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AA vs donk on 3 streets

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Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $40.21 (160.8 bb)
BB: $34.80 (139.2 bb)
UTG: $46.68 (186.7 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $28.67 (114.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $40.96 (163.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) 9 4 K (3 players)
SB bets $1.44, BB folds, Hero calls $1.44

Turn: ($5.13) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $3.28, Hero calls $3.28

River: ($11.69) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $7.47, Hero calls $7.47

Results:

Spoiler

$26.63 pot ($1.20 rake)
Final Board: 9 4 K 4 2
SB showed 9 9 and won $25.43 ($12.49 net)
Hero mucked A A and lost (-$12.94 net)

I think it would have been very weak to fold this hand ott. The BB was a fish so SB could have sets (99,44), but since the board was paired there were only 4 sets to be aware of. The SB also had a very big 3bet percentage so maybe he would have 3bet with 99. And he had a 43 aggression factor. But I am still not sure about my call otr. On the other hand if I am folding this I dont really have hands to call this river bet.

The bb was a 47/16 fish
SB: 24/17/8.5
3bet SB: 15.2
vs BTN: 12.0
wtsd: 26
Aggr: 43,38,53
265 hand


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6 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain seems to be quite aggressive. Some Kx and missed draws are possible. I think calling OTR is reasonable.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Raise flop.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I play call-call-call.

Originally posted by horvathr492
...On the other hand if I am folding this I dont really have hands to call this river bet.

Exaclty!


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msnek
Joined: 01.10.2008

Originally posted by nitrol
Raise flop.

Why ? What better hands are folding ? Or you just want to fold his FDs ?

Originally posted by horvathr492

But I am still not sure about my call otr. On the other hand if I am folding this I dont really have hands to call this river bet.

Yeah, that feels weak. But actually there is quite decent chance it isnt actually a weakness but exploit by us (remember - micros ;) ). I mean, it doesnt have to be weakness at all.

Problem is the best we can hope for here is he bets his FD. Do you have any note on him doing so in the past ? Look for it in your database. Maybe you will find similar spot which you didnt marked. Anyway, it is true he has little combos of those nuts he would bet. But that doesnt matter. He still has them in his range. So the question is what OTHER things does he have in his range. I mentioned FDs. But does ha have anything else in there ? Maybe K9s. But worse hands than ours other than FDs ? I dont think so. How much FDs combos does he have ? You said he is 3beting here a lot. With what kind of hands ? Polarized or depolarized ? If he is 3beting polarized including hands like A2s-A5s or some suited connectors .. he wont have that much FDs combos in his range in this spot now (but there is higher chance he could have these now since there is a fish on BB). Again, look into the dabatabse. Again, maybe you missed some spot which went to showdown. About that bet on the river. We dont know (once again, same story) if he is kind of person who is capable of beting with missed draw.

Anyway, if we dont have (wont find) any more detailed info as I mentioned above, I think I am calling the river and making a note on him according to what he will show me.

P.S.: Now I looked at the spoiler. Well, make a note he is NOT actually 3beting 99 SB vs BTN (fish on blinds), make a note 3barrels from this player = is not bluff. Put "???" marks to these and reduce it one by one if you will see him do the same stuff again. When there will be no "?" left, you got pretty decent reads on him :)


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

so, the opp-t has high 3b, but in this case he decided to call to realise his equite. Most probably I would not see Kx hand in his range bcs he will 3b KQ,KJ,AK, vs BU open. So, He most probably do not has strong K, but we could. That is what he does - he value bets us. I though such betting line is only possible with 2pair+ from opp-t on the wet paired board, I think the worst hand I would see at SD is K9. At NL5 it is easy fold vs 3b barrel OOP.
Just to note - what is his Agression Frequencies and w$sf? His wtsd =26, if his w$sf less than 40 - it is 100% fold on river.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The hand sample is too small to base our decision on those stars.


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