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[Closed] NL100 Set on flop, third flush on river

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Pizzacat
Joined: 07.08.2009

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players

Stacks:
UTG TitFed219 ($193.35)
UTG+1 Bruko ($76.05)
MP1 Jacquot_777 ($151.25)
MP2 mattard73 ($132.35)
MP3 shuffleupagus1 ($100.30)
CO mexx1234 ($102.75)
BTN IGARAN ($41)
SB Hero ($106.40)
BB SkyDrive20 ($73.20)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 9 players) Hero is SB 10:diamond: 10:club:
3 folds, mattard73 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, IGARAN calls $3.50, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: 10:heart: A♣ 2♣ ($11.50, 3 players)
Hero checks, mattard73 bets $7, IGARAN folds, Hero raises to $22, mattard73 calls $15

Turn: J♣ ($55.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $38, mattard73 calls $38

River: 5♣ ($131.50, 2 players)
Hero ???

Villain is 22/13 w AF of 2.7 over 1.5k hands


3 replies
Snodreliss
Joined: 23.12.2007

check/fold

Blockbetting river dossen't give u anyting, as he will call with better hands and fold worse.


Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

c/f or c/c. But I'd c/f.

He's rarely calling the turn without a club and he's almost always having a bigger club than T. Also on turn you could easily be beat already. If he had a small flush on turn, he's going to check it behind.

btw, I've got zero hands on that guy. Maybe I should up my volume a bit? :f_eek:


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd make it 26 on the flop. He does probably not fold Ax anyway.

On the turn I don't like to c/f because the only hands that beat us are K :club:Q :club: and maybe 9 :club:8 :club:. Since the J :club: is on the board and the T :club: is in our hand there's no other broadway-flush left.

I doubt he has any more flushcombos in his range (maybe 1 or 2 more) given the PFR of 13% (maybe I'm off here since those are FR stats?).

So I'd bet the turn for value as well.

On the river I'd shove. We only have 40 left so I don't want to c/f in this big pot. C/c is not really a good play since he's probably not bluffing but we can't really fold because of the pot odds.

Additionally the A :club: is on the board so the opponent can't have the nutflush, BUT there is AA left that wanted to slowplay on the flop so we might (unlilely but possible) get some thin value vs those.