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overpair facing Turn Raise vs super narrow range

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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008
Oldschool Grinder

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($37.17)
BB ($101)
UTG ($316)
Hero ($110)
BTN ($127) 28/19/BU 3B 7%/ WTSD:32/AF:2.0,1.9,2.2/Fold CBet: 53

Dealt to Hero A♣ A♥

fold, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($10) 8♦ 2♠ K♥

SB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, SB folds

TURN ($24) 8♦ 2♠ K♥ 7♥

Hero bets $18, BTN raises to $58.50, Hero raises to $100 (AI), BTN calls $42.35

RIVER ($225) 8♦ 2♠ K♥ 7♥ 8♥

BB is a fish.
The only hand that makes sense to raise on turn is 87s.

But if raise w sets and 22,88,87s I am crushed. I need 4 combos of Kx to make it profitable.

I am never really sure in this spots where villain's range is super super narrow. Should I count random bluffs and couple of combos of Kx? BEcause here he really only rep 87s which is 2 combos.


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2 replies

we are talking about a fish right? he isn't trying to tell you what he got, he just tells you. correct me if im wrong but that guy looks passive to me. Against passive guys
you can b/f the T even if he is polarized. against idiots we will raise Kx for "protection" jam by all means.


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005
Oldschool Grinder

Agree with 3betforfood, he doesn't look that aggro.
Also I wouldn't exclude 22, 88 and KK from his range - even though it's better to call the turn with them you'll see a lot of regs just raising them.

Considering it was a 3way pot, ranges are strong and in his eyes we're not too likely to be bluffing.
The times we're valuebetting we have at least smth like KQ, so he's unlikely to bluff and I'd therefore b/fold turn.


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