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NL100 river bluffing spot

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PickoCro
Joined: 14.04.2009

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU (Hero)$135.22:///////;SB$94.14:///////;BB$111.53:///////;UTG2$100.00:///////;MP1$35.00:///////;MP2$107.02:///////;MP3$95.50:///////;CO$146.33:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BU with K:d, T:d.
2 folds, MP2 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($8.5) 9:d, 7:c, Q:h (2 players)
MP2 bets $5.38, Hero calls $5.38.

Turn: ($19.26) 6:d (2 players)
MP2 bets $12.20, Hero raises to $30.00, MP2 calls $17.80.

River: ($79.26) 3:s (1 players)
MP2 checks, gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $61.46.

Opponent seems like a capable player, he is imo neither good nor bad (15/12/AFq:50, 1663 hands), and even though i played 1663 hands with him i don t recall having much history with him and have no reads on him, except what his stats already say...

I think everything is pretty standard up until the river, preflop i could 3bet but i decide to just call.

My question is should i be shoving the river when i miss? His turn call seems like aces,kings, or a qx hand, which i think he has to fold otr if i push (i could be playing all sets and made straights the same way), the only hand that calls the river and he plays it like this could be 810 imo, and even that i don t think he d raise preflop with...

If he has a set or 2 pair i assume he has to shove the turn after i raise, because of all the draws, imo he can t flat QQ there and let something like a 10,J or 8 roll of otr, especially since he s oop...

So: a) Do you bluff here?
b) How often do you expect him to call there and show something like 2 pair, or a set?

All help is apreciated.


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lnternet
Joined: 19.06.2012

Preflop is a bit loose. you dont want to call 3.5bb even on the button vs a tight range.

Flop is good.

Turn is OK but I would just call again. You don't want to get 3bet jammed on, and your hand is clearly strong enough to take another card. In general, when your draw is good enough to play it passively, you want to do that. Think about it this way: on the river you know whether you have the nuts or air, so that is the street where you want to decide how much money to put in. So if possible, play it to the river with a good amount of money left.

As played I think he can have hands like AX :diamond: :diamond: against which you absolutely have to bluff. If he has 2pr, AA, KK, Qx, he might call or might fold, impossible to say. But I think your hand is one which has to bluff jam there, as you have few potential bluffs there but a fair amount of value hands.


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