Ok here my questions are:
should i cbet
should i bet turn
should i bet river
I have 32 hands on villian he plays 12/6/1. He has folded 2/4 times to flop cbet and has called 1/1 turn cbet.
I decided to make a flop cbet because I believed that with the paird board villian cannot call many cbets. (I considered an estimated 65% success rate accounting for 20% jx, 9% for FD, and 6% for PP). Lookning at it again it seems to be waaay off. I now believe it to have an estimated success rate of less than 60% with 8% for trips+, 26% for jx, 12% for draw, 6% PP. Point is that J88 is not as good as J77!. Looking at it now I also dont like the bet size. I under estimated the flop and should have made it just a bit more, Specifically to outprice T9s ect. {Plz not he did not show T9s }
On the turn I picked up the FD and with the added equity I decided to bet. Looking at it now I still like the bet and the betsize.
The river blanks. The only question that remains is whether we should/could bluff shove. IMHO the only hands in his range that he might fold is 99 or TT which accounts for just over 10% of his range by the river. Even if we can fold out JT and J9 I dont believe we could ever come to the app 40% fe we need.
So I believe c/f is the best.
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$10.59:///////;SB$10.20:///////;BB$20.01:///////;UTG1$13.75:///////;UTG2$9.91:///////;MP1$10.00:///////;MP2 (Hero)$5.60:///////;MP3$10.45:///////;CO$16.21:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:d, K:d.
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, MP3 calls $0.40, 4 folds, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($0.95) J:c, 8:d, 8:c (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50.
Turn: ($1.95) 6:d (2 players)
Hero bets $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00.
River: ($3.95) 9:c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks.
Final Pot: $3.95.
