[Closed] Q9o turn and river

Hi!

Interesting one.This turncard is probably one of the worst for you and I would not bet it.I doubt many better hands will fold(maybe K2,K3 if it even calls flop?!?) since they all improved to at least guthsot and they have SDvalue.You can also expect to get raised on it a decent portion of time as well which is nothing you really want as you are not able to fold.

So my line would be c/c and then c/f river.This way we are still making good call due to up to 10 outs and possibly best hand.Also when you check it may discourage him to bet as he puts you on some SDbound hand and will check some better hands behind (like A/K high).
And I would also be thinking about balancing it.I would c/c Ax here for sure as I dont see much point in betting when I expect to get bluffraised often and card is not really good for us...So I do have hands which will c/calldown
And also I think its a very good spot to make some c/raises for value against good thinking player who will know this is bad card for you and will vbet it.Also you punnish his thin valuebetting so you dont always have Ax in such spot.

Other valid option 3barrell here to make him fold Kx and possibly Ax and even if he folds something worse its never bad but I think he doesnt really have worse hands that often as they would most likely raise at some point. I preffer c/c though.

As played I dont like betting river.His turn checkback is maybe 4x,some Ax,Kx and he never folds a pair here.Also I really doubt he folds Kx as this A on the river is kindda good card for him and he beats any other airball which due to you being SB is kindda very likely.Also I think Kx are not that big part of his range(good Kx would 3bet preflop probably and weal Kx dont call flop(so only maybe K5-K7 are reasonble).

Wouldnt mind some other opinion on this one.

if we bluff its to get him off Kx that did peel and QT? also, I wouldn't expect him to check the turn with a made hand...

we probably can't put him on enough air that will bluff to justify a check/call especially because weak Ax makes up a lot of his range.

I'm going to say bluff bet or check/fold... but I expect that the more you think about this hand the closer it gets and can go back and forth quite a bit.

It seems like around 60 combos of hands that fold... and like 80 combos of Ax... and not a whole lot more made hands because I suspect he'll bet bet the turn lots and lots.

So yeah, bluffing here seems pretty profitable. I'm not sure if I would have played it that way at game speed.

our bluff has to work 25% of the time which is quite high. He has decent amount of Ax,some 4x and some Kx(which imo dont fold here,at least I would not fold them because this A on the river is just such lol bluffcard even though it perfectly fits your range but it still makes it Ax or air polarisation)

If we bet we may get QT,some combos of Kx(lets say K2,K3,K5) to fold and sometimes(but rarelly) we prevent from getting bluffed by worse hand. I think this is no even close to 25% needed.If we decided to bluff here then Im much much more inclined to just bet turn as it makes much more sense.

I agree taht some K-high should show down here...

but 25% is villains WTSD correct?... how big is the sample? if its big enough (say 300-400 hands) I think this alone suggests quite strongly that he won't be calling down K-high.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26If we decided to bluff here then Im much much more inclined to just bet turn as it makes much more sense.

sure, bluffing the river now looks very suspicious since we're only representing Ax and that produces a very narrow value range. Chances are if we had a flush draw we would have bet the turn.

I can't think of many better cards for us to represent, and so this lands right at the top of a short list. If we aren't bluffing here, then we're basically only wining the times we hit and hold up.

Its a funny thing to say "if we're going to bluff I'd rather have bet the turn" because we could barrel this river and that would be ok... but as you've mentioned checking the turn is a good plan.

On the other hand, if we really are giving up on our opportunity to win the pot unimproved then we may need to re-evaluate this plan.

1.his WTSD is quite irrelavant here since:a)its just 60 hands and its practically almost random number b) it doesnt tell anything about this spot...this is imo typical problem of player who depend too much on stats

2.the hands we represent here...I would c/c 4x,small pockets,Ahigh,Khigh and my range will be balanced...as I will check these on the river and play them as bluffcatchers(would donk Ax though) ,I would also give up trash here and sometimes bluff these(when checks back on turn) on the river on nice cards like this to make him fold everything up to Qhigh and just to be able to make vbets with Ahigh(not allowing them to exploitably fold worse hands)...hand like 32s would be perfect for this.

3.We are sometimes winning here with best hand.Sure that is quite unlikely due to very bad turncard but our hand still has SDvalue(we beat floats,something like 35s with BDFD or just some passively played FD,maybe even worse Qhigh)

4.why I dont like bluffing too much on this turn I already explained...we wont get him to fold much and we can expect c/r quite often when we are forced to call. When we check we look much more SDbound and it may prevent him to bluff us or even vbet us with better hand(like K,Ahigh)

5. betting turn +river vs checking turn+betting river.... when we bet turn we represent totally different hand than when we are checking it and I think its not really funny to say "if we're going to bluff I'd rather have bet the turn" as now pot on the river will be 5BB so we only need to bluff him about 17% which are much better odds.It also have more merit to protect urselves from getting bluffed as pot is bigger now

...still I like check turn the most and I would check most of my range here except very strong hands(which I want to b/3bet),good draws to balance it and with these we dont really need much FE.