It's better then tilting on the tables like 99.9% people here does.You know why it's hard for me to improve at this moment? Because I'm stuck at the 3.25$ games due to my luck. I used to play 20.8$ DoNs before the downswing started, so my play actually downgraded in a way in order to adapt. And untill I jump to 6's and beyond, I won't be improving very much.
I za kraj, hvala.
.
Originally posted by ihufa
i like how everyone denies the possibility that you're just running insanely cold and are playing fine
I also like it, blaming the variance is just boring
epic thread
dons = earn you money only from rakeback
at the lowest stakes you need to win at least 6/10 to be BE (without rakeback).
i'd like to see your ev graph here
edit: i found it here, my advice to you is to quit or give up playing dons
if you are able to quit, do it, if ur not, try to quit slowly..i know what u talk, im constantly below ev, always, since i play, and that 12fucking months..really, quit, hope i will one day aswell, i just cant yet
Originally posted by taavi1337
Originally posted by ihufa
i like how everyone denies the possibility that you're just running insanely cold and are playing fineI also like it, blaming the variance is just boring
Like the hypochondriac's tomb stone read: "I told ya I was sick"
I got bored of reading all these pages but i think some simple ideas would say what i think:
- i don't think it's possible to have this kind of downswings at DON's. It just might be possible that your ROI is 1 or 2% more or less then your real ROI. That could translate in running 200BI under EV but i think it's absurd.
- bad beats are a part of the game!!! For example i lost 4 times heads up having 60% to win in a session and still ended up over my usual ROI. Basically you can see you're running bad, feel you're running bad, but actually you're ROI is bigger then it should be ---> you're not running bad, this is poker.
- i don't know if that EV line calculates bubble factors, which especially for DON's are important since they are so huge. If it doesn't it has absolutely no significance.
- you're not a very good poker player. Go learn poker.
It was really funny and interesting to read this toping because i felt a lot the same, but i think there are also a few faults in your thinking pattern.
A 4 procent variance is not abnormale. It s just bad luck. And you just have to thing that there wilm be a time that -4 procent becomes 0 again. So when that happens, you have a +4 variance.
You also noticed that a bigger stack wins more than a lower stack. This is totally normal. A bigger stacks calls more. He s not so feared of loosing(because he still has a change after the hand), his range is slightly bigger so when all in, the statistics for hands maybe is 70/30 but that didn't take account of previous hands.
Example 3 players left
t1=8000 t2=5000 t3=1500
t3 all in with kk
t1 calls with a7
t3 wins, next hand same deal, t1 and t3 all in and now ace on turn.
Is this a bad beat, yes, but if you look at two case as 1, is it stil a bad beat?
And last of all, your not alone, when i go all in, even if i have aa against a2, I still thing that there will be a double douce on table, and it happens.
i of my manny baddest beats;
aa against 99, all in after turn; a549; and on the river the only 9 drops.
Just thing the worse and all will be better.
Meh, I sustained myself from posting here at least 10 times already just this month, but today was the drop that overfilled the glass. I don't really like wasting any more of my time on this rant but right now I don't give a shit.
I won't be talking about the downswing anymore. The graph talks by itself.
It's still ~300 BI under after 16.000 SnGs.
How much down (or up? LOL) am I in DoNs we well see when PT4 comes out. I've been told it'll be good for DoNs so we'll see.
I'll be talking about the set-ups. You know, those hands which get my red line down when it shouldn't be down.
ONE IMPORTANT NOTE: For a while I've been table selecting, so I've been playing with the worst poker scum around. So naturally I can't believe someone with -50% ROI and 80% VPIP with 70% WTSD (Went to Showdown) when he resist my bets.
OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE: This has been happening throughout last 30 days constantly. Pictures I will post will be from just last 2 days.
1) Starting with today which was a horror show.
In around 100 SnG's payed I ran into QQ+ 47 mother fucking times.
I mean, I'm pushing with what I'm supposed to push based on situation and on their stats. And it's usually really good hands like AJ+ KQ and pairs which get cought by those monsters.
Only today I went with a pair into a higher pair 34 times. (and only 7 the other way around)
On top of that I had a bunch of other set-ups like getting my KK outflopped by 84 or Flush vs Full House etc.
Add another 20 BI under EV and we got a really nice day.
...now off to some specific set-ups:
2) Fish for your 3 outer and hit! (MY FAVORITE)
I guess it's my fault that I play those idiots and they should hit from time to time. And in reality I should be taking a lot of chips from them in the long run. But in my case, not often enough.
3 Outer on the flop should be like 12-ish % chance? It's more like 40%
Naturally I bet my big flopped hands knowing they will usually call with anything, you really can't shake those fuckers off.
Here are some good ol' fishing for runner-runners and 2-3 outers:
3) Flushes, Straights and Sets no good?
I just can't believe how often they fish for flush and it usually comes right on the turn. It's like it's not 30-something % chance for them to get it by the river. In my experience it's at least 60-70%.
I can fold my good hands when I think they caught they're draw, though. Here are some that I didn't:
4) Overpair on non-dangerous flop:
I'm not sure if I'm doing this wrong but I've been told that the paired flop is pretty safe, especially if the paired card is some low card, unlikely held by Villain.
My experience from the past whole month is that if they show resistance against my Overpair on the flop, they have me beat around 70% of the time. They can't have something like TPTK or just Top Pair or (god forbid) second pair which they are willing to go all in with.
No. What they have is fished out set or 2 pair or flopped straight with unlikely holding etc.
Makes sense.
Here are some screenshots:
And here is the special one I particularly like:
5) Top pair no good?
I'll keep this one short:
When we're HU I can't hit shit. Maybe a pair every 4 flops.
BUT when I do hit...he got better:
Actually, there were a lot more of these, maybe a little less set-up-ieee. Just couldn't post them all.
Anyway, I learnt and improved a lot over the past month.
Even with all this shit happening I still won like 300$ in December with ROI of like 3-4% (with 10 BI Under EV), although I should have won a lot more.
I guess I will have to be patient and grind my way out of this hole. Walls are slippery but I think I can make it.
.
"I'd have to win 4% more for next 5-6 months ... you can see the problem there ... it just won't happen to me. "
My man. What you are experiencing is "absolute thinking" or unreasonable thinking. My advice for you is change your attitude. you clearly know how to play the game, your attitude, however, is holding you back from forgetting about the 150 days of downswing, and pushing through this tough time. I competely feel for your losses, it just flat out sucks. The thing you should be focussed on right now is convincing yourself to keep playing your absolute best poker, and the results WILL come eventually I promise you.
You know that 150 days is such a small timeframe. If you live for 40 more years, and play poker for at least 20 more years, and play say 5 days a week, thats 5200 days left in your poker career, you have completed 2% of your poker career with 150 days of play if you add those days onto the 5200 you have left in your figurative career. if you win 4000 days, and minimize the losses on your 1200 losing days, you should be extremely satisfied with the amount of $$ your gonna make in those 4000 winning days. so just focus more on the long run then this short period of 150 days.
I would suggest maybe taking some time off to reevaluate your game, study, go out and do other things you enjoy, and maybe get inspired by something. Come back later and just CRUSH those limits your playing. From what you portray, you have the potential to make a living off poker my friend. not too many people have the capacity to become lifelong winners 
But we have it in us deep inside if we want it. Do you want it? or are you a quitter?
Best of luck,
Andrew
Makes my aa lose v ak two hands in a row seem like a nice holiday.
You should post some of the hands and get a judge to anakyse your play. Canr hurt
you have no idea about the law of probability. it does not know who you are nor does it have feelings. it just is. you either use it to your advantage or you will suffer like the rest of the fish. there is no such thing as luck, its just a word people use to understand whY these long odds fabricate themselves once in a while or for some once in every 3 all ins.. long odds to hit their 1/2/3 outer which will happen about x amount of times over y amount of hands. if poker always happened the EXACT way the probability was supposed to work out then everyone would think the game was boring, and there would be no element of surprise for example if im supposed to beat AA 5 times out of a hundred and i havent won against the AA 19 times, i would know for sure that the next one would payoff right? so that means all you would need is purely strategical knowledge to beat the game and all the fish who didnt know all this strategical bullshit would never EVER win and they would quit because the game just wasnt any fun.
you say NEVER>?>?>? raise with AK in early stages of sng..so your opponents will figure out that you only ever show PP's when you raise and know just to stay away from your >5% pfr range.......and people wonder why their AA and KK never get any action....
change your game,,,,you suck at DoN's btw...
i'd switch to cash games and get better at post flop play, people are less itching to get there money in bad when it costs them for every mistake...seems you have the patience to learn...just a suggestion
Hey guys, thanks for your responses.
@ilovemagic 1st Post
You're right. I actually took like 6 months off from poker, it became a little tiring. If you notice, my previous post was like 16 months ago.
After the break I started studying it a lot by watching a lot of videos and reading some books. I improved a lot, especially post flop and HU where I was very weak.
As of being patient and forgetting about last "150 days" (it's been more like 2 years), believe me when I say this: each single day I wake up optimistic and putting everything behind me thinking "today is the day when everything will tip to my favor".
But then it goes bananas again, it's either 10 BI under EV, or having 20 coolers. But no matter what happens, next day I will wake up optimistic again.
If, starting tomorrow, my luck turned normal, I would honestly forget about those 300 BI under. I just want all the crap to stop.
But for now, all I can do is to get my red line so high that I'm still a winning player no matter what happens.
@KozakFB
Go away ♦
@evertonroar
Yeah, I could do that. I just don't have the time to go through 100 SnGs a day to find some interesting hands to analyze.
@ilovemagic 2nd post
This one seems a bit off topic. Like you confused me with someone else.
Suck at DoNs? Last I played were DoNs at Merge network with 6% ROI over 6.000 games.
But I dropped those, changed my style of playing so I can't do those anymore. Also I become really irritated playing them now, for some reason.
@harvbucks
One sentence is sometimes enough.
I was actually pretty bad at post flop play, until recently. I'm much better at push/fold though.
Still, post flop at 3.5$ SnGs there's not much to do except to play straight forward. I mean, you can't bluff a donk to whom 4th pair is godly or guthsot is the nuts. So against those it's either value betting when you hit or bluff once and then give up if you meet some resistance.
If there happen to be some decent player I might exploit some of his weaknesses based on his stats, but I choose not to meet many of those yet.
When I hit the board, they (bad players) pay me off even if they have nothing. Set-ups in my favor are very rare. Some of today's hands to illustrate this:
or
or
They usually pay me off with like 3rd pair or a flush draw etc.
There were only really 2 set-ups today in my favor: with my flush vs his trips and my KK vs QQ on 237 board. Only that.
On the other hand, here is how my big hands are usually developed:
or like this:
These are just some of today's hands. Lost/had to fold half of my sets. When I hit something, board just keeps coming worse and worse and all I can do is either fold or lose as few chips possible, because if there is a draw on the board, they have the few missing cards to complete it every time.
I mean half the time when I'm supposed to double up, I'm fucked over.
P.S.: Thanks for your replies again.
.
Originally posted by mishkagg
Originally posted by NenadNacevic
I played around 12.000 Double or Nothings so far and I find myself to be a very good player.Advice 1 - See that's the problem - you should stop thinking you are a good player and start to search for leaks in your game.
Originally posted by NenadNacevic2 Months later I went down to 100 $ and I played better then before
Advice 2 - See Advice 1. Follow it this time!
Originally posted by NenadNacevic270 * 15 $ (average winning per one) = 4050 $
Thats how much was taken away from me.No. It was not taken from you because you never actually had them in your bankroll! Or can Phil Ivey say that a few million dollars were taken away from him when his AK lost to AQ from Darvin Moon at this year's WSOP?
What's taken from you when you lose all your chips in a tournament is your tourney equity, your buy in, not the money you think you should've won.Keep grinding and it'll be OK!
+1
This thread is 2 years old.
Either this guy is trollin or needs to keep posting this stuff to justify him loading up more money to blow away.
This thread blows my mind. Makes me feel better about when I tilt though!
Everyone realises of course that there will be an outlier for every so many million that play who will just never win? No matter how many hands they play perfectly shit will just happen... It's not bad luck, just statistics.
It's funny, I used to think that person was me but now I understand that I'm just shit at poker.
