Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($154)
BB ($80.25)
Hero ($104)
UTG+1 ($101)
CO ($227)
BTN ($45)
Dealt to Hero Q♣ J♦
Hero raises to $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $2.50
FLOP ($11) J♣ Q♥ 7♥
BB bets $11, Hero raises to $22, UTG+1 folds, BB calls $11
TURN ($55) J♣ Q♥ 7♥ 4♣
BB checks, Hero bets $27.50, BB calls $27.50
RIVER ($110) J♣ Q♥ 7♥ 4♣ 5♥
BB bets $27.25 (AI), Hero calls $27.25
unknown MS in blinds hence loose pfr. called by good 23/19/3 reg in MP.
What is our best plan on flop?
We have to raise I think given drawy board. My raise size doesnt achieve much as villain gets 4:1. However, a potsize raise at this point would be to $44 and I guess villain is already comitted when he calls (so hes not calling so widely). Maybe we should raise to $30?
On this "safe" turn whats our for Max EV line? Unk villains range is s/th like {77, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-AJo, KQo, KTo, QJo}, against which we have like 80% eQ.
So we can either jam or bet around 1/2p where villain still makes a mistake by calling but then we do have some difficult river decisions. If we try to max EV by bet 1/2p on turn against wider range must we always call the river (without reads) even though one of the draws gets there? (getting 5:1)
thx