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[Closed] set over set

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racenutalways
Joined: 03.07.2008

I read that set over sets will happen to you 1.02% at a 9 handed table. Thank god seeing that I'm up vs bigger sets over half the time. LOL
Out of the +1100 flopped sets, over 700k hands played at F/Tilt and P/Stars. I got action(by action I mean all-in on flop, no more betting)257 times and was up vs another set 55 times.
30 of those were bigger sets..

Out of those 257 sets, I was up vs an overpair 62 times, lost 15 of those to magic runner runner or 2 outer.

64 times I was up vs top pair and lost 7 of those.

60 times I was up against a draw, either a str8 or flush or bigger. lost 32 of those.

What I find interesting I was vs 2 pair only 16 times. Hmm!

So in essence sets vs another set 21%, lose 54.5%
vs opr 24%, lose 24.2%<--- much higher then 91.4% favorite
vs TP 25%, 25%, lose 10.9%<--- higher then 1.9%
vs draw 23%, lose 53.3% :: shouldn't I be 35ish%??
vs 2pr 0.06%, lose 0.06%

Does this look normal??? Trying to understand those large downswings(18-24 buyins) I have gone through in the last 15 months.
My winrate has been stuck at 1.5bb/100 hands. Luck hasn't been my friend LOL

Peace out! :f_p:


9 replies

Maybe it's just me, but sometimes top pair may have a draw too.
If you have HEM, I'm not sure but can you filter the results out and post the EV graph?

Most people will say "low sample size" but I think it's fine.


oh, that's strange, dunno

runner runner top pair is strange, I mean it is something like 2% and you lose like 20% of times.


racenutalways
Joined: 03.07.2008

Here are some hands, I created links as to not take too much room. View at your pleasure. LOL This is how I have lost 37 buy-ins in record time 67000k hands. Note: there are 50 hands for entertainment purposes.
These ten hands are all AA,
Hand 1 Hand 2 Hand 3 Hand 4 Hand 5 Hand 6 Hand 7 Hand 8 Hand 9 Hand 10

Hand 1 Hand 2 Hand 3 Hand 4
SetvsOpr Setvs Opr OPrvs Flush draw Set vs oesd SetvsSet SetVs Flush draw
3 outered 3 outered TPvs flush draw AKsvs 38s 1 outer SetvsFlush draw
Setvs??? TP+Fl draw vs set SetvsSet Bonehead Play SetvsSet Str8 vs runner runner 2 pr vs AA QQvs magic flop QQ vs A8s QQvsA8s Set vs Fl draw QQ vs KT QQvs 52o QQ losing on river QQvsAK QQvsFlDraw

Uploaded with ImageShack.usThis is why my graph looks like this :f_mad:


How much time did you waste collecting, converting all those hands, and how much was that useful for you?


racenutalways
Joined: 03.07.2008

No. it was to get idiots like you to respond dumb answers :evil:


Oh so you were that sad little donkey that started to brag in the chat when I stacked him off with my AA against his JJ preflop.


I'm not sure how your surprised to be against a set that often when you filter only the hands you get it all in on the flop. To get it all in on every top pair would be very dumb. Even getting it all in with two pair might not be the best decision depending on who the player is.

Not saying i'd fold a set at the stakes i play.. But still.. you might (likely) chasing out hands by super agressive play on the flop and leaving only hands your either ahead alot or behind alot. you don't want top pair to fold the flop cause you reraise them with a set and only think about putting all the money in asap with your hand. you want them to keep calling/betting turn/river.


racenutalways
Joined: 03.07.2008

Oh so you were that sad little donkey that started to brag in the chat when I stacked him off with my AA against his JJ preflop.

OOOOOOK puff puff pass _biggrin:

Not saying i'd fold a set at the stakes i play.. But still.. you might (likely) chasing out hands by super agressive play on the flop

Not every flopped set is played the same way. I used a particular situation where the money DOES go allin the flop.

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
[tg]CO$8.43:///////;BU$3.97:///////;SB$4.95:///////;BB$6.39:///////;UTG2$10.59:///////;MP1 (Hero)$4.93:///////;MP2$5.14:///////;MP3$5.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J:s, J:d.
UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $0.17, 2 folds, CO calls $0.17, BU folds, SB calls $0.15, BB folds.

Flop: ($0.56) 6:c, 4:h, J:h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($1.56) 9:s (2 players)
Hero bets $1.56, CO calls $1.56.

River: ($4.68) K:s (2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, CO calls $2.70.

Final Pot: $10.08.
Results follow:

Hero shows three of a kind, jacks(J:s J:d).
CO shows three of a kind, kings(K:h K:d).

CO wins with three of a kind, kings(K:h K:d).


But how much did u win?