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Facing Flop Raise MW T8s

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MrPinkii
Joined: 26.02.2009

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 136.4 BB (VPIP: 27.07, PFR: 18.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 134)
SB: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
Hero (BB): 138.8 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.03, PFR: 19.18, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 77)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.77, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 81.4 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ 8♣

fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) A♦ A♣ 9♣
SB checks, Hero bets 1.8 BB, fold, SB raises to 3.6 BB, Hero calls 1.8 BB

Turn: (10.2 BB, 2 players) 7♣
SB checks, Hero bets 7.2 BB, SB raises to 14.4 BB, Hero calls 7.2 BB

River: (39 BB, 2 players) Q♥
SB bets 79.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 79.5 BB

Villains are unknown but seem recreational due to stacksize. After reviewing i would c/c because my draw is weak on the paired board. As played how do i react against the c/r? Is is worthwhile to play a big pot in this spot even that i could be beat right now against 99/A9 or with the risk of facing a higher flush draw? As played fold River?


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6 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I guess we just have to put him on a range and use a calculator.
To call river you need to win it roughly 40% of the times.

I don't know for sure what kind of range this guy can have but I think we can assume recreational player will overplay his Ax here.
If we give him all the possible Ax,99,77,QQ,AA, a lot of better flushes and some weaker flushes (many weaker flushes are quite nicely blocked) you will have 65% equity.

Even if we cut all AXo out of his range you still have that required 40%.

BUT, this seems to be total guessing game. It only depends on how stupid your villain is and how likely he will overplay some hands like weaker flushes on a paired or trips on a flush board.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I would open this preflop. Leadin OTF is fine. River is weird and I think I would find a fold there. The reason is: this is unraised pot and in those we don´t want to play for stack especially if somebody forces us to do so by donking.


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SuperChompa
Joined: 26.07.2016

Ax,99,77,QQ,AA IMO all of that should raise pre-flop.


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rompas
Joined: 12.02.2014

SB shows hes strong at all streets and with full houses or higher flushes that beat us i would fold river, otherwise i would play it same as you.


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

Easy fold river. He is clearly not afraid of the flush at all. I might be calling with K, Q high flushes but T high flush on this board in limped pot is just not good enough to call a whole stack with.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

So villain doesn't have auto-top-up. Then he check-raises flop. Then he check-raises turn. Then he bets 2x river. The board is paired with a possible flush. You then estimate on what to base decisions. Calling here is purely exploitative (and very exploitable).


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