Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

$11 DoN bubble call

2 Posts
2 Users
0 Reactions
162 Views
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010
Oldschool Grinder

I'm pretty sure that SnG Wizard wants a fold here.
I thought about this a while:

Here is what I thought:
1. He has to shove fairly wide, but not ATC just yet
2. If I just call, one of the other shorties may jump in
3. Even if I lose this hand, I am still 3rd.
4. My hand is reasonable for an open shove in its own right, since the big dog folded UTG.
5. Oh crap, here we go again...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,290)
BB ($1,820)
UTG ($7,990)
UTG+1 ($1,650)
CO ($2,260)
Hero ($4,990)

Dealt to Hero 8♦ A♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1,650 (AI), fold, Hero calls $1,650, fold, fold

What is the correct play here?

Spoiler

FLOP ($3,750) 9♣ Q♦ 7♥

TURN ($3,750) 9♣ Q♦ 7♥ J♦

RIVER ($3,750) 9♣ Q♦ 7♥ J♦ K♦

UTG+1 shows A♥ 5♥
(Pre 38%, Flop 30.3%, Turn 21.6%)

Hero shows 8♦ A♦
(Pre 62%, Flop 69.7%, Turn 78.4%)

Hero wins $3,750

I sure wish I had Sng Wizard to figure this out on my own...


Reply
Quote
1 reply
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Ok, if you dont have Wizz, use HoldemResources

http://www.holdemresources.net

Here are ranges for this hand:

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=300&sb=150&ante=0&structure=0.2%2C+0.2%2C+0.2%2C+0.2%2C+0.2&s1=7990&s2=1650&s3=2260&s4=4990&s5=1290&s6=1820&s7=&s8=&s9=

Furthermore there is a free program available to download called sngegt (sng endgame tools). If you Google it, you should find it. It should tide you over until you can afford wizz.

The basic idea behind bubble play for 50:50s is this: push wide if you are short and need the chips but call tight.

Well, of course pushing wide and calling tight is the fundamental theory of late stage SnGs. (Really just an extension of Sklansky's gap theorem). But with 50:50s this is even more the case. The "flatter" the payout structure, the less risk you should take on the bubble. 50-50s are the flattest of all SNG structures, because you either cash or you don't and everyone who cashes gets the same, so there's no advantage to cashing as chip leader.

So as a general rule, we don't want to be the one trying to bust the short stack. We let others undertake that role, and we stay out of trouble ourselves.

You can see from the above link that we are well ahead of UTG+1's range here and yet it still correct to fold (our calling range is 3.0%, 99+ AKs).


Reply
Quote
Share: