Squeeze or not? KQ x fish short

We squeeze here 100% of the time. This is a lecture spot about squeezing.
And we should not call a shove.

Originally posted by Polezi
Do I squeeze? if I squeeze do I have to call push of fish?

Hi, Polezi,
 I'm with nitrol: This spot is perfect for squeezing.
 What is different is that SB is quite short-stacked.
 You never must call a shove.
 How big to squeeze?

You have 1BB already in the pot, which is now 5BB
You need to put in 1 to win 5, so anything over 20% equity is good.

       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     29.99%  28.89%   1.09% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T3s+, 94s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o }
SB     30.14%  28.52%   1.62% { 99-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo-A9o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
BB     39.87%  38.12%   1.75% { KhQc }

Now the "should I call the shove" part of the question:

Assume you squeeze by betting 8 BB (4x button's raise)

If button folds, SB needs to commit nearly a third of his remaining stack, so he will shove rather than call (if he is a decent player).

So the question is -- what hands would SB shove with that he would not have 3Bet?
Not many, but let's say he is trappy, and flatted BTN w/ QQ+, and the upper part of his original range:

       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     45.83%  41.28%   4.54% { QQ+, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
BB     54.17%  49.63%   4.54% { KhQc }

You're still out front, but its a coin flip now.

Best of luck,
VS

Without very long in-depth analysis, I would say this is always a squeeze. And you never have to go broke here.

I agree with squeezing and disagree with

you never have to go broke here.

If bu 4bets - fold.

If SB pushes - easy call due to pod odds.

Originally posted by Sunrise1912
I agree with squeezing and disagree with

you never have to go broke here.

If bu 4bets - fold.

If SB pushes - easy call due to pod odds.

So you disagree with that we don't have to go broke but then you are saying that we should fold if BTN 4bets?
I count KQo as a bluff squeeze and by squeezing we are definitely not committed to go broke. Or are you going broke with T5s too?
If SB shoves we get a great price but his range probably dominates ours. We don't have to start gambling with him. Ofc calling in that spot can't be very bad but folding is ok too imo.

So you disagree with that we don't have to go broke but then you are saying that we should fold if BTN 4bets?
I count KQo as a bluff squeeze and by squeezing we are definitely not committed to go broke. Or are you going broke with T5s too?
If SB shoves we get a great price but his range probably dominates ours. We don't have to start gambling with him. Ofc calling in that spot can't be very bad but folding is ok too imo.

The thing is that BU will not bluff 4bet against two opponents especially when one of them is fishy - so his range would be value heavy and crushes ours.

The fish on the other hands with stats VPIP: 25, PFR: 22, 3B: 10 would have 3betted every hand that dominates us preflop. So if fish shoves i expect almost always to be flipping agains AJ, AT, lower pocker pairs and to dominate hands like KJ.

Really? The squeeze would be something like 8 bb and the push would be ..., ah, now I see his stack:f_biggrin:. I fully agree. Squeeze and fold to BU and call SB.

I agree that we can call vs SB because he is short. All I'm saying is that we don't "have to" do so necessarily. We will still face a lot of pocket pairs and other broadways, maybe some weaker AX. So it is still a gamble. If hero doesn't like variance, I think it is totally fine to fold after committing only 8bb.

Originally posted by la55i
Without very long in-depth analysis, I would say this is always a squeeze. And you never have to go broke here.

+1. Our hand is a bluff squeeze.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Really? The squeeze would be something like 8 bb and the push would be ..., ah, now I see his stack:f_biggrin:. I fully agree. Squeeze and fold to BU and call SB.

I still do not think it is appropriate to call if SB pushes. AQ is a better option.

Try out Equilab. It will be about 20 bb to call getting MUCHO:1. He'll have enough small pp and shit in his range to make this call mathematically correct. We don't beat his pushing range if that is what you mean...

Edit: I'll admit that I haven't taken this to Equilab. It just seems so obvious. Only against AA/KK/QQ would you feel truly sick.

If my math is correct we need 36%.

MP2 50.00% 48.26% 1.74% KhQs
MP3 50.00% 48.26% 1.74% TT-22, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, ATs-A2s, KJs-KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

I played with different ranges and it seems like we have a profitable call if we assume villain will 3bet the top of his range here. If villain doesn't shove with that wide range, we are closing to be break even with a call. So even if it is mathematically +EV in the long run (don't know exactly how much), would it be bad to just make a 0EV decision to reduce variance?

It seems that I am right.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Try out Equilab. It will be about 20 bb to call getting MUCHO:1. He'll have enough small pp and shit in his range to make this call mathematically correct. We don't beat his pushing range if that is what you mean...

Edit: I'll admit that I haven't taken this to Equilab. It just seems so obvious. Only against AA/KK/QQ would you feel truly sick.

I put some equilab numbers up near the top of this thread.

You could argue with the ranges, but since BU is super-wide here, and SB appears weak, I consider this a value squeeze.
By that I mean that I estimate KQo to be ahead of their combined ranges, and you have good pot odds.

So to make a long story short:
Squeeze, call SB, fold to BU 4Bet.

Yohan mentioned squeeze 8BB, and I agree -- standard is 4x first raise.
I sometimes go higher if there is a raise and 2 callers.

Best of luck,
VS

Nice discussion! Yes, a squeeze for me as well

Originally posted by nitrol
It seems that I am right.
About what?

If it is about calling a SB push, then no. Against it you should call with your entire squeezing range, including bluffs like T♣:7♣: if you happen to bluff with that. You'll be getting nearly 2:1 in pot odds. It is not even remotely debatable, unless you assign an insane limp-capping range to villain.