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[Closed] nl100 Rush 78o bu ip vs fish

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($89.40)
BB ($141)
UTG ($137)
UTG+1 ($38.75)
CO ($117)
Hero ($103)

Dealt to Hero 7♠ 8♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.50, SB calls $2, fold

FLOP ($6) T♦ J♠ 5♦

SB bets $3, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $9

TURN ($30) T♦ J♠ 5♦ 4♥

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($30) T♦ J♠ 5♦ 4♥ 3♥

SB bets $10, Hero raises to $35...

villain 41/19/4 wts 26, 750hands. Fishy. Donkbet 28%
Given number of draws on this flop and fact villain just calls our flop raise, checks turn and minbets river 1/3, can we put him on a weak enough range to bluff raise the river?

On the flop, should we just fold to the donk since we never have the best hand and have nearly 0 eQuity?

thx


3 replies
Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

if you want to raise this flop, certainly barrel this Turncard, you have a double gutter versus Tx, Jx etc.

Also you have to be prepared to 3barrelbluff this often as his folding% mostly goes on the River in my opinion.

Because checking back Turn makes him shrug his shoulder and can even herocall you on the River with Tx but for sure with Jx


Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yeah, I agree. Turn barrel looks good - didnt see that I picked up equity on the turn :rolleyes:


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

On this board I'd even consider to just fold the flop. We don't get him to fold many hands when he's leading on a drawy board like this.
Of course we might get to fold some Tx or Jx at some point in the hand, but after all he's a fish and we have 8high, so we're ok with giving up a pot once in a while.

However, if you raise I think you're committed to firing several barrels (as long as the FD doesnt get there) to get him to fold those Tx and Jx.

As played once he bets that small on the river I'd also try to bluff him, generally small bets are weak and the raise has to work less than 50% of the time to be profitable.