[NL2-NL10] NL50 AQs

    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      This was interesting for me, I'm starting to try to get a hold of the more advanced plays xarry/gerv-style, and the quick calculation in my mind and a glance at the equity chart told me to make this play, now time to calculate if it was the right move..

      Note: I've actually not a clue why I raised this from UTG (1 position earlier than MP1), but I believe I did it because of the CO poster and maaaaaaybe a little tilted. I normally follow the shcs very very strictly..

      Poker Stars
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
      8 players
      Converter

      Stack sizes:
      Hero: $7.75
      UTG+1: $45.85
      MP1: $49.50
      MP2: $20
      CO: $47.35
      Button: $62.85
      SB: $10.80
      BB: $10.75

      Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG with A Q
      Hero raises to $2.5, UTG+1 raises to $6.55, 6 folds, Hero raises all-in $7.75, UTG+1 calls.

      Flop: 8 J 9 ($16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $16.25)


      Turn: 6 ($16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $16.25)


      River: K ($16.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $16.25)


      Results:
      Final pot: $16.25

      Stats of villain: 3bet: 3,5% (1400 hands)

      My attempted analysis:
      Raise : Stack ratio = 2.50 : 5.25 = 1 : 2.1
      Equity needed: 1/3.1 (IMPORTANT is this calculation correct? I will need to win in 1 out of 3.1 times?) =~ 0.323 = 32,3%

      Handrange of opponent = 3.47% = TT+, AKo
      AQs equity = 34,362% (equilated)

      Conclusion: The correct move excluding rake.. but with rake? I don't want to attempt to calculate that since I don't even know how much the rake is.. but it doesn't seem worth it.

      EDIT:
      Actually I did forget something, the blinds and the poster! Let's try again.
      Pot odds = to call : final pot size
      = 5.25 : (7.75+7.75+0.50+0.75) = 5.25 : 16.75 =~ 0.31 = 31%

      Eh, so basically... do I use the first or the 2nd calculation (I believe it's the 2nd), and is 3% edge large enough to make this play?

      TY :>
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Fongie,

      When playing on NL50, I recommend playing with a HUD + posting your hand with the necessary stats from HEM/PT/Elephant to get an even more accurate view on the situation.
      Advanced SSS is based on calculations AND the type of Opponent in the sense of % VPIP/PFR and stuff you are facing. Only 3bet stats isnt enough


      So I have reread your post twice and I will make a calculation for myself first and then compare it with yours in the conclusion :)


      Assume getting Reraised all-in
      ($7.75+$2.5+$0.75)x0.95(rake) :: $5.25
      11x0.95 : 5.25
      10.45:5.25
      1.99:1
      =
      33%~ you need to have in order to be Break-Even

      with AQs, against a 3% JJ+,AK+ range you have 32.1% Equity = -EV
      against a 4.7% TT+,AQ+ you have 37.8% equity = +EV

      His 3bet range is around 3.5% so a tight 3% is realistic so I fold here :)

      Pot odds = to call : final pot size
      = 5.25 : (7.75+7.75+0.50+0.75) = 5.25 : 16.75 =~ 0.31 = 31%
      It is infact, the Virtual Pot against your remaining stack, you added your remaining stack twice but that isn't in the pot yet!

      Looking back at my calculation highlighted in blue, the $7.75 is the amount your opponent can lose or win. The $2.5 is your openraise which is in the pot, $0.75 are the blinds. Multiplier of 0.95 is the rake percentage of 5% and is sometimes very significant when you play <NL200

      Conclusion: I fold here in this spot because based on my calculations, you will lose 2 stacks in the long run. Ofcourse with basic SSS, this is an easy push but do not raise AQs from Early Position then ;)

      I hope this enlightens you a bit,
      Gerv
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Hmm, alright. Well actually I don't quite understand your pot calculations... Don't we assume that the opponent calls us? That's why I put 7.75+7.75, which was my stack all in + his call, and then added the dead money for the final pot (="virtual pot"?)

      I see I must have misunderstood completely :P

      It would be very helpful if you could type out the formula for me (in words) to determin the break-even equity so I don't make the wrong calculations again ^^
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Fongie
      It would be very helpful if you could type out the formula for me (in words) to determin the break-even equity so I don't make the wrong calculations again
      (([Your Openraise amount] + [Your Stack at the start of the hand] + [Blinds+Limpers]))x[rake 5%=x0.95] :: [Your Remaining Stack after you've Raised]