AKo 33 BB call on turbo FT

This is a interesting spot for sure, but to give good feedback it’s good to know what the paid out structure is. Normal I can’t find a fold with AK in a spot like this, but ICM could be cruel here on the moment if we clash as 2nd in chips against the chip leader that most likely is shoving with a capped range.

Cheers,
SDK1987

AKo is a good hand, BUT: it has to hit and very often you have a coinflip with it or your way behind.

No reason to jam and flip with your 33 BB: against any pair you are a slight underdog, against two undercards you are about 60-65% favourite and even against suited connectors you are only 55-60% favourite. So
let´s assume that Villain is an average player. He will defend with: any pair, suited connectors, suited broadways. By the way at those limits normally Villains reraise-repush range isn´t capped.

They push with premium hands as well. In the best case you have 60% equity, in the worst case you´re huge underdog. Besides, there are much shorter stacks at the table. If you loose your equity, it goes over to them. So one more good reason not to risk your equity on a flip.

Just fold here!

Thank You for the opinions! Here is some info which I missed to mention in the first post.

1.) payout structure

1. $337.19 (14.25%)
2. $231.06 (9.86%)
3. $159.91 (6.83%)
4. $110.67 (4.72%
5. $76.59 (3.27%)
6. $53.00 (2.26%)

2. I saw the guy call a double AI with AQo two hands earlier and I made the (wrong?) assumption he might overplay strong Ax hands. Among the 6 players he had the highest PFR with 27 (however only 31 hands on him) Overall he seemed a bit aggressive but this might have been because of his chip lead.

I like very much the reasoning of Primrose and at least if I ever be in a spot like this I will stop to consider a fold (though still not sure however I would fold in the end).

Thank You Poker friends

Tough as it may be in reality, the choice here I think is to fold. What I have learned so far is to try to stay away from CL clashes. We have invested a lot of time to reach the final table and reach for the high payouts to just flip our chances for that. The payout jump (thus ICM taxes) is challenging us to practice here is patience as we have at least one (if not two) clear shortstacks that will have to push almost ATC or get blinded out. Against them I'm more comfortable to push or call wider.

The call would be closer if only I had the information for the CL that he is over-abusing the table thus his pushing range is huge.
Another parameter to make us fold and not feel bad about it, is when we feel that we have a clear edge against the table or at least some of the players.
In that case, if we make the call here we are giving them a easy way out instead of making them take the tough decisions later (not just the villain in the hand, but all). In a way think that if you call here all the other 4 players are happy (almost) because someone got eliminated, they got one step higher in the ladder and the table sometimes looks better with one clear CL instead of two (more chances to make a move yourself).

The call would be closer if only I had the information for the CL that he is over-abusing the table thus his pushing range is huge.

Even then it would be a fold because AK is only 65-70% ahead against any two. In this spot hero needs way more equity, I think about 80%. He could only call with AA and KK as far as I know.

The reason why is that there are shorties at the table and heros chances to get at least runner up are good. As runner up hero wins 231 dollars and as winner 337. The difference is only 106 Dollars, he risks an equity of about 200 bucks to raise it by about only 100 bucks. So if hero doubles up with AK his equity rises only by about 100 dollars because you cannot win more than 337 dollars.

I didn´t calculate, it´s just a rough estimate but according to ICM this is a clear fold.

Thank You All for the comprehensive analysis:f_drink:.

What Primorose6789 is describing is exactly the essence of the strategy article :
"Chip Value (1): The Principle of Diminishing Chip Value" .

also to elaborate a bit on the "closer" comment, I meant that I still believe the right move is to fold but the less of an "abusive" CL the villain is, the easier the decision to fold and vice versa.