[Closed] NL100 R - AK doublestacked

if he is a thinbking player u will fold out most of his range for sure but if he doesnt really think that much u are just burning money IMO cause he would not realize ur range is strong there and he wil jsut look at his JJ and snap-call

A decent player should fold JJ here all the time, but I agree with THESHade; I wouldnt try this vs unknown.

1 Question: at what point did you decide to 3 barrel bluff?
Reason I ask is that I would think you would bet more on turn to achieve more folds on that street?

Or did you deliberately bet 1/2 on turn so that your riverbet would look big in relation to the pot and produce more folds?

If you already decide to shove the river, betting $50 on turn will net you more dead$.

cheers

yes, my second barrel is small so that the river bet looks scary.

he wasn't a total unknown in that he was playing 4 tables (forgot to mention that, so I assume he thinks a bit)

I decided on the flop to 3 barrel it if he remained passive, and fold to action, so I was setting up the sizes.

In general I think it's a good line as he will have a hard time even with QQ - and that is even if he does not think too much (imo), as he will just see he has to call another 130BB and put you on AA every single time.

It seems a bit sick to do this vs an unknown - we risk 200BB only because we saw he 4tables - but imo we can assume his callingrange preflop is fairly wide, at least all PPs, some broadways and some SCs.
On the flop he will call most pairs.
On the turn I think he will still call a decent amount of pairs, so the rivershove is fine imo - as the previous posters said he will fold Tx and even JJ, maybe QQ, most of the time so we have a lot of foldequity.

If you don't want to shove the river I think you should c/f the turn as I expect his callingrange on the turn to be somewhat wide.

like I said I when I bet on the turn I had already decided to shove the river. I guess it was a little bit brave vs unknown.

My next question then is, if he was known, what kind of stats would tell me that this was a good move, and what stats would tell me it's a bad move.
And I don't mean extreme stats. like he has a WTSD of 100%, and lost $200000, and 100/0 vpip/pfr.. What are the more subtle numbers that would indicate a good chance of success or failure with this line (including history)..

Originally posted by WildBeans
My next question then is, if he was known, what kind of stats would tell me that this was a good move, and what stats would tell me it's a bad move.
And I don't mean extreme stats. like he has a WTSD of 100%, and lost $200000, and 100/0 vpip/pfr.. What are the more subtle numbers that would indicate a good chance of success or failure with this line (including history)..

Imo this is pretty much impossible to say.
A 19/16 with 24 WTSD can make good calls and a 25/21 with 20 WTSD can make bad calls.
In general when you make a play like this, it shouldn't be because of the stats.
This is spot-dependant - we have a good spot in which most regs should be able to find a fold, so we're going for it.

Of course if he has a high WTSD this can be discouraging, but unless it's somewhere up in the 27%+ are I wouldn't mind it too much (in fact vs regs I maybe used this stat like twice during the last 2 months).