[Closed] NL100 River shove with busted draw in 3-bet pot

IMO you need to bet less on the flop and turn to set up a river shove that will have fold equity, as played I doubt he would fold AJ on the river given the odds he is getting.

In my opoinion you played it fine.

Yes it's true that he gets good odds on the turn, but as you say he would shove hands that he's happy about. So unless he has something like QsdTs that he's slowplaying I think you can get him to fold quite some hands.
IMO his most likely holding is something like TT or T9/JT that he expects to be the worst hand but has equity.

If you don't bet the river I think you should consider checking the turn, if he bets big we might even have to c/f - we only have 12 outs (9 spades + 3 aces) so we need roughly 3:1 odds.
Imo we don't have foldequity by checkraising the turn since he's not folding something like JT there.

Having said that I still prefer the bet turn - shove river line because I think he will fold quite some hands to our rivershove.

@peche
By betting less on flop and turn we can not represent a strong hand. After all with JJ+ we'd bet big as well because we'd want to protect against the possible draws.

I c/c turn (he checks behind with Jx and calls your 2nd barrel so you are just burning money vs his SD value hands, whereas if he is on air, or lower FD you are either still ahead or at least have good equity. problem with second barrel turn also is that I don´t like being raised on turn) and as played I c/f river

even if he has JT he does not fold to your river shove as you have many busted draws and are only representing overpair + he has good odds. He does not give you credit 3-way

= totally misplayed imo

...

Originally posted by Cornie4ever
I c/c turn (he checks behind with Jx and calls your 2nd barrel so you are just burning money vs his SD value hands, whereas if he is on air, or lower FD you are either still ahead or at least have good equity. problem with second barrel turn also is that I don´t like being raised on turn) and as played I c/f river

even if he has JT he does not fold to your river shove as you have many busted draws and are only representing overpair + he has good odds. He does not give you credit 3-way

= totally misplayed imo

...

The problem I see with the check-call is that we don't get the odds to if he makes any decent sized bet.

You can also turn your argument the other way: By betting we have some foldequity, he will not fold Jx hands but he most likely doesn't fold them either. If we think he doesn't fold them by the river we c/f unimproved (not too bad of a result as we had some foldequity on the turn) but shove a spade river, and if we think he does fold them we can just shove any river and take down an even bigger pot.

Btw we can also bluff on any T.

yy, I see your reasons. The only thing is I play a little differently (maybe influenced by higher limits, I play mostly nl400rush currently). All the underlying idea behind that is:

1) I don' t mind checking or c/c a lot of hands (e.g. Patrick Antonius frequently uses the line where he opens AA OOP and c/c 3xstreets on board like J93, even if there is a FD.). The point is people tend to bluff and push if they see the weakness. You can win a lot by using c/c lines well. They usually bet themselves after your check so you extract the same value as if you bet and they call + (i) they have much worse range (betting/bluffing range way weaker than calling range) + (ii) you don' t risk being raised after you bet (if they have a monster). OFC there are spots where you need to bet a lot for value, even overbet etc.

2) additional reason is that if you check and they have some SD value (like Jx in hand above), you save money because they check behind for pot control very often, whereas they would have called your bet.

3) this leads me to the read on turn where typically check behind on turn = either mediocre SD value or nothing. Bet turn = draw, air or monster. You can use this read for river play (even overbet scary card on river, give up, check/call as a bluffcatcher). etc

These plays open many interesting considerations and lines. I started using these lines in January and I am +14.4k on nl200 and nl400 so far this month. It really works well.

going back to the hand, my key points here are
1) you don' t want to be raised on turn and forced to shove with small equity
2) he mostly checks behind his SD value
3) if he bets he is polarized. If he has monster (2 pair), you would have the money in even with your bet on turn and if he has draw, air you are still ahead and get more money from his air range. You still have equity to improve to nuts flush.

etc. hope I expressed clearly what I' m trying to say

Yep I got it. I don't use those c/c lines a lot, but I should probably do it from time to time.

The only problem I see is when you play against observing players: you weaken your bettingrange even more - we only hit 1/3 of the time so when we c/c strong hands sometimes we cannot bet as much air anymore. Of course the opponent has to be somewhat decent for this to matter.

But in general I agree with you.

Nice brag btw ♦

Originally posted by Bierbaer @peche By betting less on flop and turn we can not represent a strong hand. After all with JJ+ we'd bet big as well because we'd want to protect against the possible draws.

Don't agree, I'm not ever cbetting 12 into 17 since it doesn't set up the stack sizes properly to achieve anything. If I want to only play flop and turn I'll bet big enough to have less than 1,2x pot on turn to shove or if I want to triple barrel I'll bet ~half pot on flop and turn to be capable of triple barreling effectively.

Also I'm never worried with an overpair in this spot that I can't get money in vs. draws. Any even slightly aggro villain will anyway raise draws on flop/turn to have some FE.

The c/c approach is interesting but we also give a cheap showdown to hands like T9 that would usually call turn, fold river. Also unless we improve we're folding the best hand on river if villain is bluffing with air (which prly isn't that big of a concern in this spot because rare people tend to float these flops with pure air).

Not a big fan of c/cing turn in this spot even though I do see some merit for it.

1) I don' t mind checking or c/c a lot of hands (e.g. Patrick Antonius frequently uses the line where he opens AA OOP and c/c 3xstreets on board like J93, even if there is a FD.). The point is people tend to bluff and push if they see the weakness. You can win a lot by using c/c lines well. They usually bet themselves after your check so you extract the same value as if you bet and they call + (i) they have much worse range (betting/bluffing range way weaker than calling range) + (ii) you don' t risk being raised after you bet (if they have a monster). OFC there are spots where you need to bet a lot for value, even overbet etc.

that c/cing AA on those draw heavy textures is definitely ok but you'll get yourself into a lot of tough spots vs. good villains when they start overbetting on rivers. It's pretty damn tough for you to know what the best play is on J93ss, xo, yo if villain has busted draw/set/2pair when he shoves for 1,5-2x pot on river.

These plays open many interesting considerations and lines. I started using these lines in January and I am +14.4k on nl200 and nl400 so far this month. It really works well.

Yea, it must be only because of these lines... Good if it's working for you though, at least you gave something to think about even if I don't agree in this spot.

My thoughts (clearly the least Qualified to comment):

It seems that with the betsizing, we can sacrifice river feQ by betting bigger on flop and turn since - with a draw - our best outcome is villain folding before the river and (on average) the bigger we bet flop+turn, the more villain will fold by the turn. (Our worst outcome is having to shove the river when we miss)

When we flop a set in a 3b pot, we almost always take the 1/2, 1/2, 1/2 pot line becuase we want villain to call 3 streets and and dont care about feQ at any point.

On this board I think we very often play our overpairs fast because the board is so draw heavy, so the bigger bets are still consistent with our having a strong hand (not just a draw that is trying to get folds).

Originally posted by Shevtshenko

Originally posted by Bierbaer @peche By betting less on flop and turn we can not represent a strong hand. After all with JJ+ we'd bet big as well because we'd want to protect against the possible draws.

Don't agree, I'm not ever cbetting 12 into 17 since it doesn't set up the stack sizes properly to achieve anything. If I want to only play flop and turn I'll bet big enough to have less than 1,2x pot on turn to shove or if I want to triple barrel I'll bet ~half pot on flop and turn to be capable of triple barreling effectively.

Generally I agree with your betsizing strategy for 3barreling (1/2-1/2-1/2), I just think this is a board on which I'd basically never 3barrel with air (unless I have specific reads) because it hits the opponents range so well.

And if I have a valuehand I'd bet big to get value&protect.

Of course you can argue that once the opponent just calls on a board like this he most likely has some kind of weak Jx or even 9x, but I think he will either shove or fold those by the turn, so I'd generally fire a maximum of 2 barrels.

Btw if we have only 1/2 pot left on the river it sometimes gives us the same amount of foldequity as if we had more money left because the opponent will think it's sooo much more unlikely we're ever bluffing in this spot since he's getting so good odds.