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[Closed] nl100 Rush QJo

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($154)
BB ($80.25)
Hero ($104)
UTG+1 ($101)
CO ($227)
BTN ($45)

Dealt to Hero Q♣ J♦

Hero raises to $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $2.50

FLOP ($11) J♣ Q♥ 7♥

BB bets $11, Hero raises to $22, UTG+1 folds, BB calls $11

TURN ($55) J♣ Q♥ 7♥ 4♣

BB checks, Hero bets $27.50, BB calls $27.50

RIVER ($110) J♣ Q♥ 7♥ 4♣ 5♥

BB bets $27.25 (AI), Hero calls $27.25

unknown MS in blinds hence loose pfr. called by good 23/19/3 reg in MP.
What is our best plan on flop?

We have to raise I think given drawy board. My raise size doesnt achieve much as villain gets 4:1. However, a potsize raise at this point would be to $44 and I guess villain is already comitted when he calls (so hes not calling so widely). Maybe we should raise to $30?

On this "safe" turn whats our for Max EV line? Unk villains range is s/th like {77, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-AJo, KQo, KTo, QJo}, against which we have like 80% eQ.

So we can either jam or bet around 1/2p where villain still makes a mistake by calling but then we do have some difficult river decisions. If we try to max EV by bet 1/2p on turn against wider range must we always call the river (without reads) even though one of the draws gets there? (getting 5:1)

thx


3 replies
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd fold preflop.
You shouldn't be raising loose against unknows because you can not exploit them as much - you need reads to make marginal plays.
And in this scenario there's even a good reg to your left who will exploit loose openraises.

As played I'd raise to $34-$36 on the flop so we can ship it in on the turn - there are a ton of draws on the board, the minraise gives him great odds obviously.
Also with a bigger raisesize we can get all in by the turn.

As played I'd definitely ship it on the turn, with most draws he has something like 12 outs so he almost makes a mistake by just folding them (not quite, but we're ok with him folding).


Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks, I agree with almost everything here. Only question is about BB's range.

You are putting a lot of of draws there which will be more or less priced in to call a turn shove. But doesnt villain have many other Jx Qx and also, maybe 7x hands which cant call the shove but also are unlikely to draw out?

(Villain had Ts7s here - ??? - so prolly I am overinfluenced by this but wondering if we loose too much value by shoving turn)

thnx.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

He probably does, but I think the Jx will fold in any case and with the Qx he is somewhat likely to call anyway.

If we knew that he can show up with T7 when we make it that small, I think the smaller bets are ok (of course we will never know this if we always make it bigger).
But 99.5% of opponents will just fold this on the flop, so I think on average the bigger bets are better to maximize value.

Edit: And since he's willing to get AI with the T7 I'm not so sure if he wouldn't just call a turnshove with Jx anyway.