[Closed] NL 100 QJs

I'm currently thinking about checking the flop. In case we're called by the reg we'll have 50% or less equity on any 8+ card (except Q or J) so our playability sucks.

As played on the turn we have 50% against a range of {99+,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo,KQo,AdKd,AhKh,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h}:

Board: Q♥J♥9♦ A♦
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.54% 48.84% 1.69% { 99+, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo, KQo, AdKd, AhKh, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h }
MP3 49.46% 47.77% 1.69% { QsJs }

But he's gonna fold some KQ/QJ/TT type hands imo, in this case our equity decreases to something like 36%.
So I'd consider checking again.

It's so close on the flop because we can go for value vs the fish that I'd probably still bet, but I'd make it $9 or even 10 for value against his draws.

But as played against his range I don't think we can bet profitably, so I'd either c/c or c/f - the c/f is probably even the best play because we can hardly play on the river and it's pretty much a 0EV call on the turn anyway.

Originally posted by z1pz0r
EDIT:
Did some heavy thinking while i was at the gym
I should bet river sth like 15. TT folds and AQ calls. How awesome is that?

Edit: Did some thinking as well. I guess you weren't serious ♦

Do you really think a reg with only 2% gap between PFR and VP calls stuff like
99+,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo,KQo,AdKd,AhKh,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h?

I actually think he folds most of these hands. Like ATs, KTs, QTs, 56-89s ... Especially to UTG oR.
I also know he's not slowplaying sets on this board like ever.

Or should I just ignore those irrelevant call open HEM stats and gap between PFR and VP?

No, ignoring them completely is probably not a good idea, after all the information is available to us so we can and should use it.

But I doubt his callingrange in this spot is really only 2% (his call MP open is even 7%). With something like a fish behind him he might easily call more hands.
We can exclude some KTs and SC type of hands, but I think he will have at least something like this by the turn:
{99+,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo,AdKd,AhKh}.

Against this range we have even less equity:

Board: J♦Q♥9♥ A♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    44.29%  43.01%   1.28% { QsJs }
MP3    55.71%  54.43%   1.28% { 99+, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo, AdKd, AhKh }

So we're still doing ok equitywise, but we cannot continue on any rivercard (can't bet for value as he's not calling many worse hands, even a blockbet is probably not possible against his range).