iPoker - £1 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BTN: £128.40
SB: £90.00
Hero (BB): £105.95
UTG: £104.50
MP: £100.00 VP:20/PT:16/WTSD:29/CBet(f,T):61,50
CO: £91.40 VP:50/PR:0 in 50 hands
SB posts SB £0.50, Hero posts BB £1.00
Pre Flop: (£1.50) Hero has 6♥ 8♥
fold, MP raises to £3.50, CO calls £3.50, fold, SB calls £3.00, Hero calls £2.50
Flop: (£14.00, 4 players) A♠ 9♦ 7♥
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets £10.00, CO calls £10.00, fold, Hero calls £10.00
Turn: (£44.00, 3 players) J♥
Hero checks, MP bets £29.00, CO calls £29.00, Hero raises to £92.45
Pre Flop:
In 4 way I think 68s is good.
Flop:
I have 8 clean outs with my OESD which give me 20% equity.
I have to call 10 to win 34 so 22%.
I have almost direct odds to call + 3 way + backdoor FD + SD is well disguised
I think up to the turn it is fine.
Turn
I pick up my FD which I think should give me clean outs.
My question here is C/C or C/R AI as played?
#1 C/C:
I have to pay 29 to win 102 so 22% pot odds.
Board: As9d7h Jh
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 24.669 % 23.280 % 2.827 % 73.892 % 8h6h
Player 2: 37.665 % 33.027 % 9.325 % 57.647 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o
Player 3: 37.665 % 33.027 % 9.325 % 57.647 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o
So again I have direct odds to call.
#2 C/R AI:
The idea behind it is that I look very very strong and I believe I should make fold all AK,AQ,AJ from MP against which I have 31% equity.
BUT I am not sure about CO. He looks like fishy so I don't know if he will fold many hands that he call turn with. So I'm not so sure if I have decent FE.
Even if he calls with 2 pairs,sets and 8T I have 28% equity and I put 77 to win 150 pot i.e 34%. So even if he calls I am not in a bad shape.
Board: As9d7h Jh
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 28.848 % 28.309 % 1.077 % 70.614 % 8h6h
Player 2: 71.152 % 70.614 % 1.077 % 28.309 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, 97s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o, 97o
Conclusion: If Co is not a fish I think the shove is +EV move, with the fish in maybe just a call.
I have tried to do a decent analysis, feel free to destroy it!