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[Closed] 3 way Turn C/R w OESFD

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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

iPoker - £1 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: £128.40
SB: £90.00
Hero (BB): £105.95
UTG: £104.50
MP: £100.00 VP:20/PT:16/WTSD:29/CBet(f,T):61,50
CO: £91.40 VP:50/PR:0 in 50 hands

SB posts SB £0.50, Hero posts BB £1.00

Pre Flop: (£1.50) Hero has 6♥ 8♥

fold, MP raises to £3.50, CO calls £3.50, fold, SB calls £3.00, Hero calls £2.50

Flop: (£14.00, 4 players) A♠ 9♦ 7♥
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets £10.00, CO calls £10.00, fold, Hero calls £10.00

Turn: (£44.00, 3 players) J♥
Hero checks, MP bets £29.00, CO calls £29.00, Hero raises to £92.45

Pre Flop:
In 4 way I think 68s is good.

Flop:
I have 8 clean outs with my OESD which give me 20% equity.
I have to call 10 to win 34 so 22%.
I have almost direct odds to call + 3 way + backdoor FD + SD is well disguised

I think up to the turn it is fine.

Turn
I pick up my FD which I think should give me clean outs.

My question here is C/C or C/R AI as played?

#1 C/C:
I have to pay 29 to win 102 so 22% pot odds.

Board: As9d7h Jh
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 24.669 % 23.280 % 2.827 % 73.892 % 8h6h
Player 2: 37.665 % 33.027 % 9.325 % 57.647 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o
Player 3: 37.665 % 33.027 % 9.325 % 57.647 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o

So again I have direct odds to call.

#2 C/R AI:

The idea behind it is that I look very very strong and I believe I should make fold all AK,AQ,AJ from MP against which I have 31% equity.

BUT I am not sure about CO. He looks like fishy so I don't know if he will fold many hands that he call turn with. So I'm not so sure if I have decent FE.
Even if he calls with 2 pairs,sets and 8T I have 28% equity and I put 77 to win 150 pot i.e 34%. So even if he calls I am not in a bad shape.

Board: As9d7h Jh
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 28.848 % 28.309 % 1.077 % 70.614 % 8h6h
Player 2: 71.152 % 70.614 % 1.077 % 28.309 % AA, 99, 77, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, 97s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o, 97o

Conclusion: If Co is not a fish I think the shove is +EV move, with the fish in maybe just a call.

I have tried to do a decent analysis, feel free to destroy it!


6 replies
getdotacom
Joined: 06.04.2008

Tough spot, I could even fold because we don't know which cards are good - fishier player could have T8, they both could have A :heart:9 :heart:, I think all 3 plays are possible.


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

not the simplest of spots. but raising here is at best a semi bluff w/o FE with two players already investing 40% of their stack. fish may not be strong but flop aggressor is definitely strong as this flop hits our calling range pretty hard and turn improves our perceived range. since we our fd/straight isnt to the nuts, and we can never be sure to get value if we hit esp OOP, i'm neither calling/raising but folding this.


Dublimax Topic starter
Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Originally posted by supeyrio
since we our fd/straight isnt to the nuts, and we can never be sure to get value if we hit esp OOP, i'm neither calling/raising but folding this.

Then we have to question the call pre flop. Because we can not dream of better board than this on the turn.

But you and getdotacom made a good point that the FD isn't the nuts one and Villain can have AhKh or AhQh for example. But this is only 2 combos and doesn't really change our equity:

Board: As9d7h Jh
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 23.553 % 22.205 % 2.741 % 75.053 % 8h6h
Player 2: 38.223 % 33.917 % 8.658 % 57.425 % AA, 99, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o
Player 3: 38.223 % 33.917 % 8.658 % 57.425 % AA, 99, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, A9s, A7s, T8s, AJo, A9o, A7o, T8o

So I think we still have the right odds to call at least on Turn.


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

@dublin: for sure, for call we do have the direct odds. lets say we call and hit a T/5/ hearts. i assume u are just shoving? yea, so i dont think i'm raising there, but calling.


getdotacom
Joined: 06.04.2008

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by supeyrio
since we our fd/straight isnt to the nuts, and we can never be sure to get value if we hit esp OOP, i'm neither calling/raising but folding this.

Then we have to question the call pre flop. Because we can not dream of better board than this on the turn.

We're calling pre in hope to win big pot vs AA or other big hands. This time we're vs 2 players and our hand is no good anymore, so we fold. Looks like MP is betting to protect 2pair or set and CO is calling with strong draw, it would be hard to call here even with 2pair in his spot and vs their both ranges we're drawing almost dead.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Fold preflop imo.

@getdotacom
The problem is, we will never win a big pot vs AA unless he hits top set and we somehow make a disguised straight.
When we get aggro in a 4way pot it will always look extremely strong, nobody is stacking off with an overpair.

Generally the problem is, that we will only get action postflop if we're up against a) a strong made hand or b) a better FD.
Usually when 2 or more opponents decide to put in more money on the flop it means we're up against a made hand and a FD in which case we're crushed.

As played c/calling the flop is an option, but I'd consider checkraising because we can represent a set very well and should therefore have foldequity vs Ax - if called, my plan is to shove the turn.

As played on the turn I agree that if CO is likely to call (i.e. a fish) it's better to c/c for odds and outs, otherwise a c/shove looks nice to me.


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