[Closed] AQ river line

Hi!

First I think betting is clearly better than checking.Your hand is way too strong and there are still ton of worse hands which will call.Also you dont really get to induce all that much by c/c on such board.

Then I think would b/f. We dont really have any special read on him but he certainly is overly passive I really doubt he plays any worse made hand this way...so I would guess we only beat bluffs which may occationaly be there.But such passive player will very very very often take this line with 8x,Kx so his range is filled with these when he raises river.We are getting 1:8 and I dont think he holds a bluff that often considering he defends any 8x,Kx preflop and probably plays them all the same postlop.

I would not be folding Kx+ though since then we already may be beating/splitting some valueraising hands and imo its enough to make this exploitable

I also definitely bet the river here. I tend to pay off to a raise and I wish i could find a way to get a grip on when a bet/fold in these spots is best... but in truth I'm not that strong at evaluating when to make a big lay down and its probably a big leak for me.

As dawnfall mentioned this does not seem like the kind of board where we tend to induce bluffs. The diamond draw came in, and he won't have many turn peels that have very little showdown value. Often times i expect to see pocket pairs, sometimes 7x like A7, and sometimes just a decent A-high which decides to make a loose river call. Rarely we'll see Kx and sometimes we'll just get called by a slowplaying 8 thats now scared.

It seems like a pretty good example of a negative free roll situation for you to check here, but I really think we're ahead against his turn calling range. Whether or not we have an edge against his range to continue vs our bet is perhaps a tougher question, but I think it costs us a lot more to check the river than to bet it.

I have a concept for you to think about... Lets say the pot is 8 bets on the river. You can check/call profitably against his betting range getting 9:1 with 15% equity OR you can bet with 25% equity against his calling range (suppose he often will not raise on that board).

Which is the better option? Betting with 25% equity or check/calling with 15% equity? The answer is quite obvious right? This is how I like to conceptualize a block bet in LHE. Even though our river bet is not +EV in a vacuum, it can be the best play because our opponent will check back hands we beat AND there's value in the pot.

edit: I was taking a poop and I realized that I forgot one thing... He doesn't always bet, and doesn't always call. If we assume 100% equity against his river check back range and that he folds to our bet and checks back the river equally often then the way I've stated things will work. As these probabilities change the situation becomes less clear...

nevertheless in a situation like this one it can be quite profitable to bet the river with less than 50% equity against his calling range.

yes ♦