Originally posted by Donmecon
Yesterday I wrote an article asking people to come up with a reason why they think poker isn't just pure luck. I didn't read one answer that showed there was any element of skill. Proving there is luck, whether it be good or bad is easy, but proving there is skill is impossible.
What is skill ?
Lets say you hold 77 and raised pre-flop - now that isn't skill - and you got one caller. The the flop came Jh 9c 5h what would you do. Of course a continuation bet - now that isn't skill - Your opponent calls. The next card out is the 8s , You have a possible straight if a 6 hits and if a 7 hits a set so 6 cards can help on the river. Your opponent may have a larger pair or two pair or a set or he may have a flush draw it is impossible to tell. Some of you may think Phil Ivey would know, well your deluded. He is human like you and me and wouldn't have a clue.
Now what do we do. We could bet and hope they fold. We could check and if they check get a free card or we could check and if they bet fold or come over the top. Who knows what to do, I certainly don't !
With a possible straight or set I think a bet is the choice - now that's not skill -...lets say half the pot, he calls. The river is the As
Now what do we do. If he was on a flush draw he is busted but apart from that it looks grim. Thing is do we want to risk more chips on another bet or do we just give up. A large bet may get them off their hand as I could be holding a straight or set or two pair myself. He hasn't a clue !
Lets say I decide give up and check and he also checks. He turns over Ah 3h. Ahhhhhhh
He was on a flush draw but fluked the ace on the river.
So there it is no skill in any part of that hand. Just bad luck for me and good luck for them !
I have bored you all enough now on this topic. Now go and play poker and by the way good luck !
77 is a standard raise preflop. Preflop skill is not where you make most of your money in hold'em though so I will not argue with you on the raise. You can continue thinking that preflop is 100% luck.
I would not cbet in that situation usually. This flop tends to hit calling ranges pretty hard. AJ A9 KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT will not fold this flop. Ax that misses and pairs are all you get to fold. You could cbet against a tighter player who would fold KQ KT and A9 as well; it is all about being observant and watching the players at your table (skill). You need to think more about the situation because it isn't just "I raised preflop so I cbet" NO!
Now as played on the turn we have to check/fold since he either has A: a bigger pair or B: a good draw with 10 or more outs to beat us.
This river is not one you should ever bet. You learn that the purpose of a bet is to either: A: make a better hand fold or B: make a worse hand call. K9 is the only better hand that might fold to you here so your bet was awful. You cannot do either so a check is the best option. If he bets the river you have to decide what he could be betting with. Ax KQ KT slowplayed hands and some awful bluffs. Against this range you are not doing too good so if the bet is of a reasonable size then you let him have the pot.
I would have made different decisions than you. I explained my thought process behind my decisions. Decisions are what skill is all about. When you play a game of chess and lose do you call that luck? How about a game of basketball and you lose is that luck? Are you going to continue being a breakeven player at poker playing super abc style same as everyone else and call it luck?
Oh and if you want some kind of mathematical proof on why there is skill in poker just forget it. Although it would fascinate me to see something like this it would probably be extremely difficult to understand.
