# [NL2-NL10] NL50 AQs

• Bronze
Joined: 02.12.2006
This was interesting for me, I'm starting to try to get a hold of the more advanced plays xarry/gerv-style, and the quick calculation in my mind and a glance at the equity chart told me to make this play, now time to calculate if it was the right move..

Note: I've actually not a clue why I raised this from UTG (1 position earlier than MP1), but I believe I did it because of the CO poster and maaaaaaybe a little tilted. I normally follow the shcs very very strictly..

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: \$0.25/\$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: \$7.75
UTG+1: \$45.85
MP1: \$49.50
MP2: \$20
CO: \$47.35
Button: \$62.85
SB: \$10.80
BB: \$10.75

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to \$2.5, UTG+1 raises to \$6.55, 6 folds, Hero raises all-in \$7.75, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 8 J 9 (\$16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: \$16.25)

Turn: 6 (\$16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: \$16.25)

River: K (\$16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: \$16.25)

Results:
Final pot: \$16.25

Stats of villain: 3bet: 3,5% (1400 hands)

My attempted analysis:
Raise : Stack ratio = 2.50 : 5.25 = 1 : 2.1
Equity needed: 1/3.1 (IMPORTANT is this calculation correct? I will need to win in 1 out of 3.1 times?) =~ 0.323 = 32,3%

Handrange of opponent = 3.47% = TT+, AKo
AQs equity = 34,362% (equilated)

Conclusion: The correct move excluding rake.. but with rake? I don't want to attempt to calculate that since I don't even know how much the rake is.. but it doesn't seem worth it.

EDIT:
Actually I did forget something, the blinds and the poster! Let's try again.
Pot odds = to call : final pot size
= 5.25 : (7.75+7.75+0.50+0.75) = 5.25 : 16.75 =~ 0.31 = 31%

Eh, so basically... do I use the first or the 2nd calculation (I believe it's the 2nd), and is 3% edge large enough to make this play?

TY :>
• 3 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
Hello Fongie,

When playing on NL50, I recommend playing with a HUD + posting your hand with the necessary stats from HEM/PT/Elephant to get an even more accurate view on the situation.
Advanced SSS is based on calculations AND the type of Opponent in the sense of % VPIP/PFR and stuff you are facing. Only 3bet stats isnt enough

So I have reread your post twice and I will make a calculation for myself first and then compare it with yours in the conclusion

Assume getting Reraised all-in
(\$7.75+\$2.5+\$0.75)x0.95(rake) :: \$5.25
11x0.95 : 5.25
10.45:5.25
1.99:1
=
33%~ you need to have in order to be Break-Even

with AQs, against a 3% JJ+,AK+ range you have 32.1% Equity = -EV
against a 4.7% TT+,AQ+ you have 37.8% equity = +EV

His 3bet range is around 3.5% so a tight 3% is realistic so I fold here

Pot odds = to call : final pot size
= 5.25 : (7.75+7.75+0.50+0.75) = 5.25 : 16.75 =~ 0.31 = 31%
It is infact, the Virtual Pot against your remaining stack, you added your remaining stack twice but that isn't in the pot yet!

Looking back at my calculation highlighted in blue, the \$7.75 is the amount your opponent can lose or win. The \$2.5 is your openraise which is in the pot, \$0.75 are the blinds. Multiplier of 0.95 is the rake percentage of 5% and is sometimes very significant when you play <NL200

Conclusion: I fold here in this spot because based on my calculations, you will lose 2 stacks in the long run. Ofcourse with basic SSS, this is an easy push but do not raise AQs from Early Position then

I hope this enlightens you a bit,
Gerv
• Bronze
Joined: 02.12.2006
Hmm, alright. Well actually I don't quite understand your pot calculations... Don't we assume that the opponent calls us? That's why I put 7.75+7.75, which was my stack all in + his call, and then added the dead money for the final pot (="virtual pot"?)

I see I must have misunderstood completely

It would be very helpful if you could type out the formula for me (in words) to determin the break-even equity so I don't make the wrong calculations again ^^
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
Originally posted by Fongie
It would be very helpful if you could type out the formula for me (in words) to determin the break-even equity so I don't make the wrong calculations again
(([Your Openraise amount] + [Your Stack at the start of the hand] + [Blinds+Limpers]))x[rake 5%=x0.95] :: [Your Remaining Stack after you've Raised]