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The Deal

    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      There was a lot of discussion about The Deal promo in the thread "When to open chests..." but I thought it could use its own thread, esp since PokerStars has the "suit race" promo where you can win tickets at no cost.

      I normally only start to play when the Jackpot hits 200,000.00, however since I had free tickets to play, I started playing after the average time between jackpots had passed (16 days).

      This was good, because the jackpot was won after only 1 day.

      Cheers,
      VS
  • 164 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      That’s a nice start for sure, but I had expected the jackpot would increase more thanks to the promo. I don’t think it’s the case so far.
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
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      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 2,270
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      I normally only start to play when the Jackpot hits 200,000.00, however since I had free tickets to play, I started playing after the average time between jackpots had passed (16 days).
      Sounds like a good compromise, but isn't this basically a variation of the gambler's fallacy? If my understanding of The Deal is correct, the likelihood of anyone hitting the jackpot stays the same for every deal, it doesn't increase over time. So it's not like the jackpot is overdue after the average time span has passed.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Correct. The chance of winning the deal is the same on each "hand".
      It is a variation of the risk/reward comparison -- the risk is the same each time, however the reward increases as time goes by.

      I don't care about the jackpot -- yeah, it would be nice but the likelihood of winning is surpassingly small when calculating the EV of playing. The EV of playing is that if anyone wins, then everyone who played in the last 12 hours gets a share. As time goes by, more people play, so the jackpot increases faster, and the chances of it being won increase, thus your EV for each hand increases

      If you play every 12 hours starting at the point the jackpot is won, then your reward in $/coin is v small. If you wait, you don't pay very many coins to win your share.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
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      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 2,270
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      The EV of playing is that if anyone wins, then everyone who played in the last 12 hours gets a share. As time goes by, more people play, so the jackpot increases faster, and the chances of it being won increase, thus your EV for each hand increases.

      If you play every 12 hours starting at the point the jackpot is won, then your reward in $/coin is v small. If you wait, you don't pay very many coins to win your share.
      Yeah, I get that, and I've played using that strategy myself in the past, which resulted in a nice little cash windfall.

      My point was that we should decide when to play The Deal based solely on the size of the jackpot, not on how much time has passed since the last one was taken down, as this seems to be irrelevant.

      You collected a lot of data on this, didn't you? If you know the odds of The Deal itself, can you maybe determine the exact point at which The Deal becomes profitable, using this strategy? Playing at $200K seems to be a bit conservative.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      The jackpot is growing around 10k on a day and when is the time the jackpot is fallen.
      That means it takes around 17 days before the jackpot is from 25k to 200k I guess.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Originally posted by SDK1987
      The jackpot is growing around 10k on a day and when is the time the jackpot is fallen.
      That means it takes around 17 days before the jackpot is from 25k to 200k I guess.
      The average so far has been 16 days exactly. I thought I had bug in my spreadsheet, so I calculated it manually and 16 days exactly.

      Although the size of the jackpot matters, it also matters how many people split the prize.
      In the early days, the number of people who play is relatively small, the jackpot grows slowly, but the prized might be bigger.

      Here is the data table (for best results, make browser as wide as possible):
                      Date    Jackpot     Cost    Earned    $/coin    Days       Plrs  
          2017-08-13 06:35                 114      4.50     0.039                     
          2017-08-30 00:20                  76      3.55     0.047      17             
          2017-09-21 18:23                  32      2.27     0.071      23             
          2017-10-02 19:30                  19      2.19     0.115      11             
          2017-10-25 20:15    275,605      171      4.33     0.025      23      31825  
          2017-11-16 07:25    236,750       26      5.19     0.200      21      22808  
          2017-12-02 04:50    287,860       12      5.41     0.451      16      26604  
          2017-12-18 04:19    211,501        6      4.05     0.675      16      26111  
          2017-12-28 05:38    262,315       43      4.86     0.113      10      26987  
          2017-12-31 03:52     58,187        0                           3             
          2018-01-15 16:40    198,355        0                          16             
          2018-02-04 12:54    229,925       40      2.65     0.066      20      43382  
          2018-02-20 11:32    193,693      0.2      3.06    15.300      16      31649  
        Totals & Averages:    217,132    539.2     42.06     0.078      16    29909.4  


      As you can see, I missed a couple -- but they don't cost anything.
      I'll be starting to play using tickets on March 5th. Based on the average the JP will go on or near March 8, and I have 10 tickets, so whatever I get will be without cost.

      In the early days before I started keeping track, I played every 12 hours, and on one occasion I played two hands each round, so the numbers are a bit skewed.

      As to the odds of the JP being won, assume that it is the odds of hitting a straight flush divided by the number of players ( I have no idea if that is correct) then we need to take into account the number of days it runs.

      I'll think a bit about that.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Here is a graph representing the growth of the jackpot over time.
      The green line represents the jackpot, the blue line is the rate of increase over the sample interval.
      It jumps around a lot because it appears that from time to time, PokerStars bumps the prize pool.
      The horizontal scale is in minutes.

      Note how as the jackpot grows, the rate trend is upward -- the bigger the jackpot, the more people play.

    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      That’s interesting to know, but now we need to wait a while when the jackpot is back on 200k again.
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
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      Joined: 13.10.2017 Posts: 290
      I usually join the hunt about 160-170k jackpot.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Originally posted by CucumbaMan
      I usually join the hunt about 160-170k jackpot.
      In the time I've been keeping track, I only missed two jackpots -- one at 198K (16 days) and one at 58K (3 days)

      Based on overall average jackpot increase per hour (490), 170000 will be reached March 6th[1]

      That is 2 days before the projected winning date based on average number of days between wins, so that seems like a good choice. In the last cycle, I joined the fray at 190,000, and it was won at 192,000

      This time, I'll be entering at about 09:00 Mar 6th [1]

      And of course, we can always dream that we hit the jackpot ourselves!

      As to the odds of winning the jackpot...
      Since we're only playing 7 coin per entry, we need a royal flush. Let's assume also, that all of the winners have been playing 7 starscoin, so a royal flush is needed.[2]

      There are 4 combos of straight flushes out of 2598960 possible combinations of 5 cards. We'll ignore the process of picking the discards. Therefore the chance of winning for 1 person each time is 4/2598960 or 0.00000154
      However based on long term average number of players at the time the jackpot is won (17,500) the chance that one of them wins is that number x the chance for each. Let's assume that that many players play once in each 12 hour period, so double that number each day.

      35,000 x 0.00000154 = 0.054 (surprisingly high)
      So the chance that none of them wins is 0.95

      The chance that no-one wins on Day 2 is the same, so the chance then no-one wins on either day is 0.95 * 0.95
      If we keep going, it appears that the chance of someone winning at some point in the 1st n days reaches 50% on day 12.

      If you alter the numbers so that number of players is only 10,000 on average at the beginning, and grows to that 17,500 average at the end (growing by 1000 per day), then the 50% mark is reached on -- (drumroll please) Day 16

      So from all this it seems like to be on the safe side, it makes sense to start playing around that time -- or a little earlier.

      Best of luck,
      VS
      Disclaimer:
      I am not a mathematician, statistician or any other -ician or -ologist that makes me an authority on this stuff. Also, I just made up the assumptions. If you use different ones, the values vary widely

      [1] -- assuming of course that no one wins it before then.
      [2] -- the odds of getting a straight flush are more than 10x better than the odds of getting a royal flush, so this might seem like its +EV to play with 70 -- however the payout if someone else wins is the same no matter how much you bet, nor how many times you play in the preceding 12 hours.
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
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      Nice analysis! I will definitely consider this! We should make a calendar with the possible jackpot day! :) :f_cool:
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
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      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      If you alter the numbers so that number of players is only 10,000 on average at the beginning, and grows to that 17,500 average at the end (growing by 1000 per day), then the 50% mark is reached on -- (drumroll please) Day 16
      Do we know how large the jackpot would roughly be at this point? It would be easier to join The Deal based on the size of the jackpot, since this number is always clearly visible right in the lobby.

      We only need to make $0.01 for every Stars Coin in order to break even, so we should be able to join much sooner than at $200K.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Using the overall average increase per hour (490), 16 days x 24 hr/day x 490 is 213,000

      but since that is an average, leaving a 2-day cushion, the projected jackpot is 190,000
      Bear in mind that the rate increases as the jackpot gets bigger too -- but all things considered, 190,000 seems reasonable.

      Getting in at that level means I would have only ever missed one -- the one where it was won at 58,000.
      Waiting until 200,000 I would have missed 3.

      So after all that, 190,000 should likely occur on Mar 6, and that is 2 days before the average win date.
      So I'll proceed as follows:
      I will begin when the jackpot reaches 190,000
      or
      When the elapsed time from the previous jackpot reaches 14 days.

      So, March 6 unless the rate really picks up...


      VS
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Well it seems we missed one (or at least I did).
      Using the average overall rate the jackpot went at at approx 10:30 GMT today and was roughly 88000

      Maybe next time...
      VS
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
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      Joined: 13.10.2017 Posts: 290
      Yeah-yeah, I missed it too. Just when we thought that we figured it all out... :f_grin: :f_cool:
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      That’s the risk of waiting. Next time better.
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
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      Did we just miss another one? :f_confused:
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      We did indeed.
      using the overall average per hour increase in the jackpot,
      it appears that the jackpot was approximately 84,000 and was won at approximately 2018-03-05 06:10 Z

      The last two jackpots were won at less than 90,000
      I think I'll start the next round at 100,000 -- makes sense especially since I have a bunch of free play tickes.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
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      Yep, agreed. We should join the party at about 100k.

      Cheers! :f_cool: