That makes it more interesting, but in the end it's always a guess to go with the odds you get to earn money.
Well, you can check odds from different bookers. Let's say that 90% of bookers estimate TEAM A to win with 60% chance, and one booker estimates it to win 55% chance. Now a site picks it and posts it as a good bet. It's not that their analystics are better, they just see that one booker deviates from the overall line.
Before checking the odds from different bookmakers, I'd recommend identifying 2-3 trusty bookmakers where you're ready to place your bet.
The market is oversaturated with scammy platforms these days.
Indeed. I would only bet on sites that I trust like PokerStars and Unibet for example.
My experience with sports betting has been a mix of excitement and caution. It’s thrilling to engage with various sports and analyze games for potential bets. However, it's crucial to set limits and gamble responsibly, as it can quickly lead to financial losses if not approached carefully.
Originally posted by Enacla
My experience with sports betting has been a mix of excitement and caution. It’s thrilling to engage with various sports and analyze games for potential bets. However, it's crucial to set limits and gamble responsibly, as it can quickly lead to financial losses if not approached carefully.
Indeed, but that's with poker and investing money in something as well the case.
Usually poker is (or might be) +EV, sportsbetting is -EV.
But.
The weird thing is that for major events, which are popular, the odds should be quite realistic for betting. But sometimes when masses start to bet something, markets have to adjust for risk management. Good bettor might find some good odds then. Super Bowl is probably the most wagered single event in the world. And one might think that the lines are very good reflection or reality. I might have been lucky, but for past 3 years my Super Bowl bets have been hits about 85% of times.
Now after I said that, probably this season I will lose all my bets.
Indeed, but you only invest in poker, betting or other investments money you can miss.
Poker is a fast-pace game, sportsbetting is trying to bet on other fast-pace sportsgames, such as soccer, basketball.
A good way to improve your analysis is to break each hand down step by step rather than just focusing on the result. Start with preflop ranges — think about what both you and your opponent can realistically have. Then go street by street, asking yourself how ranges change based on actions and board texture.
It also helps to review hands where you felt uncertain, not just big wins or losses. Try to identify if your decisions were based on solid reasoning or just instinct. If possible, use solvers or tracking software to compare your line with more optimal strategies.
Finally, don’t overcomplicate things — focus on understanding common spots deeply instead of trying to analyze everything at once. Consistency in review is more important than volume.
Originally posted by bellamore
A good way to improve your analysis is to break each hand down step by step rather than just focusing on the result.
Hi bellamore,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com ![]()
btw, this thread is about sports betting, and is nearly a year old.
Why not take a moment to introduce yourself?
Let us know what games you play and so on.
Cheers,
VS
Yeah i once bet 100€ for Real Madrid to win vs unknown club in 2013 and won +40€. Thst is my only experience. Was asking if someone has good experience in sportsbetting.
I am part of a community of professional sports bettors. For bookers, someone estimates the odds for events, based on statistics and models. Not all bookers do their own estimations, they often buy them from one provider. But there are multiple providers, each of them doing the estimations independently. Odds providers have to do analyzis and estimations for MANY different sports, and it would be impossible to have very precise model for each of those. They protect themselves with higher "juice" (the amount that site takes as a fee, sort of a rake) and lower limits for bettors. Professional bettors have their own models, and if they can make better estimations than the odds providers, they will find +EV bets. Let's say I have a model for national ice hockey league, and in my model team A is 53% favorite to win. Booker estimates it to be below 50, and gives odds of 2.0. That is +EV bet on my model, so I place the bet. Just like in poker, if an action is +EV I do it. And in the long run, results should come close to EV. After thousands of bets, I can estimate if my model is working or not. Just like in poker, after longer period of time I can see if my estimations of +EV spots is correct or not.
The closer we are to an even, the closer all odds on different bookers get. In professional betting there is a term CLV, closing line value. Which means that when the even starts, market has corrected the odds to be pretty precise the actual real odds. The further we are from an even, the more spread there might be between bookers. Example, when market opens to a game that is few days ahead, booker A estimates is to be 40-60 and booker B estimates it to be 30-70. Both of them can't be "correct", and market usually shows which one is more incorrect, as that result will get more bets placed to it. Little by little the odds will get closer between bookers, and when the even starts probably both bookers have the same estimation, like 45-55. Professional bettors usually place most of their bets just when the markets open, as the closer the event it the less value there is to be found.
Thanks! I was also wondering if one can find +EV spots to participate in correct events physically. Let's say there's this soccer "legend" who is in really bad shape but boasts with his soccer skills at kids playground to gain attention from women. So let's say I go there with my two sons, all in really good sports shape but we know nothing about soccer. So now we make the gameplay really fast physically because we have better stamina etc, so the "legend" starts to?
I find the whole topic really fascinating, fun and educational, as people form really strong fan communities here around team sport games, such as basketball, volleyball, soccer. Such as: "to my girlfriend it really matters how our son's soccer club performs". But let's say I root for the other team who is more professional, the supporters of son's club can't freaking find then what is going on.
For real money betting, I guess one has to somehow know more about sports than the bookers of the casinos. This I consider impossible at the moment for me. But what if I train running etc and everyone else at that part of town are watching TV and so on. I might have strong edge then at the local elections if I would apply.
Market is really good in reacting to all kinds of variables. The key in professional sports betting is also to react faster than some bookers. Even nowadays, some bookers react to Premier League or NHL lineups 1-2 hours later after they are published. I know there are a lot of bettors who check the lineups when they are published, and make bets if booker hasn't reacted yet to major changes in those lineups.
Another example is in esports, where xR (round wins expectation, same as xGoals in football or hockey) is not a common thing. Bookers base their estimations on results, while professional bettors watch games and estimate xR. Which is a bit better estimation of the power levels of the teams than results. And they can see if a team runs "over EV" or "under EV", which is not shown in booker's odds. If couple of years, AI will calculate xR for esports too, and that edge will disappear.
Yes I've never really taken sportsbetting professionally, normally I am watching a good game and rooting for one team for some personal reasons. Maybe if one watches a certain league often enough, such as NBA or Premier League, they will start to notice patterns that will give them edge in estimating the outcome. I wouldn't mind just watching NBA and practicing basketball for example. I wonder what a bet would do to my life in such scenario. In soccer, after I made the 100€ bet on Real Madrid, it really pulled me towards soccer about 12 years later as a really positive memory. (I am not playing in a team, but I very much enjoy playing "joke soccer" vs kids and beating them with speed, skill etc trying to be a fun example. They always love that.)
Often if I'm watching a game from a team that I cheer for, I place a bet for the opponent. Win-win, either my team wins or I win some money. Without that it would be quite painfull to watch Raiders games....
Is that not American Football? That doesn't look like Ice hockey. Complete different sport.