[Closed] NL10 SH - TPGK + OESD vs flop raise

Hello Tosh5457,

Well of course it's not a mistake. It's just avoid the "variance". But for the given reason that we need ~40% equity and if we put the opponent on something like this:

Board: Q♣J♥T♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    52.25%  45.09%   7.16% { JJ-TT, AQs, KJs+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AQo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
UTG+1  47.75%  40.59%   7.16% { KdQh }

We still get it, which means that you can even consider going broke but now again it ain't a must. Variance is sometimes bitchy and rather avoiding it ain't a leak. Pretty much a flippy spot anyways.

Best regards.

hi just coming in to see if my view is right..

Well,Assuming he doesnt limp his TT+ from mp3 and doesnt have AK in that range...i think his range to shove on that board could be:

AhXh,KhxH,AQo, two pairs,pairs with K,pairs with 9 , and of course made straights of K-9 and 8-9

Personaly,Im thinking ur behind here most of the time and as Veriz says its up to u if u wanna take the hit.

just my 2c

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Tosh5457,

Well of course it's not a mistake. It's just avoid the "variance". But for the given reason that we need ~40% equity and if we put the opponent on something like this:

Board: Q♣J♥T♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    52.25%  45.09%   7.16% { JJ-TT, AQs, KJs+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AQo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
UTG+1  47.75%  40.59%   7.16% { KdQh }

We still get it, which means that you can even consider going broke but now again it ain't a must. Variance is sometimes bitchy and rather avoiding it ain't a leak. Pretty much a flippy spot anyways.

Best regards.

But since he has a pfr of 16 over 19 hands, can't you take out TT-JJ, KQ, AQ+?

Well, with those stations you can't do that. You have only 19 hands on him.