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NL10 - AKo facing a river donk bet.

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I only have 43 hands on this villian but his stats were:
VPIP: 32
PFR: 27
STEAL: 57
Fold to 3bet: unknown
Fold to Cbet: 0

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $10.55 (105.5 bb)
CO: $14.20 (142 bb)
BTN: $9.18 (91.8 bb)
SB: $10.55 (105.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
CO folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.30) K T 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.30, SB calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.90) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80

River: ($10.50) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $5.45 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$10.50 pot ($0.47 rake)
Final Board: K T 5 2 6
Hero mucked A K and lost (-$5.10 net)
SB mucked and won $10.03 ($4.93 net)

My thought process was that he could have a wide range calling my squeeze as he was new to the table and appeared very fishy.

I am confident I have the best hand on the turn and the flop because of his wide range and his passiveness. I think I could be getting value from worse kings, AT, straight and flush draws. I'm not too worried about a set or two pair as he has been so passive and is seems to be quite an aggressive player generally (at least preflop).

When he donk shoves the river I think for a while before deciding he is unlikely to do that with a worse king, AT, or a busted draw. So that only leaves a flush, set or two pair.

Is this a standard fold? Or could he have used the river scare card to turn his hand into a bluff? Are my thought processes ok?

Thanks! :)


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4 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi

You should copy+paste the hand history into pokerstrategy's hand converter, or use some others like handconverter.com so that it's more readable.

River: He certainly reps a flush here but he could very well have the backdoor busted flush draw, or a hand like QJ. I'm not folding such a strong hand here. Remember that you only need to win 25% of the time vs a half pot bet.

I agree that he has the flush really often. Question is whether he has enough bluffs to justify the call. I think so.


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Thanks for the replies to both my posts.

I will post in a different format next time. But please note that I followed the instructions for posting a HM2 hand as detailed in this thread. So it might need updating.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

ah ok,

for some reason the suit doesn't show in this forum, maybe there's something wrong with holdem manager's website. by right it should work.


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TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011

Hey ToucanYrChip,

First of all, welcome to the forum!

The reason images do not show up for you is because you are still a Basic member. Once you reach Bronze status or higher, you will be able to post images on the forum.

You can read all about our status system and how to get Bronze status here: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/status-points/

Kind regards,
Tino


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