Cbet success - detailed analysis

    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      In this post I'm analyzing in detail the cbet success % on various board textures, which is my theory objective for the week. Warning: long post. Comments and observations welcome!

      OVERVIEW:



      Cbetting seems to be about equally as successful regardless of preflop action, which is a little surprising. It's quite successful when isolating limpers too.

      ANALYSIS BY HIGH CARD:

      A-high flop:



      As expected the cbet is more successful here than usual, even when isolating limpers (whose limp/call range is sometimes Ax heavy).

      K-high flop:



      Fold equity is about the same. Villains seem to fold quite often after calling my 3bet.

      Q-high flop:



      FE decreases sensibly, particularly in 3bet pots

      J-high flop:



      FE keeps dropping in 3bet pots

      T-, 9-, 8-, 7-, 6-high flops:











      Percentages don't seem to drop below 40%.

      ANALYSIS BY BOARD TEXTURE

      Rainbow flop:



      Two-tone flop:



      Monotone flop:



      As expected I have a bunch of FE on rainbow flops, less on two-tone, which have possible FDs, and a bunch on monotone flops, which I did not expect (I have low sample size though). One explanation for monotone boards might be that those boards look scary and it's hard for villain to call without a card of the right color.

      Flop with no connected cards:



      Flop with connected cards:



      As expected, more FE on unconnected flops

      Paired flop:



      Unpaired flop:



      As expected, more FE on paired flops.

      WORST CASE SCENARIOS

      Flop 2-tone, connected and unpaired:



      Flop 2-tone, connected, unpaired and Q-high:



      Flop 2-tone, T-high:



      CONCLUSIONS

      I confirmed that A- and K-high and paired flops are the ones with the post FE. Monotone flops might be a good spot too, but I need more samples to confirm. On a lesser measure, unconnected flops also have decent FE.

      I assumed that cbet success % would drop below 30 in the worst case scenarios, but it's weird to note how they never seem to drop below 40 pretty much no matter what. Which means that cbetting 100% vs unknown is probably +EV on any board (I did not expect this).

      My flop cbet is 67, I might be able to increase it slightly using these observations since villains seem to fold so often.


      Comments/observations? :)
  • 6 replies
    • PriscoInline
      PriscoInline
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2012 Posts: 326
      I had already noticed that CBets were more succesful on monotone boards, but it is nice to see evidence.
      I always worried that my cbet% was too high (over 70%), but I guess that won't be a problem.
      Good job
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,207
      Hi, outspan...
      I did not read the entire post, so please forgive me if this is mentioned already.

      Does "CBet success" mean that you took it down on the flop?

      Do you make allowances for those flops where you checked behind?

      All-in-all, it looks like a very worthwhile study,

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      @Prisco: ty, yeah I guess I've been missing spots too, but still in some spots checking behind might have even higher EV

      @Vorpal: ty. HEM says it's the "Pct of time player takes down the pot when cbetting the flop" so no it doesn't include c behinds.

      I should note that I'm playing NL10.
    • Lefty85
      Lefty85
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 168
      The fact that your c-bet% is about 67% has probably been picked up by other regs. If you would c-bet a higher % they wouldn't fold that much and therefore it wouldn't be that profitable anymore.

      Unknows tend to be fish and fish doesn't fold that much to c-bets so i wouldn't recommend c-betting 100% on any board.

      Also your flop c-bet succes is quite high, if you move up in stakes that % is going to drop to around 40%.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      "I assumed that cbet success % would drop below 30 in the worst case scenarios, but it's weird to note how they never seem to drop below 40 pretty much no matter what. Which means that cbetting 100% vs unknown is probably +EV on any board (I did not expect this).

      My flop cbet is 67, I might be able to increase it slightly using these observations since villains seem to fold so often."

      You are assuming that people will play the same against you even though you are now cbetting 100%. Maybe at nl10 people won't adjust too much, but its not a good habit to get into. These exercises and cbet of 67% sounds like you are putting thought into your cbetting ranges. If you blindly cbet 100% it will be hard to get this thinking back to being natural.

      Also, remember that you're probably not cbetting the same size on different textures so that factors into the relative FE you have on a given flop.

      EDIT: Dammit, lefty bet me to it haha.
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      I remember myself doing this type of analysis as well.
      However, I understood, that the most efficient way to
      think about F c-bets is to play exploitative.

      Ex.
      You play against calling station. Most likely
      you are not going to bluff him. Maybe strong
      draws, but that's it.
      So your c-bet stat could be around 33%.

      You play against an ABC, fit-or-fold player, who is honest
      and he folds 70% to F c-bets.
      So, you c-bet all Flops and give up whenever he calls
      (with TPgK and worse mostly).
      Because, whenever he calls or raises he is strong.

      And there will be a huge mix of random players. So, it
      averages out.

      Even, if you took TAG based on their preflop stats = VPIP/PFR,
      they would still have different postflop games. Even nits
      do random stuff postflop



      I guess, your analysis might help to play against unknown
      for first hands of the session.

      Also for multi-tablers this can help.