[Closed] btm set dry flop nl200

Do you have his turn/river aggresion? I think the river move is marginal, we're getting like ~25%. We don't beat anything except a bluff (he'll rarely have TT+ IMO). I'd still call as I'm excluding some pocket pairs because they are weak by just flatting preflop OOP vs LATE.

Don't really get it ,if he ch/r this flop any set and you fold 9x or better it doesn't make sense to ch/r sets on such dry bords. Anyway if he thinks you ain't folding TT+ till the river than he can be rising 99 or 33 but since I doubt he is doing it all the time I think he can easily have 45,some A4/A5 bd fd + gutshot that he can play like this.So still be calling.

i puke and call. Interested to see what coach says. I definately can see an argument for folding and it could very well be possible. This villain though just has such a high WWSF and overall aggression that i'm not so sure that i want to fold my set. Esp. don't fold if you think there is anyway he slowplays QQ+ preflop. Tough hand wow

I am never fodlign vs guy w simmilar aggro stats like I have.
Bad thing is that he is ch/ring 3way so that makes his range a bit stronger but I woudl still discount a lto fo combos of sets so I am "Shipthola" calling

The more I think about it the closer it gets. Guess I slightly prefer folding the R. Sick hand though!

I think it's impossible to tell wether a fold is actually better than a call.

On the flop he might or might not have a bluffingrange, but generally for a thinking opponent it is possible - and if he has he probably plans on firing 3 streets because he knows that we are likely to call overpairs on flop+turn but will most likely fold to a 3rd barrel.

Also I recently had 2 occasions where people actually overcalled AA and KK preflop in a spot like this (instead of squeezing), so I think there are about 1-2 combinations of KK+ in his range.

3 combinations of 54s and 3 of A5s just busted (4 of A4s got there though), he has 99 and 33 in his range (3 combos each) - so 10 valuecombinations and betwen 0 and 8 bluffs or worse valuehands.

At the table I end up calling...

You deffo need to reduce combos of 99 ... I would even completely put it out cause there might be a discount to a 33 as well, so I will jsut put 33 in there

Originally posted by THESHade
You deffo need to reduce combos of 99 ... I would even completely put it out cause there might be a discount to a 33 as well, so I will jsut put 33 in there

You're right, he might squeeze 99 for value.
If BU is a reg he should squeeze 33 as well, otherwise he's calling it almost always imo.

I fold river. I'd say his most likely hand is A4 or 33, while his only bluff i can think of is 54s

wo further reads i puke and call also, hes so polarized. with nittier stats I can def see myself folding though.

actually with A4s beating as well i think i prefer to fold here