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[Closed] NL100 AA in 3bet pot CO vs BU

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mcneil
Joined: 09.09.2008

PokerStars - $1 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $102.00
BB: $120.55
UTG: $185.50
UTG+1: $100.00
MP: $56.50
CO: $110.25
Hero (BTN): $98.70

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has A♦ A♣

fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $3.00, Hero raises to $9.00, fold, fold, CO calls $6.00

Flop: ($19.50, 2 players) 7♦ 8♥ T♣
CO checks, Hero bets $13.00, CO raises to $39.00, Hero raises to $89.70 and is all-in, CO calls $50.70

Turn: ($198.90, 2 players) J♦

River: ($198.90, 2 players) 6♥

Villain is reg 12/10 with 4.1k hands.
I put him on a range of 67, 78, 89, 9T, TJ, 77-JJ. Do I have enough equity to shove on the flop?


2 replies

IMO u r thinking way to deeply. U have got a strong overpair in a 3bet pot CO vs BU, easy shove on the flop.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005


Board: 7♦8♥T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     48.25%  47.10%   1.15% { JJ-77, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
BU     51.75%  50.60%   1.15% { AA }

Yes, against this range you have the equity.

However I don't think hands like JTo-98o are in the opponents range, also he most likely folds small SCs OOP.

Imo he is much more likely to have only sets and overpairs in his range, but against this range we're doing fine (even better than against yours):

Board: 7♦8♥T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     40.23%  37.32%   2.91% { TT+, 88-77 }
BU     59.77%  56.86%   2.91% { AA }

Usually I'd consider calling his checkraise IP with the plan of getting it in on any turn except for maybe a J, but since there's so little money left he's committed with almost all hands anyway.

Nh imo.