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Turning third pair into bluff

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SanMomo
Joined: 04.07.2009

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.25/$0.5 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J:c, J:h.
CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-Bets, CO calls.

Flop: (6.4 SB) Q:d, A:d, 7:d (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.2 BB) 3:h (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.2 BB) 9:d (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: 7.2 BB.

His stats over 105 hands: 20/16 VPIP/PFR 29wts 1,4AF


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

This is the kind of hand where I wouldn't say that the play on any particular street is horrible, but the overall result is that the maximum is lost and we don't even see a showdown.

I think that a plan from the flop and on is called for. If I was in the opponents shoes i wouldn't be floating with air, that's for sure. I think that we need to back off at some earlier point, but when? That board is just devastating. Sure, he'll sometimes win with the worst hand, but he is entitled to do that. He has position and is unlikely to screw up big time later in the hand.

A bet on the flop may be enough to push him off a small hand (like a small pp, perhaps even a weak queen). A bet on the turn is targeting flush draws only (why would he fold a queen now?). A bluff bet on the river is targeting aces and perhaps baby flushes (why on earth woul'd he fold a flush or an A if he is still around). It just doesn't look trustworthy taken together. What I'm trying to say is that the chances that he'd fold anything that we'd like him to fold goes down drastically from the flop and on.

/Johan = :f_confused:


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Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

I would not bet turn.If you do it then you do it for slight value against flushes or smaller pairs but against all these hands you can really expect much more than 1bet anyway...so betting for value is not the best thing here.At the same time doing it as bluff is even worse since you hand has decent amount of SD value and will clearly not make anything better to fold on turn.

So check seem by far the best option to me... if he bets I would call one at least.He can do it with FDs and in COs range there are quite a few or even with worse made hands for freeSD,folding on turn without further reads seem slightly too weak,on the other hand I think just c/f is better than betting.

On the river he will never fold a flush!,if he called with FD he for sure will not fold now.I also think that mostly he calls Ax assuming he is thinking. Your bet on this river looks very polorised,you either have a flush or you are bluffing so % of bluffs is reasonably high.Still he sometimes will fold Ax. Then there is which he will fold most of the time but does he have enough of these?...

...I think yes.Imo your hand is a perfect candidate to turn into a bluff at this point just because I dont really think you will end up with that many air hands here and therefore you will not bluff. At the same time you are getting 1:6 on your bet and that should be given and even if you get called there are many positive effect that it will do since players like these will no fold anything anymore.


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